Thursday, January 8th, 2009 at 10:32 am  |  60 responses

Fantasy Basketball, Week 10

Injured stars make fantasy gems. And Patience meets Reward.

by Emry DowningHall

With all the hype surrounding the holidays and the general blitz that coats the New Year, I’m not mad at you if you’ve been slackin’ on your fantasy pimpin’ lately. However, 2009 is the year of your fantasy retaliation, and I recommend forming your resolution strategies around the waiver wire, and dominating your leagues.

Even if a fantasy resolution isn’t at the top of your list, this column will still keep you on point with what you need to know going forward in ’09. Holiday season or not, the NBA doesn’t slow down, and the player news and waiver activity is… wait for it… really heating up.

Being a new year, let’s kick things off with some good news surrounding a few players that have been held on the injured list since the start of the year, yet are still owned in almost all leagues. If, for any reason, they happen to be available in your format, now’s the time to grab them. You can’t afford to have them showcasing for another owner’s squad.

Mike Dunleavy Jr. actually made his season debut last night for the Pacers. ‘Dun Jr. has been clouded in mystery all season with little information being leaked about his knee injury, even in Indiana. At times, it appeared surgery was a serious option, but he’s worked out for over a month on the court and is now back on the floor.

Dunleavy should reward owners who remained patient, but it won’t be an overnight thing. He’s missed a ton of time, and even the best conditioning programs fail to prepare players for NBA game speed. He gained wolf-status in a lot of circles last season, and though he shouldn’t start anywhere near that level, he will certainly help your squad.

Last night he had 14 points, 2 rebounds and 4 dimes in 21 minutes off the bench.

The downside here is the value of Marquis Daniels is going to take a serious hit. If you From Wednesday: Back at practicecurrently own Daniels, it’s been a terrific ride, but I would begin looking for alternative options immediately.

Reports out of Golden State indicate that the man who infamously laid that moped down, is almost ready to be cleared for practice. The announcement certainly came as a surprise to me. I thought the Warriors would hold Monta Ellis out much longer–if he returned at all–given the team’s woes this season. This is obviously great news for Monta owners, but I still recommend caution until we actually see him on the court, and how he responds to Nelly’s “Dr. Moreau” coaching style.

Although it’s not up to par with the Dunleavy and Ellis news, Gilbert Arenas also participated in some two-on-two with his teammates and is said to be rehabbing ahead of schedule. Why does it seem like we’ve been down this road before?

The bottom line is, Gilbert has essentially missed 1.5 seasons with knee injuries, and just signed a $110 million contract with one of the worst teams in the League. They’d be foolish to rush him back on the court and should protect their investment through rest and rehab.

In the history of the NBA, has there been a more injury riddled team than the 2008-09 Los Angeles Clippers? They currently have eight healthy bodies, and while that’s horrendous for the organization and fan base, it offers waiver opportunities for fantasy owners. Eric Gordon, Mardy Collins, and Steve Novak will be forced to play big minutes. Gordon is playing well, and should already be owned in all formats.

Collins is the only healthy point guard on the roster (Go’head Temple Owls!) and has actually played very well in his last two starts. If you want to use him as an add/drop guy, go for it. I started him this week in the DroppingDimes league and he had 17 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals in his first start. That’s very solid production and it should continue until Baron Davis returns from injury.

I’m sure you’ve already heard about Carmelo Anthony’s fractured hand that’s going to put the West Baltimore stud (pause) on the shelf for 3-4 weeks. When an injury like that shows up on the SLAM Wire, fantasy owners need to be asking themselves, Which Denver Nugget is going to be picking up that slack? This way, you can grab him off the waiver wire, early.

Unfortunately, there isn’t going to be one solution to Melo’s absence but J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza are going to be the main beneficiaries, and should be owned in most leagues. In Melo’s first game out with the injury, Kleiza had 21 points, 7 rebounds and 2 dimes. While J.R. Smith chipped in with 21 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals.

Speaking of injuries without a singular beneficiary, Stephen Jackson will miss two weeks with a strained hamstring. As SLAM’s own Holly Mackenzie as my co-signer, there’s no doubt JAX is one of the toughest players in the League. Even still, you’ve got to imagine he has little motivation to struggle through this latest injury based on the Warriors play this season. Nelly, excuse me, Dr. Moreau, could turn to pretty much any player on his active roster as the solution. I don’t have the strength to speculate beyond Keleena Azubuike at this point. Dr. Moreau has taken quite a toll on me over the years.

It’s been a minute since I put down some waiver wire suggestions, let’s take a look at who to consider this week:

Yi Jianlian – Yi has put together back-to-back solid games this week, and although he’s the type of player that always burns owners once they get him in their lineups, I added him in one league and am crossing my fingers going forward. Hey, he’s the No. 3 vote getter for power forwards in the Eastern Conference All-Star voting, so he has to be owned in all formats, right? Budding starOr am I missing something… sarcasm.

Mardy Collins – I already banged out Mardy’s case for ownership earlier in the column. He’s worth an add at least until Baron Davis returns from injury, and perhaps longer if Davis decides to take the season off, since he’s apparently realized he’s now a member of the Clippers.

Eric Gordon – Something’s wrong if he’s currently available in your league, assuming there are more than eight teams.

Anthony Parker – He’s starting again in Toronto and has been putting up solid numbers in his last two games. Last night he dropped 15 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 2 blocks.

Rudy Fernandez – He should post some big numbers while Brandon Roy is down with injury. He’s an excellent addition as a add/drop guy in smaller leagues and worth permanent consideration in 12+ leagues for any owners in need of three balls.

Nenad Krstic – He had a horrendous season last year in New Jersey, but was coming off very strong numbers the season before. OKC will welcome his experience and size in the middle, and because of the scarcity of available centers in most leagues, he’s worth a gamble in all formats.

As always, I’m here for your fantasy questions and comments. Just post them in the comments box, and I will get at you ASAP. Thanks for reading and remember, don’t sleep! In this case, it’s not the cousin of death, but don’t let your rival add that waiver player you coveted!

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  • http://slamonline.com/ Ryne Nelson

    Eric Gordon is really showing what he’s capable of. There’s no question in my mind that he *should* play 30+ minutes for the Clippers for the rest of the season. Without Playoff hopes, the Clippers have no reason to sit their future ace.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    I just picked up Gordon a few games back and now that Melo is out (I also own Melo) I’m considering dropping Gordon for JR Smith (its a 10 team league). But upon closer examination I saw that Gordon is playing 40+ minutes anight while JR is still closer to 30. But, if Gordon has an off game in SA tonight JR will still be tempting.

  • jedi420

    Good list, another guy that is playing very well in place of an injured star is Andrea Bargnani, I picked him up two weeks ago and he is putting up around 20 a night with decent rebounds, blocks, and a few three pointers.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Yo Emry: I feel like I’m carrying some dead weight at PF/C. I have Al Horford, Brook Lopez, and Andrew Bogut (and David Lee, whose C eligible, but gets no blocks so I never play him there) None of these guys is very consistent (aside from D Lee) and I lose in 3s almost every week, should I drop Bogut for JR Smith? Or am I jumping the gun? Bogut’s injuries are definitely starting to worry me.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Yup Jedi: I would love to snag Bargnani right now. I need to improve blocks and 3s and he’s one of the few contributors in both of those categories.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Ryne: That to me is why the Davis signing was such a bad move. How do these GM’s not recognize a players tendencies for sitting out and missing time with injuries? Sure he played 82 games last year… in a CONTRACT year. Now that he’s paid, his tailbone hurts.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @ciolkstar: I would stick with Gordon. Karl has said that there is no one beneficiary of the Melo’ injury and Gordon is going to be playing big minutes for the longterm no matter what in LA LA land.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @jedi420: I already pimped Andrea for his last hot run and although he is a nice add right now, who knows if it will last. Though you’re def. right about that.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @ciolkstar: Bogut has been a bit trashy this year, but I would still rather own him that Brooke Lopez. I would think that makes more sense to drop Lopez for JR Smith @ this point if you need 3′s.

  • http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    I picked up Monta a few weeks ago and have been stashing him away. I’m in third place so I can afford to wait. I’m happy I held onto JR Smith as well. I look for good returns in the next month.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Yeah, I’ve considered that but Lopez is my only consistent shot blocker. Horford is boom or bust and David Lee is a beast on the glass and non existant in blks. I have a ton of big time scorers who contribute in multiple cats(Granger, Joe Johnson, Caron Butler, Melo, Devin Harris) so inconsistent scoring from my Cs isn’t a big deal. Lopez consistently gets 2 swats a game and had 5 last night. I wonder if I’ll ever even get that from Bogut…

  • http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    Um, no.

  • http://www.mirthnadir.com Mirth Nadir

    Who do you think are some under the radar centers to pick up now that could pay off later? I have Kaman, Boguy and Shaq, but none of them are reliable. I think Yi, Bargnani and Kristic are available although I have Durant already and worry about 2 thunder players on one team. Thoughts?

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Mirth: I would def. add Bargnani right away. He’s been solid lately and if (or should I say when) JO goes down he would be a stud, and is already solid. Krstic is worth a shot, just to see how he develops.

  • G-O

    Boozeer has been dropped by someone in my 16 h2h should I pick him up I’m in third place and I’m thinking I just need to wait to the playoffs and beast with him

  • G-O

    Till* the playoffs my bad in class

  • http://www.alllooksame.com Tarzan Cooper

    dalembert’s season is finished.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @G-O: Absolutely. It’s all about that playoff push and the Jazz should be making one of their own with a healthy boozer

  • http://slamonline.com Holly MacKenzie

    Loving the Jax shoutout, Emry.

  • http://hibachi20.blogspot.com Moose

    Andrew Bogut and TJ Ford are my only real waive-able players, and they’re both hurt. Dunleavy, Nate Rob, Monta Ellis, Jeff Green, Boris Diaw, Tayshaun Prince, Eric Gordon, Yi Jianlian and JR Smith are all available, and a lot of them are looking very attractive. I am especially in need of three pointers made, less turnovers and pretty much everything else. Should I make any moves?

  • http://hibachi20.blogspot.com Moose

    Millsap is on the wire as well.

  • http://hibachi20.blogspot.com Moose

    As well as Duhon and Stuckey. Sorry for leaving them out. Eight team league.

  • http://hibachi20.blogspot.com Moose

    AND Bargnani. I’m done.

  • http://fdkl.com Jukai

    I’m holding on to Arenas AND Boozer. And I’m wondering if I’m screwing myself here.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Moose: You have to pick up Millsap right now. He should definitely not be unowned in ANY league. Jeff Green is also a beast.

    Jukai: Get rid of Arenas, unless you’re in first or second in your league. Even still, I wouldn’t be surprised if neither of those guys plays another game this season. How deep is this league? Is there ANY value on the waiver wire?

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Moose: Stuckey is a beast now too. Sheesh. Remind me to never play in a 8 team league.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Moose: Millsap is the best guy out there but if you need 3′s and overall production I would ride with Dunleavy. I would drop TJ Ford. You might want to go ahead and drop Bogut and get Millsap, actually do that, and ride him until at least Boozer is back. Once you have that move done, drop TJ Ford and get Dunleavy or Stuckey. Stuckey might be better for the next week, but I expect Dun to be better longterm.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    Jukai: Boozer is worth holding right now, but you might want to drop Gilbert. Why bring him back? And he’s going to be a slow starter because, why rush it?

  • Kihwan

    I’m in a very active 14 team H2H, so there isn’t much on the waiver wire. I was recently offered Richard Jefferson and Mike Miller for Rudy Gay. I already own Mayo, so Gay is a little bit less valuable to me for that reason plus he’s been kinda up-and-down this year, but I’m not sure how Miller will do coming back from injury. I wanna take a chance and pull the trigger on this deal, but something in the back of my mind says no deal. Any thoughts?

  • http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    Wait, wait. Dunleavy better than Stuckey?! I realize this is fantasy, but come on.

  • http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    Actually, nevermind Emry. I misread what you wrote.

  • http://fdkl.com Jukai

    Emry: because he’s Gilbert Arenas. Dude LIKES to play, he’s not going to want to shut himself down. Until I get actual confirmation of him wanting to stop himself for the season, I may keep him just incase. I’m more worried about Boozer’s worth with Milsap.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Kihwan: RJ has been very down this year and although last nights game was his best of the season, he’s been just as disappointing as Gay thus far. Mike Miller has been rough to, but could be great if moved @ the deadline. How’s your position in the league? If you are doing well right now, I might hold strong and let Gay finish the season strong while Mayo may fade a bit.

  • http://hibachi20.blogspot.com/ RV

    Emry, I dropped Rudy right before Roy went out because he has been in a month long slump, he’s played great with roy out, but Roy comes back on Saturday, so rudy may be a one game pick up…and that’s assuming they have a game tomorrow night, which they may not

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Jukai: The decision is sort of out of his hands @ this point. The team just sunk a 3rd world country into his longterm future and if his knee goes down again, it’s safe to say his career is over. He knows that. Why not hold out, rehab 110%, take the amazing lottery position, and start fresh in 09-10.

  • http://hibachi20.blogspot.com/ RV

    millsap is all-star good for at least another month since Boozer will be out at least that long.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    RV: Rudy hasn’t played THAT well since roy went out. Yes, he’s starting but his FG% has taken a tumble and he’s not contributing much in the way of Rebounds, Assists, and Steals, etc… Check out the weekly forecaster on ESPN.com to see which teams play atleast 2 more games before this week is out. I know the Clippers play tonight, friday and Sunday (a juicy one @ PHO), so check to see if Eric Gordon is still languishing as a FA…

  • http://hibachi20.blogspot.com/ RV

    coilkstar, i was thinking twice about that, i couldn’t remember if he had one good game or a couple, but i wasn’t thinking of picking up rudy again anyway, i was just mentioning Roy will be back soon in response to Emry’s post….i actually picked up gordon over the weekend though, he’s definitely ballin right now..

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Hell yeah. I was SO close to dropping Gordon for JR, but then Gordon went for 30+ again. Living in Austin I’m never sure which Spurs games we’ll get on FSN, but I’m defintely hoping to watch him put some major stats up (in a losing effort, mind you) against my Spurs tonight! I remeber at the begining of the last year’s collge season Gordon was on an ungodly hot streak and looked like the best freshman in the land. He cooled off considerably as the year went on, but I know he’s capable of putting together a string of big games when he gets the opportunity. And for all the “fatty” talk about him had one of the most impressive draft combine scores.

  • Kihwan

    Emry – I’m in the middle of the pack right now. Had a real rough start to the season, but picked it up the last few weeks. I’ve been getting beat consistently on 3PTM & 3PT%, even on the weeks where I’m winning. I’m thinking of holding off on accepting the offer, but not rejecting it to see how Miller comes back.

  • http://www.myspace.com/hemantsbeats what

    I spent a 4th round pick on Kaman in two leagues… god dammit.

  • From out of Nowhere

    I just picked up MDJr – injuries to Brandon Roy and Rip Hamilton made my team pretty weak at SG. James Posey has been a decent replacement (btw, I’m in a 10 team league), but dropping my other replacement SG for MDJr – Eric Gordon – was out of the question.

    I missed out on Millsap when he was available in my league early on, but I was able to get Nene, so I’m not complaining.

    Gordon and Thornton could be the future of the Clippers, but they’re the Clippers, so they’ll probably screw it up and let both players become hot free agent pickups for other teams. Also, I wonder how Mardy compares being a Clipper to being on the Isiah-era Knicks…

  • http://www.another48minutes.blogspot.com Gerard Himself

    @what: what?

  • http://www.hibachi20.blogspot.com Hursty

    Are Ryan Gomes and Randy Foye fools gold?
    I dropped Mike Miller. He was killing me. Luol Deng is still available, but his stats are very misleading right now.
    Is the 2guard from Utah worth keeping? I have a mental blank right now.

  • GOAT

    Emry, to answer your question, yes there has been a team more injury riddled than the Clippers. Any Raptors fan will be able to tell you, we set the league record for injuries (in 03-04 I think?).

    Anyways…..I just traded away Ron Ron for Kaman (cuz Ron was sinking my fg%). Am I crazy? Any update on the Kaveman for me?

  • http://www.hibachi20.blogspot.com Hursty

    Ronnie Brewer sorry. Theres almost nothing on the waiver wire. Although there IS Sam Dalembert!

  • http://www.hibachi20.blogspot.com Hursty

    Goat- try the Rockets roster. Its been awful as a fan. 14 different STARTING line-ups.

  • ti-sizz

    Hey Emry,

    I was just wondering, straight up fantasy value-wise, who would you rather have? Drew Gooden or Eric Gordon. Gordon is hot right now, but do you think he’s got what it takes to continue to improve? Right now, I mostly just need points, steals, and freethrow%.

  • Weapon X

    JRS-One

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Hursty: Foye has gotten it going later in the year throughout his career and I would add him if he was available over both Gomes (who can play but minutes will always be a factor) and Brewer (ok player, no 3 balls tho)

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