by numberFire / @numberFire
The guys from numberFire have been bringing us the NERD Team and NERD Player rankings all season long, harnessing the power of algorithmic modeling to better understand sports. The numberFire Efficiency Rating Derivative (NERD) better evaluates every player and team in the NBA using offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. With the post-season underway, the NERD experts are bringing us more analysis—this time breaking down the Championship odds for each of the eight remaining teams. Below are the Championship odds, as calculated by the NERDs. “Champs” refers to the team’s chances of winning the NBA Finals. “Off.” and “Def.” refer to the teams’ offensive and defensive ratings; these represent the points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. For specific game projections, click here.
numberFire is a sports analytics platform that uses algorithmic modeling to better understand sports—and they’ve developed the numberFire Efficiency Rating Derivative (NERD) to better evaluate every team in the NBA using offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. The nerdier, the better, according to these guys. The NERD rating for teams shows complete production on both sides of the ball. The team ranking is on a scale from 0-100, with 50 as the League average. This ranking is predictive of the team’s ultimate winning percentage. For example, in the 2010-11 season, the Bulls ended with a 75.1 NERD rating—and a 75.6 win percentage. To calculate the NERD rankings we use the Four Factors, which are the factors most predictive in winning games: shooting, turnovers, rebounding, and fouls. Visit numberFire to check out a detailed explanation of the NERD stat for team efficiency and basketball efficiency stats in general.
The NERD power rankings are powered by numberFire, a sports analytics platform that uses algorithmic modeling to better understand sports. Follow Nik Bonaddio at @numberfire, and Keith Goldner at @drivebyfootball. Check out numberFire on Facebook.