Wednesday, January 21st, 2009 at 1:30 pm  |  60 responses

Fantasy Basketball, Week 13

Mr. Fantasy’s got a new crush.

by Emry DowingHall

Running a close fourth among the Benefits of Writing a Fantasy Hoops Column—after the 1) Money, 2) Women and 3) Power—are the invitations to industry fantasy leagues.

These leagues are made up of guys who work within fantasy hoops circles and almost always have an excellent live draft, followed by a very competitive season. The guys from DroppingDimes, and Dr. A from RotoWorld were all gracious enough to invite me into their leagues again this year. Eager for some fresh blood, Dennis from DroppingDimes asked if I knew anyone else from SLAM that might want to get down. It’s a 14-team league with weekly lineup changes.

It just so happened that Ryne had previously asked me to put him on if something opened up, so there it was, SLAM had two representatives in the league.

While I’m always happy to have another member of the team on board, I’m sure you understand the risk I’m running here. As SLAM’s resident fantasy scribe, losing to the online editor would be far from a good look. While I remained confident in my ability, and with full respect to Ryne, the title of Mr. Fantasy would lose a bit of its shine if I took an L at his hands.

Fortunately, my team felt my situation and my boys came through. I’m anchored by my forwards and Kevin Durant, Danny Granger, Kevin Garnett and Jeff Green all had big weeks for me. Waiver pickups Mardy Collins and Andrea Bargnani were also solid and my title defense was affirmed with a 7-2 knockout.

I was going to be slick and compare the excitement surrounding Barack Obama’s inauguration to your favorite team acquiring a stud free agent (in this case, America represents all of our favorite franchise). A lot of the emotions are the same: The freshness, excitement and possibilities. The wind was snatched from my sails, however, when I heard Bill Simmons make the exact same comparison on his podcast this week. He chose to compare it to Philadelphia landing Elton Brand this summer, but depending on where you stand politically, it’s a lot closer to LeBron signing with the Knicks in 2010.

If you’ve been holding your ticket for the Greg Oden coming out party, it was officially punched when he went for 24 points, 15 rebounds and 2 blocks Monday against the Bucks. I don’t own Oden in any league, and although I was fortunate enough not to be facing him, I wouldn’t have been mad if I was. That’s how much I want to see this kid succeed. His rookie season has been extremely up and down so far, but this was clearly his best effort and could be what he needed to break out.

My regular readers know how much I value players with center eligibility. It’s the hardest position to fill in fantasy basketball, and the waiver wire is always dryer than a college student’s mouth the morning after pounding Natty The future in purple.Ice—Yuck. This is why I’m advising all of you in 12+-team leagues who need help at the 5 spot to run out and grab Jason Thompson. As in, stop reading and do it now. He’s quietly having a very strong rookie campaign, and with the Kings looking to trade Brad Miller, now is the time to get him on your roster. Although the Bucks are known to make opposing bigs look like All-Stars, Thompson went off for 22 points and 11 rebounds against them this past Friday. He followed that up with 18 points and 11 rebounds last night. He’s got a hold of the starting job, and he’ll be a solid play the rest of the year.

Admittedly, there’s not much happening on the waiver wire this week. The guys that follow are all worth consideration, but Thompson is the long-term baller in the bunch.

Sasha PavlovicDeltone West will miss up to six weeks with a fractured wrist and Pavlovic is starting in his place. Two seasons ago, Sasha was worth owning in fantasy leagues and should be in line for a major boost in production. He’s scored in double figures in both games since West’s injury.

Mardy Collins – I know I put Collins on this last week, but because he’s my favorite player in the League, I’m going to make an exception. He’s put together two weeks of solid production and potentially has earned a role on the team even when Baron Davis returns. For a player that was discarded as a throw-in for Zach Randolph, he’s been great for the Clip Set.

Jason Thompson – If I showed Thompson anymore love in this column I’d be teetering on a man crush. The case is made for Thompson above and he should be owned in all 10+ leagues right now.

Danilo Gallinari
– There’s no reason to run out and snag Gallinari yet, but keep your eye on his production. The Knicks are going to give him time this season so he can develop and learn the NBA game. That means production. He’s been solid during spot minutes so far. His back is going to be a question mark, but if troubles surface you can cut bait without losing a thing.

Erick Dampier – The trade that sent Diop out of town leaves more minutes for Big Damp down in Dallas. He might provide you with an occasional double-double and that’s good enough for 12+ team leagues.

Thanks for reading. Please leave any questions or comments below, and I will get back to you ASAP.

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  • Nick

    I just hopped off the short, 4 seat, Nick Young bandwagon and picked up Ariza. Thoughts?

  • Ken

    Saw you mentioned over at RotoWorld. Steve didn’t like your “Dr Moreau” nickname for Nellie. How long have you been doing fantasy hoops for?

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Ken: Yea, Doc didn’t wanna put that down but, I know he was feeling the root of the nickname.

    I’ve been doing fantasy hoops for 9 years or so, but writing about it for, yikes, almost 3 at this point… it’s really flown by.

    Dr. A is the man tho, good people.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JulsMW0rQTk nbk

    Emry how much of an advantage do you think I have in this trade—- I am givin up – Nash and KG for Jameer Nelson and Dirk – In a points league where assists, off reb, stl, blk, are all worth 3 points everything else being lower.

  • Nate James

    oden!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    It’s tough to say… Dirk is the best guy in the trade but based off your scoring system you need to factor in Nash’s assists # against Jameer’s as well as KG’s O-boards/Blocks vs. Dirks. It seems like an even deal though, based on need.

  • jackyl

    What do you think of entering/writing about a points based league? Just like football, its so much better than Roto. Our League is 1 point = 1 point, 1 rebound = 1.5, 1 assist = 2 points, 1 Block and 1 Steal = 2.5, and turnover = -1 (and for fun ejections count as +5). I could never picture doing fantasy a different way.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JulsMW0rQTk nbk

    why would you make ejections +5 just for fun? That f*cks everything up if your playing with people that know the game….but other than that I agree points leagues show which team is better as opposed to which manager is more devoted to making moves and updates. Roto is good if everyone in the league is serious though, involves a lot more strategy. Oh i forgot to mention Emry TO are -3 as well. Hurts Nash a lot

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Should I drop Al Horford for Andray Blatche? Normally, I’d try to wait it out but I’ve already got Melo and Bogut out with injuries. Also, I’m in 5th place in a league where 6 teams make the playoffs. I’ll likely miss Horford’s consistency but I really need help in Blks and rebounds.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    …or should I go for Jason Thompson instaed of Blatche? He’s also available.

  • Dikembe Mutombo Mpolondo Mukamba Jean-Jacques Wamutombo

    mcdyess?

  • http://slamonline.com Ben Osborne

    Lowry didn’t work out so well last week…let me give Sasha a go.

  • jackyl

    Because it is a daily league, where you play someone every week…so final scored are usually about 1500-1700 range, ejections are very very rare, and really has no bearing on the score, i still have no ejections (10 man league, 18 roster spots, start ten a nite) its just something kinda fun…and its good when u have a good guy get ejected in the first half at least u get 5 points from him lol…i have been doing that scoring system (except for ejections) for 8 years and its great.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JulsMW0rQTk nbk

    dont do it coilk Horford will be back in the next week and his trade value is way way higher then Blatche. But I am in a similar predicament trying to find someone to take Horford because he is just takin up space on my roster not providing much help

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JulsMW0rQTk nbk

    What about Rasheed Wallace or Amare Stoudemire, dudes that get ejected at the end of games if they are frustrated. It just increases a guys value over another guy just because he is a jack@ss IMO

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    NBK: How do you know Horford will be back within a week? He’s been upgraded to “Day to Day” from “out indefinitely” but I haven’t heard anything confirming a timetable for return…

  • jackyl

    true, sheed hasnt even got ejected yet this year though….does anyone know an open gym/free run basketball in NY??

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    I just looked at Thompson’s recent game log and he’s looking like a VERY intriguing pick up. Great FT shooting and decent from the field, but he’s lacking in stls/blks. I expected Horford to blow up this year, but he’s been closer to last season’s 11 and 11 than the 15 and 12 I’d hoped for, though his block has increased… If Thompson keeps starting and playing 30+ minutes I think he’ll average a double double. This could be the “next Paul Millsap” right in front of us.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JulsMW0rQTk nbk

    I heard he almost played monday(?) maybe that was just a rumor but as far as I know he should be back in the next week. (not this week but next obviously) I mean they could wait till after the break but it should not take that long

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JulsMW0rQTk nbk

    Ciolk Thompson might be a great pick up – especially if Brad Miller gets dealt, is Spencer Hawes available by any chance?

  • http://www.hibachi20.blogspot.com BETCATS

    you people should look into Raymond Felton

  • Todd Spehr

    Durant in January: 26-8-3 on 50-45-89 while his team is 4-5… he won’t be, but he deserves All-Star consideration

  • jackyl

    i know you slam guys are running an open gym somehwere in NYC!!

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JulsMW0rQTk nbk

    Emry how bout this trade I pulled off last week I don’t know how much I won the trade because of Randy Foye, who I gave up with Tayshun for Kevin Durant and JR Smith, I was banking on Smiths production with Melo out, then Dahntay got hurt but what you think?

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    As far as I know there is no timetable on Horford. It’s a bone bruise. My guess is he will be back on the court within 2 weeks but with a bone bruise in the knee area, that’s pretty scary.I wouldn’t drop him @ this point but Thompson is a better pickup than Blatche, unless you’re in desperate need of blocked shots.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Hawes is available, but he’s fallen out of favor with Kenny Natt in SacTown. He’s been dealing with a lingering abdominal injury. Also, the threes and blocks that made him so valuable early in the season have all but dried up and he was never postring the type of rebound numbers I’m looking for in a big. In other words, I’m not intersted in Hawes at all. Thompson will be able to thrive, even with Miller there because Thompson is starting at PF and taken Mikki moore’s job.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    BET: Felton has been killing it since DJ got hurt.
    NBK: You robbed whatever moron gave up Durant and JR for Foye and Tayshaun. Let me guess, public league with people you’ve never met and no money on the line, right?

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JulsMW0rQTk nbk

    Thats whats been up with Hawes is an abdominal injury? I picked him up earlier in the year until Miller got back and he was puttin up 12 and 9 w/ 2 blocks and a 3 for a couple weeks. Havent followed him at all since Miller got back but I figure when Miller gets dealt (IMO it is going to happen) Kenny is going to have to put Hawes back in regardless of favorites

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JulsMW0rQTk nbk

    Its not public and there is money but I am far and away the most knowledgable and well studied (basktball wise) person in the L. I figured they would accept the trade based off of preseason rankings and I was right on the money. Thats why i think I got Dirk and Nelson as well.

  • http://hibachi20.blogspot.com/ RV

    Just picked up JT, perfect pick up for me, had to drop Gooden due ot injury and tyrus seems to like to play only defense one game and only offense the other.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    I like the Durant/JR trade a lot more than the one for Dirk and Jameer. Dirk is an elite fantasy option, but I sort of expect ‘Meer to come crashing back to Earth sometime soon. KG’s been decently productive and super efficient but he’s not on Dirks level production wise, though I think Nash ends up more valuable than Jameer. But if you’re solid in assists w/o Nash and Stls/Blks without KG, the deal is fine.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    I streamed Tyrus for one game yesterday hoping for some blocks. Most of his stats were terrible (2-7 FG 1 Rebound 1 Assist 2 TOs) but he did supply 4 blocks(!), which got me tied in blks for the week up to this point.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    As for Hawes… I think when we read “Abdominal Injury” it sounds a little soft, but those are a BITCH to come back from – Or so I read. I’m sure that plays into it. I wouldn’t drop Hawes in 12+ team leagues because I think Miller is going to be dealt. It makes since for Sac Town and a guy who has given a great deal to that franchise.

  • Waters1981

    I currently have Mareese Speights and Bellinelli, are any of them worth holding onto once Brand and Ellis come back?

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Probably not, Waters. Unless its a super deep league. Although, Speights has been really consistent with his blocks and FG% and belliinelli has blown up in a few games. I thought Bellinelli was injured though? Sprained ankle or something. Speights has played well enough to keep getting minutes, I’m just not sure if the minutes will be there to be had.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JulsMW0rQTk nbk

    I got Mayo, Durant, Jameer, Dirk, Mehmet, Rose, Jr, Diaw (picked him up right before he put up numbers for charlotte even though I loathe the dude), Lamarcus Aldridge, Josh Smith, and Al Horford. The last three are the main reason I was ok with getting rid of KG. Emry what do you think I should do with Al Horford though I’m stuck.

  • Balltastics2000

    Hey Emry, just wanted to let everyone know that I followed your advice from a few months back and traded 2 mid-level dudes (Al Horford and Mo Williams) for an elite player in Dirk. Not only do I get the best player in the trade but I’ve now opened up a roster spot to finally get in on the add/drop game (I’m coming 3rd in my league and the top two guys play the waiver every day). After last weeks trade for Durant and now this one for Dirk I should catch those other two guys. Good advice. Cheers.

  • http://nba.com/celtics/ Moose

    Should I trade Garnett for Bosh?

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JulsMW0rQTk nbk

    YESSSSS

  • http://allday-fadeaway.blogspot.com nbk

    Garnett is so team oriented this season his fantasy stats are eating cow dung, and with the raptors falling out of the hunt Bosh will have to double his load to keep them competitive.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Waters: Def. both Speights and Bell. will take hits once Brand returns and now that Jax is back in action – I wouldn’t target either guy outside of a super thin wire on a 12+ team league.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @NBK: I’m advising you hold onto Horford. The portion of the column I wrote about last week regarding holding guys and being patient on the wire is really sticky advice in fantasy. Even dropping a close week with an injured guy is far better than chasing a pipedream on the wire. Esp in your case since the rest of your team is in action.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Balltastics2000: Glad it worked out for you. 2 mids for an elite guy will always be to your advantage if you stay up on the wire. With more time on my hands ideally I would have wire adds for all sections of leagues as in 8,10,12,12+ but I try to bring it all in one section. I actually just traded Brand/Gay for Dirk … if that gives you a sense of how far I’m willing to push that theory and picked up Jason Thompson as the add spot. No trade is ever risk-free but those are my absolute favorites.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Moose: While I wouldn’t call his stats cow dung, I did trade ticket for Biedrins in one league this year and have never thought twice about it. KG offers good fg % and rebounds, but since joining the Celtics and heading into the top 5 of ALL TIME minutes played, the celtics are looking for hardware and not individual stats. It’s important to recognize these trends and move accordingly… Bosh for KG is a steal and NBK raises a great point about the playoff push – I will have more on that next week.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    But in a 10 team H2H league where the category won/lost tally for the entire season (Ex: my current record is 56-50-2) being able to win even a single category one week is valuable and when the FA pool is deep its possible to get really good value in return. But like you said, if the rest of my team was healthy I probably wouldn’t be even considering dropping Horford. Boguts back and Melo’s hand are whats really causing me all this agony. Its just tough losing close cats with 3 injured players sitting on my bench.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Any word out of Milluakee on whether Bogut will play tonight against the Mavs?

  • GOAT

    I’ve got Dwight and Biedrins and am dominating the league in blocks. Considering getting rid of one of them…..Whats your thoughts on Dwight for Bosh? What kind of value do you think I could get for Biedriens (it’s an 8 cat league, which I’m in first….could use help in assists, fg% and steals, if anything).

  • http://sjsu.edu davidR

    one of my teams is doneski. my injuries include: bogut, blake, carmelo, and zach. what the hell are you supposed to do?

  • http://hibachi20.blogspot.com Moose

    Thanks, Emry. I got the trade done.

  • ti-sizz

    hey emry, i’ve been wanting to drop either kirilenko, g-wallace or kenyon martin for someone who contributes more in points and rebounds. in my opinion, all three of these players are quite similar both in what they offer and in the time they’ve already missed this year. i’m currently leading my league in assists, steals and blocks, and i am near last in ft% and points. i am thinking of picking up thompson for whoever i drop, but i am not sure about it, since he’s still a rook. i already got a rook in eric gordon, and i’m scared to have two players who might potentially hit rookie walls. so do you think i should pick up thompson? if so, for who must i drop to get him? thanks for your help

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