Wednesday, March 25th, 2009 at 8:00 am  |  56 responses

Draft Stock Report

The risers and fallers in the ’09 NCAA Tournament.

by Jeff Fox

Like it or not, there are more important things at stake during the NCAA tournament than how your entry in the office pool is doing. Even for the actual participants in the games, there is more at stake than whether or not their team wins or loses (but they won’t admit it). Coaches are auditioning either for a job at a bigger school or a big contract extension from their current employer. And, of course, players are auditioning for the numerous NBA and overseas pro scouts watching the games.

But how much of a factor should a prospect’s play in the tournament have on his draft stock? The Portland Trailblazers’ GM Kevin Pritchard was posed a similar question on NBA TV recently, and he said that Blake Griffinwhile it is important to see a top prospect go up against other top competitors (which is what March Madness offers), their performance in the tournament should only be viewed as another item to add to a player’s extensive scouting report. After all, Sean May, Mateen Cleaves and Jeff Sheppard are among the names to have won the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award over the past decade or so.

So, while taking this all with a grain of salt, here are the players who have boosted, or hurt, their draft stock with their play in this year’s edition of the Madness thus far.

Stock Up

Blake Griffin — Oklahoma
Considering he already was projected as the number one pick in the draft, Blake Griffin technically hasn’t boosted his stock with his play in the tournament. However, his gritty, athletic play has further solidified the opinion that he is head-and-shoulders above all other prospects in this year’s draft. Think Tyler Hansbrough, but with off-the-charts athleticism.

Demar DeRozan — USC
Double-D just got better and better as the season progressed, to the point that if he does enter this year’s draft he’ll be leaving college on a high note. Averaging 18 points and seven boards while shooting 50 percent in the tournament (against two very good teams) does wonders for his stock. However, considering he is a wing player, only knocking down six three-pointers during the season is a bit of a concern.

Cole Aldrich — Kansas
Haters will say that he didn’t do it against any real tough post players, but Cole Aldrich’s play during Kansas’ first two tournament games was still amazing. A double-double his first game and an almost unheard of triple-double in his second is eye-opening stuff. While he is still not expected to enter this year’s draft, look for Coleplay to be a top-10 pick in 2010.

Others worth noting: Terrence Williams, Louisville; Sam Young, Pittsburgh.

Stock Down

James Harden — Arizona State
Heading into the NCAA tournament, the Sun Devils’ James Harden was being given serious consideration as the second-best prospect in this year’s draft. While that may still be the case today, his play in the tournament did nothing to justify this. Despite being the most talented player on the court in both of Arizona State’s Austin Dayetourney games, Harden shot 3-18 combined and almost had as many turnovers than assists. Not exactly the take-charge performance his team—and the scouts—were looking for.

Austin Daye — Gonzaga
While his play hasn’t been poor—he’s shooting 50 percent for the tournament—with his skill level and length, more is expected out of Austin Daye. Just like Harden, he is the most talented guy on the floor more often than not, yet when he isn’t sulking about a foul call that has gone against him he is showing that he is not physically strong enough to finish as many plays as you’d hope from a top prospect.

Jeff Teague — Wake Forest
This has pretty much been a tournament devoid of upsets—other than Cleveland State’s spanking of Wake Forest. Jeff Teague did nothing to help his team’s plight—or his draft stock—in the loss. At 6-2, Teague is going to have to prove he can run the point in the NBA, so his seven turnovers against five assists in the Cleveland State game doesn’t help his cause. And for a shoot-first point guard, shooting 18-43 for the month of March is abysmal.

Jeff Fox also writes about college hoops and the NBA draft at College Hoops Net.

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  • http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    James Harden sh*t the bed in the tourney. I’ve never been sold on Daye. Teague needs more seasoning. Aldrich is just another dominant big man in college who will be too slow for the NBA game. DeRozan hasn’t lived up to his hype, IMO. Blake Griffin…….um, yeah.

  • http://hibachi20.blogspot.com DP

    yeah demar won’t be staying another year after his play in the tourney and conference tourney. Dude is a straight animal.

  • http://sfdjilf.com Jukai

    Considering how AMAZING Rose/Beasley/Gordon/Love/Mayo did last year, the one-and-dones this year have been rather disapointing.

  • DJR

    If I was Jeff Teague I would be calling Slam with a big fat “F*CK YOU!!” Run a piece on Wake Forest just before the tourney starts, mention specifically Teague’s move to the one and how it has helped his game and then rip him when he has a bad outing and the DD’s get b*tch slapped by Cleveland. THE SLAM JINX IS IN FINE FORM!!

  • http://www.slamonline.com Cub Buenning

    Other than the slight frame (more weightroom/cafeteria) the sulking is my only issue with Daye, right now. I have actually liked his play over the past month. Remember he is on a team with several pro prospects and does still need another year. Straight up, though, the kid is almost 7foot. He dwarfed me (at the time I figured by 3″s)this fall in Spokane during our time together. His rebounding is progressing, as well.

    TAD-don’t underestimate Cole’s athleticism. His future is the NBA, believe that. His shooting form is outrageous, but when 7footers shoot 80 percent from the freethrow line you don’t change things.

  • http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    Ok Tarzan….errr, I mean Cub.

  • http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    Cub, you know how I feel about Daye. I’m sorry, but when you have that much natural ability, f*cking play like it! Some players with way more heart (Hansborough) would kill for his skill set. You combine Daye with Tyler and you know what you get? Blake Griffin.

  • Billions

    What about Sherron Collins, Scottie Reynolds, and JaJuan Johnson. They have moved there teams into the right direction. Dis they move their stocks up?

  • Billions

    I meant Did?

  • http://www.slamonline.com Cub Buenning

    TAD-That’s funny that u called me tarzan after his comments on my post last night.

    Also, as someone that didn’t shave until college or truly reach my athletic/speed/body control peak until well into my 20s, I can sympathize with a kid like Daye. (Not so much in his eventual $$$ making department though)

  • Cizzo

    B.G.ready D.D.ready C.A.almost ready every other Underclassmen mentioned stay in school finish developing yall games or go to draft camps and prove thar you are ready!

  • http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    Yeah, I saw the comments. So puberty is what has been holding Daye back?

  • http://slamonline.com/ Ryne Nelson

    I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a big difference in Daye after just another year. Like Cub said, he’s capable of improve his size, focus, etc. Those are small things he can really focus on. He already has the game that could make him great on the next level.

  • http://slamonline.com/ Ryne Nelson

    Cizzo, I don’t think Demar is ready, but he’s shown enough that he should be picked in the Lottery. I still think he should stay another season.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Cub Buenning

    Tad-maybe not puberty per se, but….
    When I was 19/20, my body, not my game, couldn’t handle guarding the likes of Dickey Simpkins. Dude was a grown man and I was a kid.

    Biologically speaking, boys develop at totally different and radom rates-(girls are different)
    For example-walk around a middle school. Half the boys have zits/shady facial hair and have horsey voices; the others all look about 10 years old.

  • http://where-basketball-b-longs.blogspot.com/ B. Long

    Where is Justin Walsh at with his obligatory Derozan comment?

  • http://slamonline.com/ Ryne Nelson

    B, he’ll be around… You’ll know when this post suddenly jumps to 35 comments. ;-)

  • http://www.collegehoops.net Jeff Fox

    @billions – I was going to add Collins to this story also – he definitely is playing well for Kansas.

    As for DeRozan, his lack of an outside jumper is a big problem at the next level – if he can’t even hit the shorter NCAA three-pointer, what’s he going to do in the NBA?

  • B Train

    Davoe Joesph is the Truth!

  • http://slamonline.com/ Justin Walsh

    Jeff, Derozan is going to surprise you with his jumpshot. The issue is that he doesnt SHOOT 3′s in the system. He takes on average a little less than 1 3pointer a game. That’s hardly enough to decide on somebody’s jumpshot. also, I’ve seen way too many of Demar to say he can’t shoot :) And Jeff, he wont play SF in the NBA, USC has a 3 guard system, it’s basically 3 SG’s with one of them parading as a PG.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Cub Buenning

    Jeff. Perimeter shooting is one of the few skills, however, that can be taught and practiced to the point of proficiency.
    Most of DD’s skill set does not fall into that category.

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  • http://www.collegehoopsnet.com Jeff Fox

    That is true about DeRozan Cub. I’d like to see him develop this skill in college though, rather than rotting away in the NBA/NBDL.

  • http://slamonline.com/ Justin Walsh

    he wont rot. I can get into an argument about how much I’ve seen of him play, but you wouldn’t change your mind. I’ll just say this- the USC offense is boring, slow, plodding and sets up ZERO plays for Demar. That’s what’s reallly held him back this year.

  • http://www.alllooksame.com Tarzan Cooper

    looks like my work here is done.

  • http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    I hope that is all it is Justin. I haven’t seen many USC games, but Demar has been underwhelming when I watched him.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Cub Buenning

    TAD- I felt the same way before the season’s last few weeks. He’s been ballin…..

  • http://slamonline.com/ Justin Walsh

    if you watched the PAC10 tournament or his 2 NCAA tourney games, you wouldn’t say that. Also, when he’s played in NBA style systems in AAU, college showcases just before the season started…You’d be just fine with him being a top 5 pick.

  • http://slamonline.com/ Justin Walsh

    USC’s offense is so boring that it borders on bottom of the BIG10 slow. The picks are half assed, the guards are only allowed to shoot midrange, only 1 player on the team is given green light for 3′s and that’s their Dwight Lewis. Daniel Hackett also refuses to pass to the left side of the court, he only plays the right side which KILLS Demar Derozan’s production considering he’s set up on the left side of the offense. Tim Floyd needs to change up his offense considering the talent on the team.

  • http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    I’ll take your word for it. I’m in ACC country, so I barely see any west coast games or teams.

  • http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    Tim Floyd needs to learn coaching….period.

  • http://slamonline.com/ Justin Walsh

    Tim Floyd is an OUSTANDING recruiter, but it ends there as far as I’m concerned. His recruiting classes are loaded

  • http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    No argument there. Rick Barnes is also a great recruiter. Coaching? MEH….

  • http://slamonline.com/ Justin Walsh

    yeah. Recruiting is an art though, so you gotta give credit there

  • http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com/ TADOne

    I suppose. But so is recruiting for a system. Anyone can look good with a couple McDonalds All American’s.

  • http://slamonline.com/ Justin Walsh

    McDonalds All Americans aren’t always the best players in the country. Their selection process always screws some of the better players out of it. They break their own selection criteria then when they block a better player from the team, they cite that the player isn’t eligible based on the rules. Overall, the McDonalds All American team is a great event and produces overall great people, but sometimes they miss the boat.

  • http://basketball-reference.com nbk

    Is tim floyd a great recruiter or is OJ Mayo a great recruiter? He went to USC because he wanted to start a “winning tradition” with a school that did not already have one. And after he signed Derozen committed. I chalk it up to OJ not Mr. Floyd

  • http://www.manutd.com Z

    That’s a very good point with USC’s system and I had noticed that last year with OJ Mayo actually. I was expecting to see OJ running wild out there but the style was so slow. Not even methodical, just slow and sloppy. Tim Floyd seems to be setting a pattern of renting highly touted and explosive wings… so if you’re getting the guy for one year only, wouldn’t you change your system to exploit his skillset? Nothing is ran for DD. No backdoors, no curls. I don’t think he can handle the pick n roll but he could be the screener cutting to the hoop. Anyways, Floyd seems like a much better recruiter than coach.

  • http://www.manutd.com Z

    I give him credit from not shying away fromt eh fact that players are looking for their own interests as well. OJ wanted to be in a big city, make contacts and be the man. He wasn’t interested in fitting in at UNC or Kansas. He went on the record saying that OJ would not gain anything in staying more than 1 year in college BEFORE the start of the season. I mean, he threw a scholarship at Master P’s son to get DD. He’s the ultimate players’ coach at the ncaa level.

  • http://slamonline.com/ Justin Walsh

    Z, with the Master P’s son, that wasn’t for DD’s request. There’s a huge story behind that- hit up my e-mail if you want specifics.

  • http://basketball-reference.com nbk

    easy synopsis – It sold tickets

  • http://slamonline.com/ Justin Walsh

    nbk- way more complicated, but yeah that’s a part of it.

  • http://www.manutd.com Z

    Interested in that story, where can I get your e-mail?

  • http://slamonline.com/ Justin Walsh

    go to the tourney preview, on the region I did a breakdown of my e-mail should be there on the byline (By Justin Walsh)…That thing. Haha hit me up on that email given there.

  • http://nicekicks.com MeloMan13

    Derozen is lookin an awful loy like Young Vince carter…

  • http://slamonline.com/ Justin Walsh

    MeloMan13, I think it’s a fair comparison

  • http://www.nba.com/suns Dacre

    I’m off the opinion that there shouldnt be many if any ‘one-and-done’ guys coming out for the draft this time…It’s all been a little underwhelming I’m afraid….

  • http://www.hibachi20.blogspot.com Hursty

    @ Walsh/MM13- WHAT?!? HOW? In what way (apart from athleticism) does DD resemble Carter?
    Carter had great IQ coming out of UNC, was an excellent passer, but had 0 offensive options on the Raps apart from himself really, he played smooth too. I can see SOME similarities between the two there, getting to the basket, but Carter just seemed way more mature coming into the League.
    His jumpshot from mid-range was money, so was his turn around game, after 2 or 3 years his 3pt stroke was golden too ( so I give DD time there) and he could rebound over bigger bodies.. yeh rebounding. DD doesn’t do enough of that regardless of what the stats say.
    Also, I was wondering whether DD can start his own break off a rebound?
    Also Nick Young went to USC before OJ did… he was a lottery pick. Just sayin’…
    Good stuff Mr. Fox.

  • http://www.hibachi20.blogspot.com Hursty

    Dacre- underwhelming compared to last year’s draft? Yeh.
    Compared to other drafts, it’s less noticeable, but still not on the Durant/Oden draft.

  • http://slamonline.com/ Justin Walsh

    Hursty, DD is lethal from midrange, just ask the PAC10. His IQ is much better than you think. Carter was more mature but he was also in college MUCH LONGER. Carter was in college for 3 years- Demar is a freshman

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