Thursday, October 9th, 2008 at 9:03 am  |  44 responses

Portland Trail Blazers Season Preview

How much further can Oden take the young Blazers?

We continue previewing the Northwest Division with the Portland Trail Blazers. You can read past previews here.

by Nima Zarrabi

It happened last year on a Thursday in September. Portland Trail Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard, fighting back tears, gathered up the local media for a presser and announced to the world that No. 1 overall pick and potential franchise savior Greg Oden would be out for the entire season after undergoing microfracture surgery on his knee.

The hoops world was blindsided. Oden’s summer league season had been dashed after two games a few months prior, with the team shutting him down so he could have his tonsils removed. We figured he would slam back several cases of pudding and be back in action by the time camp opened in October. It had been quite sometime since a No. 1 pick had received the hype and excitement of Oden. His sensational freshman season in leading Ohio State to the Final Four, coupled with his unique personality piqued many NBA fans’ interests.

The fans in Portland were revitalized after the drafting of the 7-footer. Hours after he was drafted, the Blazers held a rally on a rainy day in Portland to introduce Oden to fans. Thousands showed up, some actually screaming at the sight. Oden did a few dances on stage, signed autographs and flashed that millie smile. They were hooked.

Fast forward back to that press conference with Pritchard at the helm, flanked by coach Nate McMillan and Team President Larry Miller. We would go on to hear about “pristine knees” and bedside apologies from G.O. The Blazers season was doomed. Yeah, there was improvement in many of their young players and a nifty 13-game winning streak but 41-41 was all they could muster without their savior.

When I caught up with Brandon Roy this summer, he declared this year would be different. But he also told me that he was healthy and ready to go. He had knee surgery a few days later. Roy is slated to be healthy by the time the season tips and that will be critical for Portland. A supreme talent, Roy made his First All-Star game last year in his second season, putting up 19 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds per game. Unfortunately for the Blaze, they will have to worry about the health of a few more players throughout the season. I will highlight those concerns in my positional breakdown.

Point Guard:

As much as I like Duke-killer Steve Blake, I’m not sure if he’s Portland’s answer at the point. He started 78 games last season, averaging 8.5 points and 6 assists while shooting a 40 percent from three-point range. At the end of several games, the Blazers opted for the versatile Roy at PG. The position will be upgraded significantly with the addition of Spanish League MVP Rudy Fernandez. Those who watched the Olympics this summer know exactly who this cat is. Fernandez dazzled throughout the tournament, capped by a superb display against the USA in the gold medal game where he will be remembered for putting an ill dunk down on Dwight Howard. After a nice debut in the Blazers preseason opener, Fernandez sustained an ankle injury last night. The 6-6, 185-pounder will be out the next few games—Portland has deemed it a sprained ankle. With Blake nursing a hamstring injury, they will have to go with Sergio Rodriguez and 1st rounder Jerryd Bayless at the position for the rest of the preseason. Rodriguez showed some promise as a reserve last year while Bayless scorched the Vegas Summer league in July, scooping up MVP honors after posting nearly 30 points per game. The 6-3 Bayless might be better suited for the off-guard position but look for the Blazers to experiment with him in the same backcourt as Roy.

Shooting guard:

Portland has a number of players who can play both the 2 and the 3 positions, giving them some unique versatility at both positions. Roy can essentially play three positions but is probably more comfortable at the two. He will be limited during the preseason while the Blazers monitor the rehab on his knee. Bayless will definitely get some run and the Blazers could potentially use rookie Nicolas Batum there as well.

Small forward:

The Blazers will miss the sweet shooting stroke of James Jones. They were hoping youngster Martell Webster—70 starts and 39 percent from three-point range—could fill the void. Webster broke a bone in his foot recently and could be out eight weeks. Travis Outlaw, coming off his best season, should step in nicely. His fifth season since entering the league straight out of high school, Outlaw was a key reserve for Portland last year, putting up 13 points and 5 rebounds per, while appearing in all 82 games. Batum could see some action at this position as well.

Power Forward:

The Blazers are extremely deep in the frontcourt, led by emerging superstar LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge had a remarkable sophomore campaign, emerging as the Blazers low post threat. In 76 starts last year, Aldridge posted per game averages of nearly 18 points and 8 rebounds per game. He is expected to be even better this year with Oden next to him in the post. Channing Frye was slated as the backup PF, but he recently had bone spurs removed from his left ankle and will be out 2 months. His injury will open the door for Ike Diogu, a big bodied post who was acquired in the off-season from Indiana. A lottery pick in 2005, Diogu has always been considered a talented big man, but injuries have slowed his development. With Frye out to start the season, he will have good opportunities to showcase his skills.

Center:

Oden’s 13 point, 5 rebound, 2 block performance in the Blazers preseason debut has Portland fans predicting rookie of the year honors. Oden appeared to be moving well despite his limited game action. The Blazers are surely counting on his defensive presence—something they missed dearly last year. Fan favorite Joel Przybilla will serve as Oden’s backup. Aldridge and Frye can slide over to center if needed, but big man Raef LaFrentz will be gone for the season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum last month.

Predictions:

Barring injuries, Portland’s optimal starting lineup will consist of Fernandez at the point, Roy at the 2, Outlaw at the 3 to go with Aldridge and Oden in the post. That should be more than enough to get the Rose Garden rocking again. With some good depth on the bench and a great coach in Nate McMillan, I expect the Blazers to easily make the Playoffs this year. I’m not sure if they can get better than a No. 6 seed—the West is still the West. The lone team in the Pacific Northwest could be one of the most exciting teams to watch this year, but injuries will continue to be a concern. While Roy is the player this team cannot do without, the season will likely ride on the availability of Oden.

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  • http://slamonline.com alapatrick

    1st

  • http://slamonline.com alapatrick

    this team is stacked with talent.
    if they can stay healthy, the league should watch out.

  • Scott

    For one, Rudy plays the 2, not the point.

    I also completely disagree about Roy being the player the team can do without. He is not only the team’s leader (and damn near elder statesman after 4 years at UW) but their most dependable offensive player. I would agree that he is the most replaceable behind Oden and Aldridge, but that doesn’t underscore his importance to this team.

  • matt the jazz fan

    ??? roy is the player the team canNOT do without, i guess yuo must have meant in the last sentence…
    also:
    who come in ahead of the blazers according to you. i can see the jazz (surprise surprise), san antonio, l.a. and new orleans. but who’s the fifth? phoenix/houston? not so sure… my prognosis: 5th seed and victory in game seven against (and at) san antonio!

  • matt the jazz fan

    in the first round, i meant. then an almost-sweep at the hands of the lakers.

  • http://shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    Damn, I forgot all about Ike Diogu, who was a beast at Arizona State. Fernandez at PG confusues me. Didn’t he play the ’2′ in the olympics?

  • http://AllAbout-Penis-Enlargement.com Jukai

    Fernandez is a two guard, completely. He rarely ever played another position in his entire career, and when he did, it was at the three. Sooo… yeah.

  • http://AllAbout-Penis-Enlargement.com Jukai

    I figured, with Webster injured, the lineup would be like this:
    Blake —> Rodriguez —> Bayless
    Roy —> Bayless —> Bautum
    Rudy —> Outlaw
    Aldridge —> Diogu
    Oden —> ???

    Once Webster and Frye get back, I have no idea how they will slide things.

  • http://www.youtube.com/teamairyork blackice87

    This team seems to be stacked but injuries are happening to all their young talent (everybody), I’m afriad by the time that they get it together that contract situations will break the team apart.

    If they are together in 3 years with continually indiviual growth by all their players I could see them winning the chip.

  • http://shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    Blake should definitely start with all of the scorers the Blazers have. He isn’t spectacular, but he is consistent.

  • JE

    I really hope the core of this team stays intact for a long time. They’re a dynasty in the making, for sure.

  • niQ

    Rodriguez is VERY UNDERRATED! portland has some sick point guards.

  • riggs

    did u forget about rodriguez nima?

  • http://www.freewebs.com/betcats BETCATS

    The Blazers are good enought for a 8th seed

  • nacho

    i have an inside source that says, that frye will be ready by opening night. he is recovering much quicker from his ankle surgery and should be cleared for the last week of training camp.

  • Lz – Cphfinest3

    Stacked and young team bound for greatness if kept intact. Sureshot playoffs appearance this season. Oden ROY. Rudy is not a point though, more of a shooting/combo guard. GO BLAZERS!

  • http://www.sprint.com/sero Dma

    Does your inside source happen to be on TV because it was announced during last night’s game that Frye was probably going to be playing when the Blazers open up against the Lakers. Like I’ve said many times, this will be a fun learning year. Next year will be the year the Blazers do some big things. Watching the scrubs from last night, Batum looked hella athletic and full of energy last night, Luke Jackson still sucks, and Steven Hill will eat your children if you’re not watching them. Joel Zilla is the best backup center in the league. Hands down. Travis Outlaw needs to wake up from his sleepwalk the last two games. He was bricktastic last night.

  • http://AllAbout-Penis-Enlargement.com Jukai

    Was that really announced? Wow, go Frye. Portland is sick.

  • Paniscus

    Future contract concerns are legitimate, but it’s nice having one of the richest men in the world as your team’s owner. $Paul$Allen$ love$ thi$ team, and $hould be happy to $pend to keep it together.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Nima Zarrabi

    @ Scott and matt the Jazz fan: yes, that is a typo on my part. I meant, the player they CANNOT do without. Believe me, I know how special Brandon is. As far as Rudy goes, I see your point on the combo guard thing. The Blazers have so many verstile players in the backcourt. I think we’re going to see plenty of different variations througout the year. Rudy has a PG mentality and I think he can definitely play the position. I didn’t forget Sergio. I gave him a brief mention. He’s definitely talented, but may have to fight for playing time if the other guys are healthy.

  • doyouwantmore

    I have never felt that there was a ‘next Micheal’ until I saw Kevin Durant.

    Oden and the Blazers however will win a championship waaay before Durant leaves the OKC thunder to go to San Antonio.

  • rav

    just got nba 2k9 a day early – if rudy can shoot in real life like he can in the game…

  • Don

    This article is horrible. Rudy does not play the point. He plays shooting guard and can play occasionally at SF. If he plays alongside of Roy, Roy will be the point and Rudy the 2. Outlaw may indeed start for the first month, but only because of the injury to Webster. And Blake is the most improved Blazer – he is going to be a very good point guard this year. Bayless has all kinds of potential, but he’s not ready to get heavy minutes yet. And “41-41 was all they could muster”? Man, this was the youngest team in the league, with 4 of 5 starters in the league for 3 years or less. 41 wins in a very tough Western conference for such a young team is “all they could muster”? That was far better than expectations. But your biggest gaffe was stating that Roy is the player Portland can do without. Like I said, this article is horrible. And such a limited understanding of an NBA team should exclude you from making any kind of projections.

  • Don

    By the time my post came up, I saw that you had corrected the Brandon thing. So I take back 1/2 of my criticism. Still, there are plenty of errors.

  • http://AllAbout-Penis-Enlargement.com Jukai

    @Nima: I know Rudy is a good passer in the same way Kobe and Ray Allen and T-Mac are good passers, but the dude will never play point. He can’t create plays, he’s more athletics than ball-handling, and he’s just too effective as a scorer. Besides, with Blake/Sergio/half-of-Bayless at PG and Roy playing some point in the crunch, why in the world would Rudy ever see time there?
    @Don: Except to see Fernandez at the three a LOT, especially with Webster out

  • http://AllAbout-Penis-Enlargement.com Jukai

    except = expect

  • jrp14

    Being from Portland and hearing a lot about Rudy and finding out whatever i could about him, then seeing him play these last two games: he could definitely start at the 1, and he played some 1 in both games. The starting lineup the guy had in the article will probably be right, although during the game Roy and Rudy could switch responsibilities. Also, Bayless looked really good last night, and while Steve Blake is no slouch, I don’t possibly see how he could ever start over either of these guys, even though neither of them are true point guards. Roy said in an interview that he likes Bayless’s style because he plays like a two but can guard the one, and Roy likes that because he is usually handling the ball and he can guard the bigger guards.

  • http://www.myspace.com/brinaro22 Brina22

    Rudy is not going to be the starting point…can play some point, but is not going to see the majority of his minutes at that position. Batum is not a 2 guard…and more than likely will be in the D-league so he can get some minutes.

    I bet we see Outlaw playing some 4, like he did last year…as well as being the starting 3 til Martell is back.

    Blazers can go small with a lineup of Bayless, Rudy, Roy, Outlaw, and your choice of Oden/Pryzbilla/Aldridge/Diogu/Frye.

    The point being, the Blazers have a ton of depth, and a ton of talent….and can mix and match their line up according to their opponent. Just a matter of getting the right chemistry out there.

  • http://AllAbout-Penis-Enlargement.com Jukai

    jrp14: if you know about Rudy so much, you do know he’s never played the one in any Euroleague games in his professional career, correct?
    Brina22: I really don’t like the thought of a combo guard starting. If you’re an undersized shooting guard, you come off the bench to provide the spark. I think Bayless over-dominating the ball against the second level players would be the best thing Portland can do.

  • http://hibachi20.blogspot.com DP

    Oden looks like a f*cking beast my goodness the ROY might be wrapped up already.

  • Farman Asaidali

    Don, explain to me like I’m a village idiot why this article is horrible. You sound like a true Portland homer! Explain why he can’t play the point. Did you see any of the guards on the U.S. Olympic team try to shut down Rudy? You didn’t!! Steve Blake is not a starting point guard in this league. As least not for a playoff team. Didn’t work in Denver. Didn’t work in Milwaukee. And, it didn’t work in Washington. If I am missing other teams that he played for in his short career so far, I rest my case. JOURNEY!!!! But with that said, he is a great 20 to 25 minute back up. As for the point guard position, it’s not needed in every system. Nate ran Brent Barry in Seattle with Ray Allen after they traded the GLOVE. And please don’t respond with “that’s why Seattle sucked.” Well, with that line-up of Ray Allen and Brent Barry, then took the Spurs to game 6 in the second round. Also, Antonio Daniels was the back up for both players. So Roy and Fernandez can work at the same time and have Blake come off the bench. You haven’t seen it happen, so don’t say things you haven’t seen work yet. Coach Nate is a great coach and gets the most out of his players. You don’t get 28 million for no reason. If Travis Outlaw can improved his play from last year a little more, and get Greg Oden to play 22-25 minutes a game regardless of his numbers, Portland is a lock for the playoffs. Brandon Roy is the face of that state. No one comes close. You have a true star in your hands and you need to imbrace him like you Portland fans did with “The Glide”……RIP Kevin Duckworth………

  • http://AllAbout-Penis-Enlargement.com Jukai

    Farman Asaidali: Rudy will not (or should not) play point because he can’t keep up a dribble inside the paint and he can’t create passing lanes. I’m not saying Blake can, but the way Portland functions is that the PG controls the tempo and the ball is either thrown down to a bigman in the middle of Roy is given the ball and makes a play. Rudy is great at seeing an open man and nailing him, but he can’t draw in defenders or monitor his surroundings while he’s dribbling in the paint. He just can’t. It’d be unfair to bring that upon him. He’s just so much more effective in the two or the three, moving off the ball, shooting spot-up threes, occassionally taking the rock and slashing.
    The article was not horrible, but Rudy will NOT play point. He just wont. Blake is a passable starting point guard, but they don’t need a guy who can control the ball when you have four-legit all stars in the two through five spot. Don’t expect to see it.

  • Farman Asaidali

    Jukai, I totally agree with what you are saying. I am not asking him to start. I’m saying that combo would work and Roy being the floor general. Nate, doesn’t run a uptempo offense. So it really doesn’t matter who brings up to the. It’s who calls the plays. this is coming from a point guard’s mind. ME. What I said earlier should be said next year, or the year after. I am a huge fan of big combo guards. The bulls did it, and so did the Lakers with Harper and Showbe. It comes down to this, you have to have Rudy on the floor as much as possible. His talent is off the charts. Losing James Jones might really hurt this team in the long run. Not a fan of Webster, and they really don’t have a guy to stretch the court. Don’t be surprised to see Starbury in a Blazer uniform…..can you say buyout coming!!!!!!!!

  • http://www.slamonline.com Nima Zarrabi

    Jukai: Nice link. Funny stuff, dude. Brinna22: Good luck this season. You should blog about your hoop expereinces overseas. That would be cool.

  • http://AllAbout-Penis-Enlargement.com Jukai

    Farman: I’m in total agreement too, but I worry about putting too much of the ball handling load on Brandon Roy. Even just having Steve/Sergio walk/run the ball up the court without getting it stolen means Roy will have more time to walk up and set himself and not have to worry about guarding people away from the ball until he gets it in his hands.
    Exactly who did the Bulls use as a tall combo guard?
    @Nima: I should probably change the link. People at work don’t like it as much. I put it there because everyone was advertising their blogs on their name, and I was hating on them, so I was pretending to advertise mine.

  • Farman Asaidali

    Jukai–The bulls used Harper and Jordan together for one year. Basically Pippen and Jordan handled the ball and had Paxson, Hodges, and BJ Armstrong on the weakside standing waiting for the ball. Brandon Roy is a Stud. Don’t worry about the load. The kid is money………..

  • http://AllAbout-Penis-Enlargement.com Jukai

    Interesting accessment, Farman, but I feel that Harper was more of a shooting guard that played the point because of Jordan, while Bayless is a legit combo guard. Harper could spot up and shoot, was an awesome, hardnosed defender, a TERRIFYING match-up nightmare both on defense and in the post, and a guy who didn’t need the ball to score. Bayless needs the ball in his hands to drive or take a few dribbles before he takes his shot… he’s not nearly as tall, and not a great defender. He does not move well without the ball.
    I could be wrong though. Admittantly, I’m not a huge Bayless fan.

  • http://AllAbout-Penis-Enlargement.com Jukai

    I get your Steve Blake point now though… instead of having a guy who has the ball and controls the tempo, put a guy there who can spot-up shoot and defend… while Roy and Rudy take care of handling the ball. It’s a nice idea, but I still think Roy should stay at the two and Rudy should stay as their starting small forward (like much worse versions of Jordan and Pippen). Blake and Sergio will have to work on their spot up three pointers and driving without the ball to be more effective playing like that.

  • jrp14

    Jukai: I never said he played point in the eurgoleague, I assume his team didn’t need him there. The Blazers could use him there, and he distributes the ball well, and is strong enough to bring the ball up on bigger guards. I don’t necessarily think we’ll start him at the point, but I’m saying I wouldn’t be mad if we did. I just don’t see with all the talented guards we have that steve will be around much longer. And with Brandon handling the ball more then often, which is the way he likes it, he doesn’t have to handle the ball all the time, just guard the point guards and run some plays when were running them for Brandon.

  • http://fjsdklf.com Jukai

    You’re under the assumption that Rudy is a good defender. He’s not.

  • http://www.sprint.com/sero Dma

    the reason why the article isn’t “great” is because a lot of what was said sounds like a summary of what could be found on other basketball forums/blogs/media outlets. the article itself is fine, it’s just very general and not specific.

  • http://www.myspace.com/brinaro22 Brina22

    @Jukai–I agree with your comment re: starting Bayless at the point. I’d like to see them stick with Blake. The line up I listed…among many others because of the teams depth…is something we’ll see (or I think we’ll see) during the game. But really…who cares on who starts the game…who do we want in there when the game is on the line? You know Roy will have the ball in his hands, who’s going to be out there with him? I’d go with Roy, Rudy, Travis, LMA, & Oden….or sub Martell or Bayless for Rudy (who is a better defender Bayless or Webster?).

    @Nima–thanks…it’ll be another fun season, hopefully.

  • Dean

    RODRIGUEZ my friend! Has anyone seen the Youtube video where he simply detroys Russia during the Junior Euro Championship?

    This team is going to be incredible
    Rodriguez-Roy-Fernandez/Batum-Alridge-Oden!!!
    This is the best starting five of the next 5 years…

  • http://AllAbout-Penis-Enlargement.com Jukai

    Brina22: Webster thus far, but they’re also VERY different positionally. Bayless can guard a point guard but not a shooting guard, while Webster is more suited for guarding a two or a three.
    Dean: I am ALL for developing Rodriguez. During his rookie year, he looked remarkable, but took a small step back during his Sophmore slope. Preseason wise, Sergio has looked fantastic. Problem is, he may be TOO good… jrp14 is sorta on the right track, I think, with Portland. They need a point guard who doesn’t need the ball in his hands and doesn’t need to distribute, like a Ron Harper. Sergio, I think, will be a great distributor in a year or two. I’d use him as trade bait.

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