MVP Race: Quarter Report
A look at the Top 10 candidates thus far.
Hey all, I’ll be taking over the MVP rankings here at SLAM. My credentials are as follows: I love making lists, love talking about players, and think more about the MVP than any human who considers himself sane rightly should.
Real quickly, here are my three main criteria for the MVP, all weighted more or less equally: 1) Size of role on team, 2) Efficiency in performing said role, and 3) Success of team. And know that I use my criteria rather than going off past MVP awards and trying to adapt to the “established” criteria of those who vote for the MVP. I haven’t agreed with an MVP pick in the last four years. So without further ado, let’s get to the candidates:
1. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Pros: If the vote was held today, he’d be the near-unanimous pick. Only his lack of minutes due to how many fourth-quarter blowouts the Cavaliers have accumulated are preventing him from attaining numbers the likes of which are rarely seen: last year he posted a historic 30/8/8, and this year his points per 40 minutes are up nearly a full point, and his assists and rebounds per 40 remain the same.
On top of that, more time spent in the paint and in transition, as well as a dramatically improved free throw stroke, have bumped his scoring efficiency to 60 percent true shooting, which would be his career best by a full 3 percent. And his turnover ratio would be the best of his career. And his defense is all-NBA quality: The best player on the NBA’s second-best defensive team, he’s become a feared shot-blocker (especially in transition), he’s averaging more steals than ever, and his opponent PER is 10.7 despite taking on the other team’s best scorer more often because of Delonte West’s position as the starting shooting guard.
And did I mention he’d comfortably have the single-season PER record in hand if the season ended today, a record currently held by Wilt Chamberlain? Oh, and his team is 22-4 and leads the League in margin of victory. Simply put, this is what dominance looks like.
Cons: Alas, the curse of being perhaps the most talented player ever means there will always be holes that can be fixed. When LeBron sets his feet and gets a good look at the basket, he’s a good shooter (see: International Play), but on the Cavaliers he tends to settle for off-balance looks from 20+ feet and still doesn’t have many shots in the 8-15 foot range that work for him: as a result, his eFG% on jump shots is an average 40 percent-other than Dwight Howard, that’s lower than anyone on this list, including Duncan, by a fair margin. When the lightbulb goes off on the perimeter, you could well be looking at the greatest player of all time.
2. Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
Pros: Offensively, Chris Paul is playing the point guard position just about as well as it can be played. By my gorilla math formula for points created, which is (PPG+APG*2), Paul is creating 44 points a game, which is straight freakish: that would match Kobe’s points created in his historic 2005-06 season.
And then there’s the efficiency. Scoring 20 points a game, he’s 12th in the entire league in true shooting with a 62.9 percent mark, thanks to his ability to finish inside or set up a sweet little short jumper. And he’s sixth in the League in assist/turnover ratio. And for the love of God, the little man only trails Jason Kidd in rebound rate among point guards despite being one of the league’s smallest guards. And he leads the league in steals, and the fact the Hornets are 11 points per 100 possessions better defensively with him on the floor would suggest that’s not just a reflection of him taking stupid gambles. Statistically speaking, I’m hard-pressed to tell you how any point guard could be playing better than Chris Paul.
Cons: But somehow he’s not your MVP. More than anything, that’s because the Hornets are “only” 4th in the West with a 16-7 record. The feeling here is that it’s the Cavs, Lakers, Celtics and everyone else at this point, and if a player from one of those three teams is putting up an individual line that’s MVP-worthy, he should get the nod.
With LeBron putting up career-best lines and on pace to break Wilt Chamberlain’s PER record on one of those teams, it’s hard to advocate Paul over LBJ. I could say that the issue is that assists, which require a teammate to make a play to finish, are less tricky to get than points, which you do all yourself, or that Paul’s defense doesn’t make nearly the same impact on the game as LeBron’s (in fact, advanced stats continue to show him as a liability at that end, which isn’t definitive but isn’t encouraging), but really it’s only his team’s lack of a stellar record and their slight underperforming of their lofty expectations that’s kept Paul’s near-perfect play out of the limelight so far. I mean seriously, look at this box score. He’s been doing it all year.
3. Dwayne Wade, Miami Heat
Pros: League’s leading scorer, and doing it efficiently. Ninth in the League in assists. 2.2 steals and a block and a half per game. Right now, the League’s biggest threat to drop 40 on a given night. And the team may be 14-12, but this was the League’s worst team last season. Getting to the hole at will and has developed an absolutely deadly elbow pull-up from the left side of the 
Chauncey Billups, but here’s why I put Duncan first: Who’s carried a bigger load for his team? (Duncan.) Who’s bringing more leadership”? (Duncan.) Who’s giving you more on the defensive end? (Duncan.) Right now, would you take the now-healthy Spurs or the still-on-honeymoon Nuggets in a playoff series? (Spurs.)
Cons: He was there when the Spurs were looking like a doormat, which is tough to excuse from an MVP. Other than that, he’s Tim Duncan. It doesn’t get much more solid than that.
8. Chauncey Billups, Denver Nuggets
Pros: The unquestioned leader of the League’s surprise success stories, going from what looked like a fringe playoff team to 2nd in the West, he’s completely galvanized that team on both ends of the floor. Thirty-three points created every night is nothing to sneeze at. And the efficiency is as good as we’ve come to expect from Billups: 60.5 percent True Shooting and he only trails Chris Quinn, Boobie Gibson, Derek Fisher, and Bobby Jackson in turnover ratio among point guards, and those who trail him are really spot-up shooters.
Cons: Doing as good as can reasonably be expected, but he doesn’t have the raw ability to take over a game on a nightly basis like the guys ahead of him do. That’s really not a diss—Chauncey has played as well as can be expected of a point guard, he’s just not the guy to go deus ex machina on you and pop a 30 and 7.
9. Brandon Roy, Portland Trailblazers.
Pros: When the first draft of this was sent in, I had him, in my own words, “sneaking into” the 10 spot and “keeping it warm” for Joe Johnson, Amare, DWill, Dirk or Yao. Then on national TV, B-Roy kicked it up ANOTHER NOTCH! (Note: I was looking for a clip of Emeril saying this, but couldn’t find it and got that instead. It is so bizarre I feel I must share it with you, as this is the true purpose of the internet.) He’s the clear-cut alpha dog on a playoff team nobody wants any part of, which is always good for a spot on my list.
Cons: You know, you get a week-long grace period for a clutch 50-point game on national TV. Mostly, I’m just afraid he’s going to make me look stupid again, even if only Ryne saw the original draft. I’m sure he silently judges me now.
10. Devin Harris, New Jersey Nets
Pros: In terms of points and efficiency, one of the NBA’s best scorers: He’s putting up 24 on 60.8 percent True Shooting. He’s another one of these hyper-quick guys who’s compensated for his lack of a great natural shooting stroke by never settling for deep jumpers and getting a nice little pull-up jumper from midrange that really uses his quickness to set it up instead of trying to prove to everybody how good of a distance shooter he is. And he’s running a team that many thought had given up on the next two years nicely, propelling them to a 12-11 record, which is better than DWade’s team. His defense is a strength.
Cons: Team’s not good enough; he’s not quite dominant enough. This field is ridiculously deep when someone 5th in the League in PER isn’t going to sniff the trophy as one of the League’s best two-way players.
Well, that’s it for this installment. The e-mail is johnkrolik@gmail.com. I’m sure you’ll all want to tell me how great of a job I did and how vehemently you agree with me.
This story is filed under: NBA, Truth in a Bullet Fedora
1. Lebron
2. DWade
3. CP3
4. Dwight
5. B-Roy
6. Joe Johnson
7. P-Double
8. Chris Bosh
9. Kobe
10.John Salmons/Al Harrington/Danny Granger
Yes I said Salmons, no im not a kings fan. ATL is my team
wade
howard
kobe
arenas(lol jus had too)
granger
joe johnson
ray allen
cp3
Tarzan, please understand, I’m not saying I definitely value the opinion of a guy who gets paid to watch NBA game tape hundreds of hours a month more than I value yours, but — actually, wait, that is what I’m saying. My bad.
Tarzan -5.
Lebron is the best in the league hands down. I like CP3, but honestly, he’s really not on Lebron’s level.
shaq
posey
zo
then what??????? white chocolate, tippy toes walker.
battier and artest play on the same team and neither of them are averaging a block or leading the defense, -chandler, batum and ariza were jokes right? You just keep sayin dumb ish it is entertaining now
when you have the most dominant center(duncan) in the last 50 years on your team
there is no perimeter player in league history that can keep LeBron out of the key
he was in year 6 when he joined the lakers, had one belt and didnt earn another one until Magic came. I know what i am talking about
Kareem won a title his rookie year and didn’t win another until Magic was a rookie
there is not a perimeter played ever that can keep lebron out of the key and there never will be
and duncan was a pf not a center
Who is better on defense, Wade or Lebron? YOu can’t sh(it on Lebron’s defense and give Wade and his ole defense a pass.
james: 2.0 steals, 1.1 blocks
by the numbers its dwade. wade is in the situation kobe and lebron have been in before where they have to really carry the teams offense, so dwade is playing great on ball d, but all other d is there from wade.
Not by the numbers, I just mean your honest opinion.
Lebron is a better overall player, and is playing defense well enough to 100% earn a birth at all NBA defensive second team, maybe good enough to get all-NBA first team.
Jukai
I compared Wade to Lebron because Tarzan said Wade was better, and I assumed he was using Wade’s defense as proof of that.
Also, considering the Wizards are the -worst- defensive team in the NBA, it’s pretty hard to make a case for Caron Butler. Artest probably is, but if he’s constantly injured or not playing the minutes, his impact he has on defense will suffer and he wont make the first team.
I think it’s more probable Lebron makes second team. With the way he’s playing, he pretty much has to.
Tarzan: Better scorer, better rebounder, better court-vision (Wade can pass the ball better but doesn’t really see the floor as well as Lebron), better leader, more efficient when he scores. That’s a lot. Wade is a better defensive player, probably can get the ball to players better. That’s really it for Wade. If you watched any games, you’d know.
Big Man: Not… REALLY… you know? It’s like, if you KNOW Marcus Camby is a better defensive player than Dwight Howard, but Camby only played 48 games and Howard played all 82, then hasn’t Howard done MORE defensively than Camby? Likewise, if Howard plays 40 minutes a game and Camby only 25, hasn’t Howard done mroe for defense than Camby?
You see the points I’m making? Playing time, as well as the the impact you have on the game, holds a lot of impact. YEAH Artest is a better defensive player, obviously, but if he doesn’t actually play, he doesn’t get to use that defensive presence.
Lebron’s physical attributes should ALWAYS be taken into consideration. Why ignore them? Are Archibald and Jabbar equal rebounders because Jabbar is bigger?
Yes, Lebron is a worse passer but has better court vision. It figures you really don’t understand this. See, Wade is a better passer, when Wade SEES a person who is open, he can stop his play easier, contort is body better, and get them the ball much easier. That’s not to say Wade SEES the plays as well as Lebron. Lebron passes in all areas of his game, from creating passing lanes by dribbling in the paint, drawing and kicking out, pick and rolls with his bigs, and finding players at the rim. Wade really only FINDS players when he sees them as he’s scoring, sort of like Kobe. Once again, this is a pretty simple basketball comment, if you don’t get it, I can’t really help you.
Wade is not a better shooter. The stats (the only evidence you have ever used) prove this, as well as the game.
Hi Ryan Jones!
maybe you should watch a game every now and again.
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