Monday, February 2nd, 2009 at 5:20 pm  |  42 responses

Top SG Draft Prospects

Volume 2.

by Jeff Fox

No life jackets needed when wading into the 2009 NBA Draft shooting guard prospect pool—it’s not deep. There is no guarantee that more than three or four of the guys on the list below even will be selected in the first round. But there’s a keeper at the top of the list.

1. James Harden – Arizona State – SO (1)
James Harden, still only 19 years old, is the undisputed king of the shooting guard prospect class. The silky smooth lefty is a front runner for First-Team All-American honors this year and currently seems to be a lock to be one of the first three names out of David Stern’s mouth in June.

2. Gerald Henderson – Duke – JR (6)
Up until the past month or so, Duke’s Gerald Henderson has only shown frustratingly small doses of his talent and potential. He seems to have turned a corner, however, posting 13-straight double-digit scoring games and four games of 20 or more points in January alone. Henderson is NBA athleticism personified.

Terrence Williams3. Demar DeRozan – USC – FR (1)
After a slow start, double-D started to get things cooking, putting up double-figure scoring totals in 14 of his last 16 games. 1-18 from long-range for the season isn’t going to cut it, though. He could use at least another year at SoCal to work on his game.

4. Terrence Williams – Louisville – SR (10)
Rick Pitino’s Mr. Versatility, Terrence Williams, has the Cardinals firing on all cylinders and perched atop the Big East standings. Williams is the textbook stat sheet-stuffer—13 points, 9 boards, 5 assists and 2 steals a game.

5. Wayne Ellington – North Carolina – JR (9)
Not the athlete that Henderson is, and undersized for the NBA (6-4, 200 pounds), Ellington is a borderline first round draft pick currently. He might be best served to come back to Chapel Hill for his senior year and take over the Big Man on Campus position that Tyler Hansbrough will be vacating.

Next in line:
Lee Cummard, BYU; Dionte Christmas, Temple; Robert Vaden, UAB; Marcus Thornton, LSU; Milenko Tepic, Serbia.

Not expected to enter draft:
Willie Warren, Jodie Meeks, Tyreke Evans.

Jeff Fox also writes about college hoops and the NBA draft at College Hoops Net.

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  • http://slamonline.com/ Ryne Nelson

    I actually like these prospects, Jeff. I’m curious if you’d put Meeks in the top-five if he was going to come out this year…I know it’s a hypothetical situation, but sometimes the best players can be the ones who don’t leave early.

  • http://www.ballislife.com Justin Walsh

    Great list, I agree with your criticism of Demar’s outside shot, but seriously doubt he will go to USC a sophomore season, nor do I think it will matter- He’s a lottery guy regardless.

  • chris

    james harden should be the #1 pick in this years draft. Yea, we all know you go BIG. That hasn’t worked out 2 of the past three years. Kevin durant has been better than oden. Brandon roy better than bargnani. It worked last year

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Willie Warren really reminds me of Stuckey. Similar in build and in game. Very nice player. But, I think Terrance williams is my clear favorite on this list, outside of Harden. Henderson is a great college player but has Dahntay Jones written all over him as a pro. Demarr needs to stay in school.

  • http://www.ballislife.com Justin Walsh

    ciolkstar, Willie is similar to Stuckey, but Stuckey is probably a better shooter and Warren definitely a better athlete. I remember playing him once in a gym sophomore year in HS, he was unfairly talented. Team Texas was loaded when it had him, Rotnei Clarke of Arkansas, Darrell Arthur of KU and now the NBA and a few others that are in the BIG12 now

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Yeah, I agree on the Stuck-WW dichotomy. That dunk Warren put down the other day was unreal. Harden doresn’t “WOW” me atheletically, whenever I see him I think, “Michael Redd”
    Also, Dionte Chriistmas is one of my favorite all-time names.

  • http://www.ballislife.com Justin Walsh

    Harden is much more polished than Redd at the same stage in their career overall and doesn’t sling the ball as much in his jumper. Warren has put down some better jams than that, I guarantee it.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Demar probably will come out, partially because big names like him are going to USC on a strictly one and done basis right now. I just don’t think he’s even close to being able to help a lottery team get better. I’m not saying he couldn’t score or do things in the L, I just think he needs to stay and work on his game a little more. Demar clearly has elite NBA level atheleticism though.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Cool, I haven’t seen Harden play much but his numbers are unreal and I’ve been hearing his name for a minute already. Man, why did Willie bolt for OU? Texas needs an appropriately sized 2 guard so bad right now. (Sorry, AJ)

  • http://www.ballislife.com Justin Walsh

    ciolkstar, one thing I would like to point out is that he is never attempting to actually get in rhythm from 3. He shoots at most 2 threes in a game. He doesn’t focus on shooting threes at all at this level because the USC system dictates he be a midrange shooter. Just watch the games. Dwight Lewis is their 3 PT shooter, Hackett is a horrible PG, he only passes to one side of the floor the whole game, rarely finds Demar on the cut, it’s not Demar’s fault that he isn’t averaging 20+ PPG, the USC system is the princeton offense without the lovely pick and roll variance. USC is boring and slow, suprising considering it’s on the west coast. Also, it’s hard to average 20 a game when USC has team seniority the likes of Taj Gibson who’s been their go to scorer for 3 years, D. Hackett who has started since freshman year and Dwight Lewis who takes more shots than anybody on the team. Demar will be able to contribute for a lottery team easy money. USC is a slow, plodding offense. Demar’s skill set is best suited for an offense that is like almost all NBA teams outside of San Antonio, Miami, Detroit and Orlando.

  • http://ittakesanationofmillionstoholdthissac.blogspot.com ciolkstar

    Demar would be able to get minutes and do some things, but I still think he’s too raw to actually help a young team get better. And in the admittedly few games I watched him play, he “disappears” too often. But some of that may have to do with his ill fit at USC, which would also predict that he would go pro ASAP… I just don’t think he’ll get a lot of run right away and his stock could fall (ala Donte Greene)

  • http://www.ballislife.com Justin Walsh

    ciolkstar, watch him more and focus on why he disappears. I promise you that you will find yourself losing respect for Daniel Hackett’s point guard play, no matter how often ESPN glorifies it. Also, Donte Greene’s stock fell in a much deeper draft. This draft is quite possibly the weakest one in the last 10 years. He wont fall.

  • http://www.collegehoops.net Jeff Fox

    Ryne, I’m not sold on Meeks as an NBA player yet. He is a bit undersized for the pros and doesn’t do much other than score. He’ll need to add more to his game and improve his ball-handling for the NBA. On the list above I’d probably have him sixth.

  • Jacob

    I think that harden and derozen are kindof overrated, theyre good just overrated

  • http://www.ballislife.com Justin Walsh

    if you have a reason Jacob, by all means elaborate.

  • Jacob

    I dont know I just think they are overrated Harden doesnt look all that tough to me and I dont know why I said DeRozen take him off that overrated list lol

  • http://www.ballislife.com Justin Walsh

    I can see where you would think he doesn’t look all that tough, possibly that’s because every night he drops 20+ but he does it so QUIETLY from a standpoint that he never takes a bad shot, never forces it on offense, always lets the offensive sets develop, he’s just very comfortable letting the game come to him I s’pose

  • http://slamonline.com Tzvi T

    Ellington and Christmas, if they switched which schools they were at, would be equally rated. I watched and played with both in high school. Ellington is just better schooled in the team game.

  • http://www.ballislife.com Justin Walsh

    Christmas is better than Ellington in my view. Ellington can’t score unless it’s his jumper & when he doesn’t square up, even if it’s just a smidge, it wont go in. Too many games he is on the negative end of a streak. I don’t trust him to be consistent. Christmas on the other hand, is like death and taxes- unavoidable.

  • http://www.ballislife.com Justin Walsh

    Also, I think Henderson being that high is a bit early. He has done almost nothing to be that high his entire career, and has only played this well for about a month and a half. He hasn’t solidified himself in my eyes, even though I am a huge Duke fan.

  • Jacob

    I also think that Terrance Williams should be ranked higher since he is a hometown dude around here and he’s just straight up baller

  • http://www.manutd.com Z

    Im not a fan of dudes like Demar. This is not tracks, its basketball : a game of skills. Now you can get away with an athletic big that protects the paint but a 2-guard with no nba skills?! I mean, guys like like Gerald Green are in and out of the league and he has a pretty decent j. Demar, so far, hasn’t shown anything that ressembles an nba skill. I’m hating BIG TIME.

  • http://www.ballislife.com Justin Walsh

    Z, I get your criticism but totally disagree. for the reasons already stated above. Also, Gerald Green has a WAY lower basketball IQ than Demar, that’s why he can’t be a consistent player.

  • http://hibachi20.blogspot.com BETCATS

    i like Terrance more than anyone else here.

  • http://www.ballislife.com Justin Walsh

    Terrance is SO fun to watch.

  • http://itsadcthing.blogspot.com Squad

    I guess we’re assuming Chase Budinger is more of a small forward? He’s not all that big and I bet most of his minutes (if he gets any) will come at the 2 since he’s not really equipped to check bigger 3′s and doesn’t rebound like he should. I’d put at 3 or 4 among SG’s, so will be interested to see where he ends up in the SF ranks…

  • wilz

    reke and derozen both stayin another year after slam hyped them up. still got talent tho so no hate

  • http://www.slamonline.com Justin Walsh

    …reke is staying, derozan is still a lottery pick wilz. SLAM isn’t wrong on Derozan, he WILL be a one and done lottery pick THIS year. mark my words.

  • Jacob

    yeah I have to agree with you justin, derozen is a lock to enter the draft this year

  • Gaz

    I HATE TERRANCE!!! HE SHOULD BURN IN HELL!!!

  • http://www.slamonline.com Cub Buenning

    Sorry, so late to this party.
    For starters, i am a bit critical of Harden (mostly the team) in my Cub Scouts column which will be out later today. He’s still the nation’s best guard, though.

    While I don’t agree with Henderson being so high, I love that you have included my boy Cummard as a shooting guard, which he will be in the pros. Kyle Korver 2.0.

    I also love what Wilie Warren does. Still a bit clueless about Derozan, as I’ve only seen him a few times.

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  • http://www.slamonline.com Cub Buenning

    Honestly, I love Gerald, but I am afraid Ray Allen could get off four jump shots in the time it takes Hendo to get off just one.

  • Fleezy

    Danny Green.

  • http://www.collegehoops.net Jeff Fox

    A few of you guys mentioned you don’t like Henderson being ranked that high, but you didn’t say who you’d rank ahead of him.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXuolMTzuz0 Nbk

    Cosign Justin – Henderson is a great athlete who is good at taking advantage of his physical ability but that advantage does not translate him to be ranked that high. And shout out to Lee Cummard killed us in summer league in high school.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXuolMTzuz0 Nbk

    Because Henderson will not have that advantage in the L**

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  • John W. Davis

    Is it bad that I really like Manny Harris at Michigan?

  • jarrett

    i kno im pretty late but once again slam (online) plays out the best player out there tyreke evans of memphis…. jeff fox dont hop on the ban wagon come tournament time…. hes a top 10 pick

  • Quail

    Terrence Williams should be 2nd on this list and Wayne Ellington should definitely come back. as should Ty Lawson. but i doubt either of them will. Also, Jodie Meeks will be a top 10 pick NEXT YEAR. Patrick Patterson will also be a 4-year player at UK. which will make him a top 10 pick in 2 years.

  • Dubya

    Danny Greene is better than Ellington. I’d have to say Harden fits well there. Good solid player. I want him in Phoenix and J Rich traded but hey we can only dream. DeRozan screams bust to me. Meeks to and Tyreke Evans. Henderson is a risk to. Terrence looks legit. What would AJ Price fall under? and Prince down in Tennesee? He’d be SF wouldn’t he?

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