Wednesday, February 4th, 2009 at 1:54 pm  |  42 responses

Fantasy Basketball, Week 15

Stop complaining and drop them already!

by Emry DowingHall

After five consecutive double-doubles and a 42-point, 15 rebound performance, Andrew Bynum owners were flexing a sell high chip performing too well to sell.

After Kobe Bryant collided with Bynum, loosing his balance on a baseline dribble drive, Bynum’s regular season appears to have ended prematurely for the second year in a row. He’s been diagnosed with a torn ligament in his right knee—the opposite knee that he injured last season—and is slated to miss eight to 12 weeks.

What a difference a week makes. The decision facing Bynum owners is to cut or not to cut. I’m recommending dropping the ax immediately. Though it’s possible his body will respond well to the rehab, and he returns closer to eight weeks than 12, there’s little motivation for this scenario to play out. Even if Bynum was healthy enough to resume playing, why wouldn’t Lakers brass hold him out for the regular season and potentially the first round of the Playoffs? The Lakers have already submitted their ring sizes, and aren’t going to accept anything less than a return to the NBA Finals.

Bynum’s absence opens the door for Lamar Odom to regain his starting job. If for any reason Odom has been dropped in your league, he needs to be added immediately. His numbers should increase across the board as he will be leaned on for more scoring and rebounding. Trevor Ariza will also see a boost in production, and is a great category stuffer across 12-team leagues.

To cut or not?For the record, I didn’t feel like the bow Bynum dropped on Gerald Wallace was malicious, so I’m just chalking this up to horrible luck, and not bad karma. Get well soon big fella!

Despite, or perhaps as a result of Jameer Nelson torturing my Temple Owls during his run at St. Joseph’s University, I was happy to see him selected as an All-Star reserve this season. He’s a tough ballplayer and one of the most improved guys in the League. After narrowly escaping a beating from his entourage one night in Philadelphia—apparently they don’t read the column—I was able to express this sentiment to Nelson who was warmly receptive of the praise.

After colliding with Erick Dampier on Monday night and injuring his shoulder, an MRI revealed that Nelson suffered a torn labrum in the hit. Season-ending surgery is a possibility, and the Magic will weigh their options in the next couple of days. I expect Nelson to attempt to rehab without surgery, but it’s impossible to predict how effective he’ll be with a torn labrum.

The Magic lean heavily on Nelson to run the show, and will turn to Anthony Johnson for the time being. Owners in need of a point guard in 12+-team leagues should scoop up Johnson immediately with tempered expectations.

Stop and Stare

Perhaps as an apology to Lakers fans for merking their young center, or in an effort to stamp his name in MSG folklore, Kobe Bryant exploded for 61 points on Monday night. Do you realize Kobe passed MJ for the number of career Stare, Wils, stop.60+-point performances with that effort? Though Kobe didn’t offer much else from a fantasy perspective, save 20-20 from the charity stripe, setting an all-time Garden record for points scored is certainly stop and stare worthy.

One harsh reality of fantasy hoops is that team schedules aren’t created equal. Sure, each team plays 82 games, but how they reach that number varies a great deal. While I never recommend drafting a player based off week by week scheduling—fantasy sports are finally starting to emerge from their nerd stigmas, let’s not push our luck—it’s important to know the playoff schedule of your core guys ahead of time.

I’m going to break this down much deeper as we get closer to the playoff push, but let’s take a quick look at who has the best and worst schedules for the playoff post-season.

The Lakers, Kings and Grizzlies are the elite, while the Bucks, Celtics, Rockets and Jazz are pretty much a nightmare. This means guys like Rudy Gay, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Kevin Martin are players you want to think about targeting in trades going forward. It also makes waiver studs like Jason Thompson, Mike Conley, Spencer Hawes and Trevor Ariza that much more valuable.

Savvy owners in weekly leagues should also keep in mind next week is a shortened schedule due to the All-Star game. No team plays more than two games, but Minnesota, New Jersey, Orlando and Utah only suite up once. If you’re holding an add/drop player whose value on your roster is only as good as his last stat-line, make sure he’s not on one of the one game week teams.

I thought about going into detail on the Chris Paul groin injury, but it appears mild and I consider him superhuman and therefore unaffected. I have a far greater concern for AK47’s ankle, and certainly do not place him in the superhuman category. This is 100 percent speculation, but I still get a sense that things aren’t great between AK and Jerry Sloan, and he may not be totally opposed to a slightly longer rehab. That said, I don’t recommend cutting him until more definitive information comes out about the injury.

Even with Bynum, AK and Nelson going down there aren’t any jump out and snatch me waiver guys this week, but here’s a list of potential candidates for add:

Trevor Ariza – He’s going to benefit from Bynum’s injury and Odom’s slide to the power forward spot. He’s not terrific at any category but he’s solid across the board.

JaVale McGee – I had McGee on this list last week but he deserves another mention. He put up two bad games earlier in the week but has been solid in his last two and could be coming on.

Courtney Lee and Anthony Johnson – These will be the beneficiaries of the Jameer Nelson shoulder injury and both deserve a look. Unless I was desperate at the guard spot I wouldn’t add either player right away, and would Tattoos vs. no tats.monitor their minutes and production with Nelson out of the lineup.

Mike Miller – He shouldn’t be available in any leagues and has been playing better as of late. I think he’s a very likely candidate to be traded before the deadline especially since Michael Redd is done for the season.

Darko Milicic – He was actually playing pretty well before breaking his knuckle and is set to return to the Grizzlies. The coaching staff is excited to have him back and he could return to action as early as tonight. He’s always going to be Darko but could provide deep value for teams in need of blocks.

Spencer Hawes – If you believe Brad Miller will be dealt and Hawes was dropped in your league, pick him up right away. He hasn’t been playing well but would be in for a slew of production if Miller skips town.

As always, please leave your questions and comments below and I will get back to you ASAP. Thanks for reading, and I’ll be back next week with some mid-season awards.

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  • http://www.alllooksame.com Tarzan Cooper

    whats up with bogut? is he finished?

  • http://slamonline.com/ Ryne Nelson

    Emry, a few questions: 1) Do you advise holding on to Jameer until we hear about when the surgery will be? 2) G-Force had to be bussed across country. Can he play? What do we do with him? 3) Andrew Bogut could be out for the year. What’s the fantasy impact on that team. Can you get a bag of chips in return for Bogut at this point?

  • http://slamonline.com/ Ryne Nelson

    Not sure if Bogut’s finished, Tarzan, but he’s softer than a marshmallow.

  • http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    Emry: Ryne already asked my question, but would you drop Gerald Wallace? Also, is Al Horford worth holding on to? He has been out for too long.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Tarzan: It’s not looking good. There has been no definitive word yet, but it’s not looking good at all. Don’t drop him yet though.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Ryne: #1 I would def. advise holding Nelson @ this point. Just give it through the week and more information should be out. I expect him to at least give it a try. #2 No, he wont be in action. The reason he is taking the bus is because he wasn’t able to fly by doctors orders. That said, he certainly wont be balling anytime soon. #3 If Bogut is done for the year the results are a two-headed monster of Dan Gadzuric and Francisco Elson – They play as bad as they sound and neither would have fantasy value. The Bucks are beaten down with injuries!

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @TADOne: Wait on Wallace and see what his time table is for return. As for Horford, he looked great in practice and is slated to START this evening.

  • tenorca

    Thanks for reminding me about Odom. Some maroon dropped him and he slots in nicely where Michael Redd’s corpse used to be.

  • http://allday-fadeaway.blogspot.com nbk

    EMRY- I told you how I picked up Jameer 2 weeks ago, now obviously he is hurt, in my league the top FA are Delonte- Marvin Williams- Ak47 – then Beasley and Oden… Do I wait it out and pick up Delonte or should I pick up Kirelinko- I have Kevin Durant who gives me room to manuever my guards because he is a 2,3

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @NBK: Do you need a center? If so, I would ride with Oden. If not, I would pickup Marvin. Need is important in this case.

  • http://allday-fadeaway.blogspot.com nbk

    I don’t really have a “need.” I got horford, aldridge, okur. I have diaw also who i believe i am dropping for Oden but am waying my jameer options

  • http://allday-fadeaway.blogspot.com nbk

    weighing*

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    A bunch of players in my league have taken to dropping oft injured players outright. Gerald Wallace, Kirilenko, Boozer, Jameer, and Tyson Chandler are all on waivers. Can I please drop Bogut now? Maybe pick up one of those cats? I need someone to justify dropping Bogut for me, even though I don’t see him playing more than 15 games for the rest of the season, at most. I’d probably use the spot for streaming players. Also, I already have Brook Lopez and Horford as Cs (as well C eligible David Lee),I could really use a Tyrus Thomas steals and blocks type…thoughts? TT is also available right now, but doesn’t play again until Sat, so I’d go another direction for now to incresae my games played this week.

  • http://allday-fadeaway.blogspot.com nbk

    Ciolk- Booze is supposed to comeback sometime around the all star break jtlyk. And Kirilinko also, their production has been good this season. But I don’t know what the best option would be

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Hawes and Jason Thompson are both available as well, their playoff schedules definitely make them a bit more enticing…

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Coikstar: The news on Bogut is in and it’s not good. 8 weeks minimum. He’s essentially done for the year and yes, you can certainly cut ties. Go hit that wire!

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Word. Thanks Emry. I think I might grab Perk as a 1 game filler to possibly get some blocks, and then get Tyrus or Jason Thompson in action this weekend

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    And I know they’re total opposites as players, but who would you bet on having a big game against LA tommorrow? Big Perk or the enigmatic Eddie House – Blocks and 3s are both of equal need this week…rebounds and steals to a lesser extent…

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Coikstar: I would bet on Perk because he’s a starter and KG has been sick. I would also rather have Thompson longterm over Thomas, because Goodens return might hurt his value. I don’t see House getting a lot of burn in a close game against the Lakers.

  • G-O

    Should I trade josh howard for tj ford which is the better player fantasy player

  • Pingback: SLAM ONLINE |

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Right on Emry. Great analysis. The fact that Bynum is out and Perk will be battling Pau instead also makes him the better bet. I’m with you on Thompson over Tyrus overall, the problem is just that I’ve got a bunch of scorers and rebounders but lack blocks almost every week and steals are usually a crapshoot for me… Tyrus is endlessly frustrating but he’s been getting about 4 Blks+Stls (combined) when he plays over 30 minutes.

  • Waters1981

    Emry, I tend to lose rebounds, steals and blocks by a very small amount (normally around 5 to 15 boards, and 5 to 10 steals and blocks per week). I am thinking about dropping Sasha Pavlovic and maybe picking up Luc Richard Mbah A Moute, Dominic McGuire or Pryzbilla. Do you think that is a worthwhile addition, or do you have an under the radar guy for those categories? Ariza is not available.

  • Waters1981

    Hakim Warrick was just dropped though, is he going to get major stats in Lionel Hollins run it out offense?

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Waters1981: Of the players you named, Joel is the best add for boards and blocks. JaVale McGee is taken in your league? I don’t like Warrick in Hollins system. He wasn’t playing when Darko was out and he’s slated to return tonight leaving the frontline up to Gasol and Darko.

  • http://hibachi20.blogspot.com Moose

    My Team:…….Chris Bosh
    Josh Smith
    Jeff Green
    Hedo Turkoglu
    Emeka Okafor
    Dwyane Wade
    Kevin Martin
    Al Jefferson
    OJ Mayo
    Derrick Rose
    Gerald Wallace
    Jason Richardson
    Monta Ellis…….It’s in an eight team league. I need three pointers, and Monta hasn’t really done his stuff yet (I know it’s early, but he really hasn’t been getting minutes or playing). Nate Robinson gives me the threes along with the Monta production. Should I pick up Nate Rob and drop Monta? Also, the waiver pool is very deep. Thanks for the help…

  • Waters1981

    i thought darko was out for another two weeks. darko is available, mcgee is taken.

  • http://sjsu.edu davidR

    emry, any timetable for delonte’s return? he’s available on the wire and i’m thinking of picking him up

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Moose: It’s tough to say because I would imagine once Monta’s got his wind and legs back, he’s gonna be sick. His ankle injury isn’t serious. That said, Nate has been hot and if you need the production right away he’s the better choice.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Waters: He checked into the game tonight. He’s back.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @DavidR: Delonte should be back in the lineup for next week and will be good to go post all-star game. The cast is off and he’s going to be getting tick shortly.

  • http://www.another48minutes.blogspot.com Gerard Himself

    aw damn man. Being dutch I’ve got to step up for my fellow countrymen. Emry! Although Gadzuric can get a dunk and a rebound every now and then, it must be said that Elson can really play. (remember his time with the Spurs?)

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Gerard Himself: I like Elson’s game. He runs the floor and always brings good energy, as far as a guy I want to add on my fantasy roster though, likely wont advise that path.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @G-O: With Ford and Howard it depends on need. Howard is a 2nd level forward who has been playing fairly well since suffering a couple of injuries (ankle and wrist) earlier this year. Ford is always an injury concern but can play very well at the PG slot when healthy, which is what he is now. I don’t think I would trade Howard for Ford unless I needed a PG tho.

  • http://www.another48minutes.blogspot.com Gerard Himself

    fair enough, I can live with that.

  • Balltastics2000

    Elton Brand out for the rest of the season? Is this true Emry? My frontcourt has been depleted with Crash, Bogut and Brand all out. Dalembert and Hawes are on the wire, who should I pick up? Cheers.

  • GOAT

    Just dropped Bynum and picked up Speights…..it hurt.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Balltastics2000: I live in Philly so on this front I have some great information. It’s 100% true. Surgery next week. It’s over. Very dissapointing, except for Sammy D. owners

  • Balltastics2000

    Bad news for Brand, but I picked up Dalembert before yesterdays game and that 20 board effort was greatly appreciated.

  • Waters1981

    Is Mareese Spreights now worth a pickup again, looks like Reggie Evans got more minutes last night.

  • dookie

    I got offered Al Horford for Kevin Love. Head-to-head league. Whatta you reckon?

  • weezie

    Emry,
    please rate these guys ina roto format from best to worst. Bargnani, Horford, AK-47.
    I picked up Horford when he was injured and now someone in my league dropped Bargnani (idiot) and Ak-47 is available. Considering i’m middle of the pack in steals, points , rebs, and assists, and way behind in blocks, 3′s, fg%, and TO’s would you drop horford for bargnani or AK (i’m thinking bargnani only because i don’t know how the ak situation will work out.

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