Links: Predictions and…Kobe
Why Kobe will win the MVP…
The other afternoon, after that lunch with the Chuckster and EJ and Kenny, after hustling into a cab back to the office, after spending an hour on an NBA TV production conference call as I wrote the post about lunch, while I was editing about a dozen stories for the new issue of SLAM, I realized that it’s time. My summer is over, and the NBA season is upon us, which leaves me grasping for any semblance of free time like I was Larry David falling off a roof.
I mentioned last week that I’d decided that this was going to be a Kobe Bryant breakout season, and if anything, that thought has only strengthened over the last week. (By breakout, I mean I think he’s going to close that gap between him and LeBron in the best player in the League discussions. And I think he’s on track for the MVP, which I wrote in SLAM 133.) Five quick reasons why I think Kobe is due for a huge season, maybe his biggest ever:
1) It cracks me up every time I hear someone argue that Ron Artest is a step down from Trevor Ariza. Really? Really? There’s a reason Trevor Ariza has been on four teams in four seasons. With the Lakers, he found a perfect fit as a complementary player, more importantly, in a system that played up his strong suits and downplayed things he can’t do (like dribbling).
When I was out in Vegas I got to spend some time chatting with Andrew and Brian Kamenetzky, who blog about the Lakers for the LA Times. They mentioned seeing a play in a preseason game where Artest caught the ball at the top of the key, dribble-drove to his left and got right to the rim. It was the kind of play Ariza never was able to do, but the kind of play Artest makes regularly, the kind of play that will make the Lakers a better team. And the people who say Ariza was a great defender? Well, paging Ron Artest! Defense aside, the more offensive weapons Kobe has playing alongside him, the more space that is opened for Kobe. I know Artest has always been more and more prone to force shots throughout his career, but, especially in Sacramento and Houston, Artest was usually the best perimeter player on his team. Playing within the triangle should give him structure, as should being lined up next to Kobe and Odom and Gasol and realizing he doesn’t have to do everything on his own anymore.
2) He’s healthy, at least as healthy as he’s been in a long time. No summer hoops, no surgeries, no court cases. Which meant…
3) Kobe spent the summer working on his post game, at some point connecting with Hakeem Olajuwon. The more dangerous his post game is, the more defenders have to help on him, the more open jumpers for everyone else.
4) The Lakers play 17 of their first 21 games at home. They get that familiarity, get to sleep late, eat at home…and Kobe gets to feel comfortable.
5) Most importantly, to me, nobody is talking about Kobe right now. At that TNT lunch the other day, do you know how much we talked about Kobe? We didn’t. Seriously, I can’t remember Kobe being mentioned at all, other than vaguely and in passing.
It’s strange to think of Kobe as being under-noticed, but if anything, that’s what’s been going on the last two months. While everyone talked about Ron and about Lamar and Khloe, Kobe was putting in work.
Nobody’s concentrating on Kobe right now, and that’s not something Kobe likes. How does he get all eyez on he? Play dominant basketball.
• I know that there are many people these days who massage numbers and statistics in order to try and predict the NBA standings. Well, when writing the annual SLAM NBA Preview, I don’t. Instead, using an unusual mixture of accumulated intelligence and insight gleaned from people who both cover and work with these teams and players, I have made my annual predictions in SLAM 133 (on sale now!). And now, presented totally without context (of which there is plenty of within the actual magazine), here’s how I project this season’s final rankings:
Atlantic
1. Boston
2. Philly
3. Toronto
4. Jersey
5. New York
Central
1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. Indiana
4. Chicago
5. Milwaukee
Southeast
1. Orlando
2. Atlanta
3. Washington
4. Miami
5. Charlotte
Northwest
1. Denver
2. Portland
3. Utah
4. OKC
5. Minnesota
Southwest
1. San Antonio
2. Dallas
3. New Orleans
4. Houston
5. Memphis
Pacific
1. Lakers
2. Clippers
3. Phoenix
4. Golden State
5. Sacto
And I’ve got L.A./Cleveland in the Finals. (I know, the Cavs are 0-2! The horror! Hopefully they’ll get to play another, I don’t know, 80 games!) The champs? Lakers.
That’s it. Catch you guys next week.
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good predictions…why Chicago so low?
Ariza just blossom in the triangle now we’ll see how he does in houston
1) Orl & Bos got so much better & deeper in the offseason, the gap between Cavs and those two just got wider
2) They still run the same stale offence which involves LeBron doing it all, the top teams will happily let LeBron get his in so far as his teammates are only contibuting for ,40/50 pts, compared to Orl & Bos who both have more balanced offenses.
3) The still have Mike (Coach of the year) Brown as their coach. I know it’s early but I wouldn’t count against a 5 game win differential between them and the Wiz come the end of the season. I love the Lakers but I find it hard to see past Boston winning it all if healthy, they’re just too deep, experienced, mature & gully.
as for bulls and pacers, really? so you think Granger has a better supporting cast than Rose does? i thought that’s a stretch, but you are possibly right. i’m guessing you are not picking the bulls to make the playoffs then. come to think of it, they’ll probably get murdered by the spurs tonight. let’s see if Rose will get shut down tonight.
the Spurs, who were injured much of the year, come back MUCH better. A healthy Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, Blair…why aren’t more people picking these guys? I get that the Lakers are a top team, but these Spurs boast four all stars in their starting line up and amazing role players.
I’d still take Ron Artest though.
With the positioning, Toronto might only be a game behind Philly. You don’t know. Or it could be 10 games.
The ONLY team that beats the Suns in the Pacific is the Lakers, and by not that much either.
1. Boston - most intune team will be back to top gear
2. Toronto - will surprise EVERYONE this season
3. Philly - read above…
4. New York - quickest team in east = tastiest snot.
5. New Jersey - surprisingly will miss Carters HEART. Central
1. Cleveland - Will streak ahead after slow start
2. Chicago - the best left in the weakest div.
3. Detroit - team struggling to find new face.
4. Milwaukee - injuries will make bad team worse.
5. Indiana - Granger will explode, no one will see it Southeast
1. Orlando - Dwight dominates from within 14 feet!
2. Washington - agent zero has license to THRILL.
3. Atlanta - teams identity established!
4. Miami - Rounds out the strongest division EVER.
5. Charlotte - Was A.I coming here? Northwest
1. Denver - Strongest team to face LA in WCF
2. Utah - Paul Millsap got ROBBED a starting pos.
3. Portland - GO gets younger. BRoy takes over?
4. OKC - Durant explodes (see indy comment)
5. Minnesota - will give up by Feb (again…) Southwest
1. Dallas - 1 Kidd healthy = matrix/Nowitzki nirvana
2. New Orleans - Byron Scott unfolds arms.
3. San Antonio - injuries and age = HUGE OBSTACLE
4. Houston - read as above, but even worse.
5. Memphis - wheres that #1 draft pick? Pacific
1. Lakers - Kobe & Artest = Jordan & Rodman remix.
2. Phoenix - the fastest team wins 2.0
3. Golden State - will entertain like suns, less wins
4. Clippers - Will blake PLAy when he plays?
5. Sacto - ROY wont be seen on national TV…
“We did not bring him here to be a passer,” Alvin Gentry said regarding Channing Frye’s VERY quick start, shooting wise into the season. He has just topped his career high of THREE’s made in a season (13), which he’s done 3 games into this season. THE MAN HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY WORKING ON HIS SHOT.
Bleacher report: Who’s better, Kobe or LeBron? It’s no debate at all. In the same manner in which Kobe Bryant was unfairly compared to Michael Jordan in the late ’90s, the debate continues with LeBron James being similarly compared to Kobe. Some fans and pundits have even had the temerity to go as far as saying that James has already surpassed Bryant as a player. They reinforce their arguments with statistics and the many milestones that James has accomplished at such an early age. Many of these same milestones are marks that Kobe held until James surpassed them. There are areas of the game where James holds an advantage over Kobe, most noticeably the physical specimen department, but most arguments are based on the potential of James and not his current accomplishments. The only problem with gazing into the crystal ball is that sometimes the present intervenes and renders all predictions useless. It’s much better to live in the present, and based on that, the James argument doesn’t hold up. While James and Bryant are great players, there are some areas that James has yet to catch up, and in some cases, never will. The part of LeBron’s game that has seen the biggest improvement is on the defensive end. He is still a much better help defender than ball defender, but his man-to-man defense is steadily improving. As a youngster James was able to rely on his superior athletic ability to mask his shortcomings on the defensive end. He was simply able to overwhelm opponents with his quickness, size, and strength. It was clear early in his career that he had the proper defensive principles, but he lacked the technique. His defensive posture was bad, and he had a habit of crossing his feet instead of sliding them. James has taken steps to correct this and it’s evident in his game, as he has become a better on-ball defender, which helps complement his superior ball-hawking skills. Kobe had no such problem, as he was an excellent defensive player from the time he entered the league. His man-to-man skills remain superb, and he has the ability to lock down an opponent almost at will. Bryant was obviously schooled on the importance of defense and that can in part be attributed to his NBA lineage. He recognized the influence that getting stops has on a game and the way it contributes to momentum swings. Conversely, James is a product of the AAU circuit and the various summer leagues, which place a low premium on defense and emphasize the highlight aspect of the game. Michael Jordan’s footprints are all over another aspect of Kobe’s game, which is sometimes called the lost art of the mid-range jump shot. It became the most dangerous weapon in Jordan’s arsenal, and Bryant has emulated it to the barest degree. His ability to pull up from anywhere within 18 feet has made Bryant one of the most versatile offensive players in NBA history. This is the part of LeBron’s game that could use the most work, as all of his damage is done either from distance or at the rim, there is hardly any in-between. A mid-range jumper is something that you have to work at, and the evidence is spread throughout the league, with only a handful of players showing the ability to master it. Besides being the ultimate student of the game, Bryant is probably one of the most fundamentally sound. His techniques on both ends of the floor could be used in basketball tutorials. James is no slouch in the fundamental department, but Bryant is above reproach. I’m not sure if even the most dedicated regimen could put James in Bryant’s class, which may be second only to Jordan himself. I feel that all of the above points are solid, but they can be argued, alas this one can’t. The hardware disparity is real and it has grown since James has been in the league. I have stated that it is fruitless to argue what James may accomplish in the future because we live in the present. The Kobe and Jordan argument would have never started if Kobe was unable to win a ring. Charles Barkley and Karl Malone are considered two of the best power forwards to play the game, but they are trumped by Tim Duncan, and the argument will always end with the number of rings Duncan is wearing. Likewise with John Stockton and Magic Johnson. Stockton may hold the assists record, but how many of those assists ever accounted for championships? This is the final peg on which Kobe hangs his hat. LeBron has the potential to be the greatest player ever, but tomorrow is never promised. I pay homage to the greatest active player today, who has the game and championships to back it up. Until LeBron wins a ring he will be relegated to second-hand status.
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