Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008 at 8:33 am  |  59 responses

Fantasy Basketball, Week 5

Coping with Lil’ Dun and the Elite Team Effect.

by Emry DowningHall

After dropping a fantasy column on Wednesday of last week, I’m back on short rest with this week’s column.

If you’ve followed my column over the years, you’ll know that I like to share links to websites and tools that I utilize week to week. There’s no hidden motivation in these plugs, just looking to share some sites I think SLAM readers should be aware of.

This brings me to Basketballmonster.com. The site is a fantastic resource for ranking and evaluating performance and trade opportunities. What separates the rankings on this site from the standard rankings in Yahoo or ESPN leagues are that you’re able to customize them for your league’s setup.

For example, I’m in a league where we count offensive rebounds as a category. This dramatically alters a player’s value, and accounting for that when analyzing a deal is crucial. Though I What great production...occasionally find errors in the stats, overall they do a fantastic job and it’s certainly worth checking out when evaluating a move.

Outside of injuries, is there anything worse than owning a star player on a dominant team? Anyone who owns starters on either the Lakers or the Celtics knows exactly what I’m talking about. The spoils of easy victories aren’t felt throughout fantasy circles. In fact, blowouts in general are just about the worst thing that can happen to starters’ stat lines. Unfortunately, there’s no remedy for this situation. If you’re truly fed up and looking to deal one of your affected studs, wait for a few husky stat lines and make your move when you’re able to sell high. I don’t know of any leagues that credit the number of fourth quarters sat as a positive statistic; Kobe Bryant owners stand up.

The Mike Dunleavy Jr. saga is growing old, fast. The updates out of Indiana have been scarce, and what was once reported as a minor injury now appears to be anything but. The truly frustrating element to all of this is that the lack of information doesn’t allow owners to make a clean break from Dun Jr. There’s nothing worse than cutting ties with a potential fantasy beast, only to hear he’s expected back on the court within the week. It seems the only thing owners can hope for is a clear report on his status and, hopefully, good news on the return.

Before Stephon Marbury met with Donnie Walsh this afternoon, this is what I wrote about the meeting:

Whether it ends in a buyout, dismissal, or no action is taken, the Stephon Marbury saga should be resolved on Monday. The word on the curb all year has been that Steph is in the best shape of his career. If the two sides are able to reach a buyout agreement, his questionable mental state aside, someone’s going to give Stephon a chance with their club.

Career averages of 19 points and 8 assists were all the motivation I needed to add him in whatever leagues I could. Any owners with a flexible roster spot in a 12 team should give heavy consideration to making the move. If it doesn’t work out, you can always drop him and move on. The risk-reward factor makes it a very intriguing play.

We now know that the two sides weren’t able to agree on a deal, and Steph has been sent home to collect his millions on his on time. It’s not bad work if you can get it, but it does come with a label of league pariah attached to it. I have already dropped Marbury, replacing him with Ryan Gomes in a 12-team league.

After releasing last week’s column on Wednesday, I don’t have too many waiver gems this week. Still, there are some players making the most of injuries and playing time We love, um, well...no.who deserve consideration:

Luther Head and Aaron Brooks — Tracy McGrady’s knee is giving him serious problems (shocker) and there’s talk he might shut it down for an extended period of time. If this occurs, there will be plenty of minutes available for Head and Brooks. Head’s size allows him to better plug in for McGrady, but certainly both guys would benefit. Keep an eye on TMac’s status and pounce if he’s going to miss time.

Chris Wilcox — Wilcox is healthy and starting at the five-spot for the Thunder. His natural position is power forward, and he’s extremely injury prone, but he should be a solid source of points and rebounds for owners in need of frontline support.

Francisco Garcia — He’s back on the court for Sac-Town after missing the start of the season with a calf injury. He played well last season when Ron Artest was out of the lineup, and when he gets his legs back he’ll be solid this year as well. It will take him some time to adjust so you’ll need to be patient when adding him.

Russell Westbrook — It appears Westbrook has won the starting point guard job in OKC, and he should now be owned in all leagues. As a rookie, he will be up and down this season, but he can really fill the stat sheet and should see plenty of tick for the youngins in Oklahoma City.

The New York Knicks — Outside of Anthony Robertson, everyone on this roster is getting picked up. The Knicks have been dressing seven players in the wake of the Cuttino Mobley physical, and Nate Robinson’s groin injury. The intramural-size roster is providing plenty of opportunity for guys like Chris Duhon, Tim Thomas, and Wilson Chandler to put up big numbers. Duhon and Chandler should be owned in all leagues, and Thomas will be solid as well.

Anthony Johnson — As long as Jameer Nelson is injured, Johnson is worth owning. The man they call “Dad” can get it done and it an excellent add/drop replacement at Instant R.G.the point guard slot.

Ryan Gomes — Gomes has been playing well lately, hitting double figures in six of his last eight games. Corey Brewer is now done for the season which will mean more tick for Gomes and increased production. He’s a fairly balanced player who can help owners in a number of categories.

C.J. Miles — He’s been an excellent fill-in for the injury depleted Jazz. His recent value may plummet when the team returns to full strength, but right now he’s scoring, knocking down the occasional three, rebounding and diming at a strong clip. He deserves a strong look in 12+ team leagues.

As always, thanks for reading. Leave your questions in the comments and I will get back to you ASAP. If you have a question regarding an add/drop or a trade, try to let me know how many teams are in your league in your post. A lot of potential developments this week–stay close to the wire!

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  • German Reignman Posted: Dec.2 at 8:54 am
    “If you’ve followed my column over the years” …. Emry, isn`t this only the second season youre doing this ? “over the years” sounds more like a Jerry Sloan timeframe … just sayin

  • davidR Posted: Dec.2 at 9:09 am
    get well soon lil dun

  • Gerard Himself Posted: Dec.2 at 9:12 am
    I actually drafted Anthony Johnson in the final round of my draft (round 15), knowing he was the only back-up pg for the Magic. Now being a temporary starter, he actually still manages to put up decent numbers. Reminds me of that article Lang wrote about him last year…. by the way, Dwight calls him “No-Neck” Johnson! :D

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.2 at 9:51 am
    German Reignman: That made me laugh out loud, good point. Though it has technically been since February of 2007 so this is actually my 2.5 season.

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.2 at 10:30 am
    Gerard: How deep is your league? 15 rounds is a late draft. Upon retirement Anthony Johnson will likely terrorize YMCA’s across the country with his pity pat dribble

  • Gerard Himself Posted: Dec.2 at 10:36 am
    20 teams! I drafted Shaq I think in the 12th, everybody slept on him. Morons. Then again, I’m in 4th place after a month, so I should keep my mouth shut.

  • Ryne Nelson Posted: Dec.2 at 11:38 am
    Someone in my 16-team league drafted Stephon in the last round and is holding on to him (presumably until he’s with another team and playing). Emry, do you think this owner is doing the right thing or should he drop Marbury and work the wire?

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.2 at 11:55 am
    Ryne: I already dropped him in a 12 team league 2x this year. I drafted him initially based on his conditioning and his preseason minutes and then dropped him when he was inactive. I then picked him up again when I thought he was going to be bought out, but have since dropped him and it looks like his season is all done.

  • RV Posted: Dec.2 at 11:59 am
    tmac is out for a week….but its only like two games so picking up head may not work out overall

  • TADOne Posted: Dec.2 at 12:36 pm
    Ya’ll may want to drop Plaxico Burress and pick up Domenic Hix…….errr, sorry. Wrong fantasy league.

  • Jukai Posted: Dec.2 at 1:08 pm
    RV: Depends on how many people are in your league and how many add/drops you are allowed in one week. I have two roster spots always open where I constantly add and drop players so I have more guys playing at one time. Aaron Brooks has been good to me.

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.2 at 1:10 pm
    RV: I think Mac will end up missing more than 1 week. If you sit him for 1 week, why not 2? He needs the rest and the team will be ok without him.

  • ciolkstar Posted: Dec.2 at 1:29 pm
    I’ve been going to a PG heavy lineup with Devin Harris, Joe Johnson, Rondo, and Sessions. killed it last week (Cats:7-1-1)Only problem is with Bogut out and Melo tending to a sore elbow I’m depending on David Lee, Al Horford and Shaq for all my big man stats…

  • Chris Posted: Dec.2 at 1:40 pm
    What’s going on with Tyson Chandler??? He’s only averaging 8 & 8. He’s killing me. I had an auction draft and paid good money for him.

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.2 at 1:49 pm
    Chris: No one really knows my man. There’s no reason he should be playing the way that he is. He’s certainly at his lowest value since his Bulls days and it’s super frustrating for owners who used to only worry about blocks with him.

  • Ryne Nelson Posted: Dec.2 at 1:58 pm
    Tyson Chandler is a nice player who really benefited from playing with Chris Paul last season. A lot of people get it confused: David West is for real; Tyson was not.

  • Ryne Nelson Posted: Dec.2 at 1:58 pm
    …plus Tyson’s a major injury liability. He may be on a new team, but his body is still long and frail.

  • Ryne Nelson Posted: Dec.2 at 2:01 pm
    Not to take this over, but how about some props to Dwyane Wade. 37 points and 15 assists last night? Leading the L in scoring? Not having to deal with the ‘Elite Team Effect’? Staying healthy (knock on wood)? Dude’s also going for a Top 3 finish in MVP voting.

  • ciolkstar Posted: Dec.2 at 3:09 pm
    DWade is seriously looking like the 2nd best player (Bron = 1)in the world right now, in fantasy and reality.

  • RV Posted: Dec.2 at 3:14 pm
    tyson ain’t trying. If he had averaged like 18 pts per then i’d say it was the CP3 effect, but he’s all rebounds, blocked shots, and steals, which have all dropped. Those are mostly independent from CP’s influence. I’ve got chandler and Okafor on my team, similar players, similar starts, but Okafor finally broke out within the last week.

  • RV Posted: Dec.2 at 3:15 pm
    Jukai, why are you talking to me like we’re not in the same league?? I didnt mention Brooks because i think he’s a solid pickup even with Tmac healthy. Head may get a lot of minutes, but he’s not always inconsistent when it comes to stats.

  • RV Posted: Dec.2 at 3:17 pm
    emry, the rockets won’t be ok without tmac if they sit him down for more than a week, but i have a feeling some major drama might start up soon for Tmac. There’s a pretty well known reporter down here who recently wrote Tmac is only sitting down because he’s unhappy with his play and not because of pain or injury. Apparently Tmac himself told him that.

  • Jukai Posted: Dec.2 at 3:36 pm
    RV: Your league may be deeper than mine, but in the league I play in, there’s enough solid players on the wire which you can mix and match depending on the week. With T-Mac gone, Brooks is going to get a lot of burn. Sure, he’s not going to be throwing 25-5-5 out anytime soon, but you can grab him for the week then ditch him and find another quality player still on the wire before T-Mac comes back.

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.2 at 3:57 pm
    Ryne: Wade is unreal, based on his selection in drafts he is by far the MVP of fantasy thus far.

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.2 at 3:59 pm
    RV: I agree with you on your point about Chandler’s stats, CP3 shouldn’t have any effect on his boards. He has never been that good with blocks though – That’s interesting about T-Mac, I hope that’s not true. You would think he would be thrilled to be in H-Town with Artest/Yao/Battier they have a solid club… I like Landry/Scola/Brooks/Head … I’m not an Alston guy but u can’t be nice @ every position.

  • Moose Posted: Dec.2 at 5:50 pm
    MY TEAM:
    DWade
    Garnett
    Josh Smith
    David West
    Kevin Martin
    Tayshaun Prince
    Michael Beasley
    OJ Mayo
    Derrick Rose
    TJ Ford
    Emeka Okafor
    Al Jefferson
    Gerald Wallace I was offered Luol Deng for Tayshaun . . . should I take that? And, any other suggestions? Player pool includes Nate Rob, Manu, Dalembert, Bogut, Francisco Garcia, JR Smith, etc . . . really deep. Suggestions, Emry?

  • Waters1981 Posted: Dec.2 at 6:22 pm
    Brandon Rush worth a pickup at the expense of Nick Young?

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.2 at 6:39 pm
    Moose: Your team is stacked man … I would rather own Manu than Tayshaun Prince longterm. He should be back to his old ways in a week or so. I would make that move.

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.2 at 6:39 pm
    And no, I wouldn’t do that deal, I would rather own Manu than Deng or Tay

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.2 at 6:40 pm
    Waters: I like Young over Rush still. Daniels is going to keep getting those minutes for the duration while Dun Jr is out in my opinion.

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.2 at 6:40 pm
    UPDATE: With T-Mac now out 3 weeks, I would pickup Head and have where I could.

  • Moose Posted: Dec.2 at 6:55 pm
    Thanks a lot, Emry. I’ll be a lot better once Martin and JSmoove come back . . . I’ll pick up Manu in, like, a week. Does that sound like a good idea? When do you recommend?

  • Caleb Posted: Dec.2 at 7:17 pm
    What’s wrong with Tyson Chandler? Well… his wife just had a baby and he had an early season injury. Mental distraction is probably a bigger part of it than the injury… atleast that’s the generaly theory. I imagine he’ll get back into rhythm soon and start putting up the 10 and 11 that’s now expected out of him.

  • Caleb Posted: Dec.2 at 7:20 pm
    And I highly doubt that he “isn’t trying.” Chandler strikes me as a guy who always plays hard.

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.2 at 7:58 pm
    Moose: No, I would make that move right away. One big line and he’s gone. It’s a long season, I would rather have Manu for the long haul.

  • Moose Posted: Dec.2 at 8:07 pm
    It’s done, Emry. Thanks again.

  • GOAT Posted: Dec.2 at 8:31 pm
    I dropped Barbosa the other day in an 11-team league and picked up DJ Augustin…..then last night I saw J Rich is back, so I ditched DJ and picked up Mario Chalmers. Whaddya think? Cats are FG%, FT%, pts, rebs, ast, steals, blocks, 3PTM….and I’m hurting in steals and assists.

  • aotearaw Posted: Dec.2 at 9:52 pm
    Just traded Artest for TP, needed FG% and could afford to lose steals. Stoked.

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.2 at 11:03 pm
    GOAT: Chalmers should get it done for you, I still like DJ though, both guys are going to be up and down and it’s anybodies guess who will be better… I know LB is huge on DJ so I woulda stuck with him vs Chris Quinn/Banks in Miami… but we’ll see

  • RV Posted: Dec.2 at 11:43 pm
    Jukai, are you being sarcastic, also in another league, or forgot to take your meds??. WE ARE in the same league…

  • davidR Posted: Dec.3 at 1:46 am
    i wish andre miller would stop taking the most shots on the sixers. kills my teams fg% badly from time to time

  • davidR Posted: Dec.3 at 1:48 am
    i had anthony carter as my backup assist/stealer, but now that chucky atkins is back what do you think the PG situation will look like in denver? im guessing one of the two will be traded?

  • Tarzan Cooper Posted: Dec.3 at 2:12 am
    I HOPE THE TEAMS THAT HAVE BEATEN ME 4-5 ENJOYED IT….THE ATLIEN IS BACK WEDNESDAY….GIVE ME THE TROPHIES NOW!

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.3 at 10:41 am
    DavidR: There has got to be a better PG option on your waiver wire than Anthony Carter.

  • Smackdown Posted: Dec.3 at 11:43 am
    My team is doing well in the Pts, Rebs, Asts, Stls, Blks and 3s but horrible in FG% and FT% My team is
    C Duncan, Bogut
    F R. Wallace, Z. Randolph, S. Jackson, R. Gay
    G K. Bryant, Mo Williams, Rondo, TBD
    Util TBD For the last two spots I can go with A. Bargani, R. Alston, R. Westbrook, M. Barnes, Eric Gordon, JR Smith, Travis Outlaw or Anthony Parker? Which two would you keep? Thanks!

  • Smackdown Posted: Dec.3 at 11:46 am
    Do any of those guys even shoot enough to make a difference to my FG and FT %s? Should I just go with the two best players and punt those categories?

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.3 at 4:30 pm
    Smackdown: Bargnani and Westbrook are the two I would pick up. They will help your FT % but wont do anything for your FG %. Your team looks pretty solid, I would pick those guys and just punt on FG % and hope to squeek out FT @ some point.

  • Tarzan Cooper Posted: Dec.3 at 4:54 pm
    EMRY, i have eric gordon. someone just dropped dj augustin. should i pick him up or run with eric gordon????

  • Tarzan Cooper Posted: Dec.3 at 4:57 pm
    heres my team with gordon:
    deron williams,
    brandon roy,
    rudy fernandez,
    josh smith!,
    marvin williams,
    antawn jamison,
    al horford,
    nene,
    bogut,
    ghostface przybilla,
    john salmons,
    rondo,
    eric gordon

  • Tarzan Cooper Posted: Dec.3 at 4:59 pm
    emry, whats wrong with dalembert? hes not getting the minutes now. wtf?

  • RV Posted: Dec.3 at 5:58 pm
    Tarzan, Elton Brand is what’s wrong with Dalembert.

  • davidR Posted: Dec.3 at 7:15 pm
    emry, unfortunately the best pg available is earl watson. 14 team league, so FA/waiver pickups are really hard to come by

  • Tarzan Cooper Posted: Dec.3 at 7:39 pm
    rv, its more than that. i think the core of the problem is iggy and thad are almost the same person, thad might even be better, they need an actual SHOOTING 2, thats not iggy.

  • RV Posted: Dec.3 at 10:59 pm
    what does that have to do with Dalembert? Brand is taking away boards, blocks, and positioning from Dalembert. That’s why his output is lower than normal. the other forward has alwayus played 20-23 mins or so, last year and this year. The difference is Brand can also play center, so he’s taking minutes at two positions, while Dalembert is only at center.

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.4 at 11:11 am
    Tarzan: I would stick with Gordon for now since you look good @ the point slot with Williams/Roy

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.4 at 11:13 am
    Tarzan: Not sure about Dalembert… I think Brand is a factor but I also feel like Sammy and the Sixers in general aren’t getting the easy baskets they did in transition last year and that’s leading to a lack of production from AI II and Sammy. Also the emergence of Thadd Young has hurt him as well. I think he will get it turned around and he should NEVER be dropped.

  • Emry DowningHall Posted: Dec.4 at 11:14 am
    DavidR: Eeks, run with AC then.

  • Tarzan Cooper Posted: Dec.4 at 2:08 pm
    o, i wasnt going to drop him, i just expected more, like 11, 11, and 2blks. whats up with scola? it appears he is sharing time with carl landry, that is no bueno

  • Tarzan Cooper Posted: Dec.4 at 2:09 pm
    and on my team listed above, i dropped pyrzbilla for chris WEEZY wilcox. it appears he will get starters minutes the rest of the season. he will also embarrass a few people along the way

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