September 9, 2009 5:24 pm  |  13 Comments

College Preseason Top 25: No. 3, Michigan State

The Spartans are looking to eclipse last year’s win total by one.

by Joey Whelan

So what can the Michigan State Spartans do for an encore this year after posting 31 wins and earning a berth in the National Championship game this past March? Win one more game. Tom Izzo certainly lost some vital pieces to his runner-up team in the departure of big man Goran Suton to the NBA and the graduation of defensive stud Travis Walton, but an experienced returning roster - which will be boosted by the arrival of a pair of impact big men - will make the mean green a major threat to hoist the hardware come March.

The return of Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas will give MSU the nation’s best point guard. The rising junior is the consummate floor general, possessing all the skills coaches look for in a player to run their offense. Lucas has great handles, nothing overly flashy, but just enough to operate on the perimeter and penetrate the defense. His passing game is fantastic, rarely making a poor decision and showing a real knack for simply distributing the rock in a nice, crisp fashion. It’s a telling statistic that his assist-to-turnover ratio actually got better with more playing time as a sophomore; in most cases the reverse is true. He has also already shown a propensity for making nice reads out of the pick and roll, a skill that will no doubt catch the eye of plenty an NBA scout. As far as his ability to score, Lucas is a good spot up shooter from the perimeter (39 percent) and while he can shoot off the dribble as well, he isn’t nearly as effective when on the move. He knows how to break down defenders in isolation situations and can score in the paint, but his size is definitely holding him back from being more of a threat around the rim. Lucas has also proven to be a strong defender, though he was often overshadowed by teammate Travis Walton in this regard. Regardless of how much he does at this end of the floor, the Spartans will likely be running very smooth offensively again this season thanks to the man handling the basketball.

Junior Durrell Summers should be on the receiving end of plenty Lucas passes this season after emerging as a viable scoring option in his first year of seeing major minutes. The Detroit native saw his playing time double and responded my nearly doubling his offensive production, while proving to be a fairly efficient scorer from the floor, scoring nearly one point per possession. The 6-4 guard builds his game around his shooting, with nearly three-quarters of his shot attempts coming as jumpers. Summers definitely prefers to spot up, catch and shoot, something he was pretty successful at last season, connecting on 38.5 percent of his perimeter shots. When he does opt to put the ball on the floor, he certainly favors going to the right side, so shoring up his left would be in his best interest. Even in these set ups though, he falls back on the jump shot, more often than not pulling up before continuing on his path to the basket. Aside from gunning away on the perimeter, the third year man gets the bulk of his touches in transition, showing a knack for running the lanes well and having a good sense of spacing. His lack of a left hand is still apparent though in that he tends to stay on the right side of the court when at all possible. Even though he was inconsistent last season (due in large part to being a fourth or fifth scoring option at times) 20-point games against Minnesota, Iowa and Ohio State are definitely a sign of bigger things to come.

Chris Allen struggled at points with his efficiency last season coming off a freshman year where he was hampered by a stress fracture in his foot. Still, there is reason for optimism that the rising junior will start to reach the potential he showed as a top flight prospect out of Georgia a few years ago. Known as a shooter with good athleticism when he first arrived in East Lansing in 2007, Allen as yet to find his stroke from the perimeter during his career, shooting a rather mundane 31 percent from beyond the arc last season on more than four attempts per game. The 6-3 two-guard was at his best shooting off the dribble from mid-range, proving to be far more efficient here than anywhere else on the floor. The interesting about Allen’s game right now though, is as effective as he has been shooting off the dribble, he shoots very poorly when catching and shooting coming off of screens, an unusual quirk to his game which shows that he needs to get his timing down a bit before he can be a complete shooting threat. It’s not surprise that as a solid athlete like Summers, Allen gets a good number of his points in transition as well, though he is at his best when he can dictate the action as the ball handler. Between injury and a subsequent sophomore slump, the Lawrenceville native may be flying under the radar - especially after barely registering during the NCAA Tournament run last year - but if he is able to put it all together this season the Spartans will have two excellent perimeter weapons on the wing.

The player that everyone will have their eyes on though is senior small forward Raymar Morgan, who as a result of health issues has never completely lived up to the expectations of many Spartan fans. After averaging 15 and 6 as a sophomore on 56 percent shooting, the Ohio native looked ready for an all-conference type of season in his junior campaign. Despite a somewhat inconsistent start to the year, Morgan looked to be on his way, averaging 15 and 7 during the first two months of the season before he was struck down with a case of the flu that developed into an upper respiratory infection. A strong 18-point, 9-rebound showing in the national semi-final against Connecticut could be a sign of a major senior year on the way though. Morgan’s length and athleticism coupled with his toughness make him a strong scorer in transition and when posting up smaller perimeter players. On the break he runs the floor well and surprisingly does a pretty good job of handling the ball in transition - surprising because he struggles to create looks for himself off the bounce in the half court set. Range continues to be a problem for Morgan as he has never been much of a perimeter shooter, but he has become more of a threat to connect from mid-range, a facet of his game that needs to continue developing. Again though, this is a player who likes to attack on the move as shown by the fact that nearly three-quarters of his touches in isolation sets end with him putting the ball on the floor in some manner. Morgan certainly has the ability and experience to still emerge as one of the premiere players in the Big Ten this season - a fact that would make Michigan State a potential juggernaut in the conference - but will he be able to stay healthy all the way through?

Backup point guard Korie Lucious shouldn’t expect big minutes as a sophomore given that Kalin Lucas will be on the floor a lot, but there may not have been a single youngster on the Spartan roster who showed more flashes of potential than the pint sized floor general. Lucious dealt out 11 assists in 13 minutes in a December game against Alcorn State and in the Big Ten Tournament dropped 16 points against Ohio State in just 18 minutes. Again, don’t expect to see a tremendous jump from his nine minutes of action per game, but certainly if he can spell Lucas for stretches during the season while managing to still run the offense that is all Tom Izzo can ask for. Any mini offensive explosions are simply icing on the cake for the Milwaukee native.

The loss of Goran Suton inside will be offset by the return of a pair of experienced frontcourt players and two incoming freshman. Delvon Roe was very solid in his time on the floor during his freshman season and the power forward looks primed for a breakout campaign this year. He has the athleticism to one day be a face up threat, at least at the college level, but currently gets the bulk of his touches in the post and on the offensive glass. The youngster’s back to the basket game is still a work in progress, but he has very solid footwork and shows a lot of potential to be a big time scorer in the paint. Roe has a great built for the frontcourt at this level, wiry but strong 6-8 frame with a very long wingspan. He’ll be more than a year removed from micro fracture surgery when the season gets underway, so his explosiveness should be pretty close to back to normal, something that will make him even more of a rebounding machine than he was last year. Roe’s per-40 minute numbers were better than 10 and 10 last year, a testament to his blossoming talents and tremendous hustle. With an increase in playing time and touches, we are looking at a player who could emerge as an all-conference performer in his second year at the college level.

Undersized forward Draymond Green also showed a good amount of potential during his first season in green. Like Roe, the Michigan native averaged a double-double in his per-40 minute averages, thanks in large part to his hustle on the offensive glass. Green averaged better than one offensive rebound per game in just 11 minutes of action, and proved to be a great finisher around the cylinder. His work in the post has been solid as he finishes at a fairly consistent rate with his back to the basket, but this will of course continue to develop as he sees more action on the court. Green certainly won’t be the focal point of the MSU frontcourt offense, but his contributions will be important as a role player.

Freshman bigs Derrick Nix and Garrick Sherman will have to help contribute inside from the early part of the season and on - though they won’t have to carry the entire load. Nix, a massive 6-9 275-pound center from Pershing High School, has very soft hands for a big man and knows how to finish on the block. The biggest concerns for him entering the year have focused around his conditioning and his continued dedication to slimming down - something he has shown progress in. Regardless of how much time he spends on the floor this year, Nix is going to give Michigan State a big frame in the middle that will help on the glass and provide a physical presence on the defensive end to prevent easy looks for opposing frontcourt players. Sherman is a 6-10 forward who will be a nice scoring option out of the high post given the nice touch he shows on a developing mid-range jumper. He can finish with both hands in the paint and has a smooth post game, but will need to become tougher in order to handle to rigors of life in the paint at the D-1 level. Redshirt junior Tom Herzog will see some minutes inside as well. The 7-footer has never seen much playing time and he won’t suddenly get starters minutes, but if he can provide a handful of rebounds and alter some shots during his time on the floor he will greatly help out the frontcourt rotation.

There’s little doubt that entering the season the Spartans are going to be the pick for the class of the Big Ten. There is a bevy of experience on the roster coupled with talented youth. The backcourt will be solid with Lucas, Morgan and a slew of other upperclassmen back on the floor, but there will be questions inside. Certainly the presence of a consistent force like Suton was a major factor in Michigan State’s success last year, but if the youngsters down low can step up the line come tip-off time, there is no reason their production can’t exceed the production from a year ago. Let’s not forget either, when March rolls around, there are few coaches who get their team ready to play better than Tom Izzo. That fact alone almost always makes MSU a threat to make a deep run into the postseason and this year should be no different.