Tuesday, September 8th, 2009 at 2:48 pm  |  21 responses

‘09-10 Fantasy Pre-Preview

True fantasy heads know it’s never too early…

by CharlesEric Gordon Peach

First off, I’m excited and privileged to join the SLAM team for the upcoming season. Former Mr. Fantasy Emry DowningHall got this column off to a superb start so I’ll be working hard to serve you with the best fantasy advice I can offer to continue the legacy.

Yes, it’s early September, but don’t sleep, this is the time to start thinking about how you are going to attack this year’s draft. Have an outline in front of you that includes your target players. Once your draft position is set, know which players are expected to be available. The difference in one pick can change the outcome of your entire season.

For example, those of you who held the third overall pick in your draft last season faced a huge decision. With LeBron and CP3 already taken in most drafts, who was the next guy off the board? Sure Kobe sounded like a great choice and a lock to put up solid scoring figures on a nightly basis. Amar’e and D-Wade, constant question marks because of injuries, had intriguing potential. Well, if you went with Amar’e – I’m sorr’e. His season ended after a 42-point, 11-rebound performance against the Clippers on February 18 in which he suffered a partially detached retina.

If you took Kobe, I bet you wish you had drafted Mr. Wade instead. Flash proved that his play on the Redeem Team was indeed an indication of what you could expect from him in ‘08-09. He went ahead to lead the League in scoring at 30.2 ppg along with monster stats across the board — 7.5 apg, 5 rpg, 2.2 spg and 1.3 bpg! Kobe put up 26.8 ppg, 4.9 apg, 5.2 rpg, 1.5 spg and 0.5 bpg.

By no means is that an easy decision. With risk comes reward. In every round of the draft you’ll find yourself in situations like these, so be prepared. BasketballMonster.com is a great resource which ranks players according to your league’s settings.

Nothing is more important than the draft, that’s why it’s imperative to get in your mock drafts and start your research now. I’m here for you; I want you to win your league. Stay tuned for the season breakdown that will discuss player rankings, sleepers, draft strategies, and players to avoid. In the meantime, here are a few burning questions to debate during the 35 commercial breaks during your NFL team’s opener:

Which sophomores will take the second-year leap?

Last year’s freshmen class got right down to business, playing like savvy vets at times. About a dozen even made a significant fantasy impact. In Kevin Durant’s second season he jumped from 20.3 to 25.3 ppg and 4.4 to 6.5 rpg while shooting 47.6 percent, up from 43 percent. Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, Russell Westbrook, and Eric Gordon could see their numbers inflate similarly. I think it’s safe to anticipate improved stats from sophomores Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, Jason Thompson, Michael Beasley (assuming rehab helps), Mario Chalmers, Marc Gasol, Courtney Lee, DJ Augustin, and Anthony Randolph.

Where is the cut-off for snatching a solid center?

Not only is center an extremely thin position, but look at the number of games played by some of these guysGreg Oden & Andrew Bynum last year:

Amar’e Stoudemire – 53
Al Jefferson – 50
Marcus Camby – 62
Andris Biedrins – 62
Andrew Bynum – 50
Andrew Bogut – 36
Chris Kaman – 31
Tyson Chandler – 45
Greg Oden – 61

So, obviously, it’s very fragile as well. Securing a couple of solid centers is tougher than stopping a drunken Tila Tequila from getting behind the wheel.

Which rookies are ready to make an impact?

Expect Blake Griffin to finish the year with double figures in scoring and maybe even rebounds. James Harden, Stephen Curry and Tyreke Evans will get opportunities to produce. Let’s not forget about Brandon Jennings, who could have a breakout season if given the minutes from Coach Scott Skiles. Keep an eye on Terrence Williams and DeMar DeRozan, (whose nickname should just be “Upper Case,” no?) two versatile players who can fill it up. Wayne Ellington is another guy who could be effective for your squad as a spot up shooter for the T-Wolves.

I’m gettin’ fired up!

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  • http://slamonline.com/ Ryne Nelson

    Center’s one of the toughest positions to draft, I agree. Charles, do you think picking a C with a first or second rounder is worth it, considering how much of a health risk these players can become (well, other than Dwight)?

  • http://slamonline.com/ Ryne Nelson

    Oh, and your thoughts on Ramon Sessions and JR Smith… if you can divulge that before the bona fide preview.

  • Kihwan

    Welcome Charles. I look forward to reading your columns. BTW, what happened to Emry?

  • http://slamonline.com/ Tzvi Twersky

    Glad to have you. Look forward to a great season.

  • http://slamonline.com/ Ryne Nelson

    Kihwan, Emry will still be around, but not quite as frequently. He’s a busy man these days!

  • Pingback: SLAM ONLINE | » Hot Topics

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    You guys are in good hands with Charles. I’m still right here and will certainly be weighing in from time to time. Let me say it here first, if I’m not picking #1 or #2 in my drafts, I’m taking Durant. Aside from LBJ and CP3, he’s my guy for 09-10. Looking forward to keeping up with the column and passing the Mr. Fantasy torch. Good stuff.

  • Dallas J

    Fantsasy!

  • http://hibachi20.blogspot.com Moose

    Welcome here, Charles. We’re glad to have you. So, I want to start off the season early with a question….as the GM of my league (I forsee 8-11 teams), I hold the first overall pick, and I want to know–LeBron James or Chris Paul? Thanks a lot, man…

  • davidR

    moose, i’d say cp3. lebron was good, but if you remember last season he didnt play the 4th quarter most games, so that’s a lot of lost stats. cp3 on the other hand is the focal point of a fringe team in the west, so he’s going to be on the floor a lot more than lebron

  • Charles Peach

    Ryne – Very good question regarding the Centers, and you’re absolutely right, I would certainly be wary of drafting a Center that high. It depends on which player you are considering and who else is available with that pick, but I’ll just say that anyone with extensive injury history isn’t worth a 1st or 2nd rounder. Wait a little while and see if you can get a guy like that to slip to you in a later round.

    Sessions will be a sleeper this year. He’ll finally get his chance to start and we’ve already seen some very impressive performances in his young career; a 20-20 game, 44 points, and a triple-double. I’d feel very comfortable with him as my 2nd point guard.

    As for J.R., he’s so erratic that I can’t bring myself to spend anything more than a late-round pick on him. He can put your team over the top when he’s hot, the same way he can do it for the Nugs, but I still don’t even think Coach Karl is confident giving him major minutes. I’m cheering for him because he’s one of the more exciting players in the league to watch, but he can’t be relied on. Sitting on the bench for the first 7 games won’t help either, as Aaron Afflalo will be auditioning for the starting pole that Dahntay Jones left behind.

  • Charles Peach

    Kihwan, Tzvi, Dallas – Thanks for the support!

  • Charles Peach

    Em – Good to have you. I look forward to hearing from you all season long! I like the Durant forecast, ahead of D-Wade and Kobe, huh? OK.

  • Charles Peach

    Moose – Thanks man, great to be here. You can’t go wrong with those 2 guys. It probably comes down to the specifics of your league – how strongly are steals, assists, turnovers, percentages, and 3ptm valued? I agree with davidR’s reasoning: Chris Paul has a lot to prove and will be hungry to get the Hornets back into contention for the Western Conference. LeBron has a lot more weapons this season and I can see them cruising along to a top seed in the East without LeBron having to put up huge numbers every night. I can see Mike Brown conserving him down the stretch to prepare for a big playoff run.

  • LeoneL

    Charles, would Shaq’s presence in Cleveland somehow solidify CP3′s position as the should-be-first-pick in fantasy?

  • http://www.hibachi20.blogspot.com Hursty

    Is there an unofficial Slam league this year?
    Me, Tad, DP, Teddy, Eboy, Izzo(?), RV all did last year + others, but I forget (oops).
    I’m putting my hand up to play – but NOT to be the Commish.

  • http://nicekicks.com MeloMan15

    I’m baaaaaackkk
    and i lol’d at the nickname for Derozen (upper case)

  • Charles Peach

    LeoneL – I don’t think it’s just Shaq. CLE also added Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, Leon Powe, and Danny Green. Along with Mo, Delonte, Big Z, and Varejao these guys are going to be able to compete without LeBron on the floor all the time. The Hornets will need an MVP performance from CP just to MAKE the playoffs.

  • Michael

    CP3 is the number one all day every day

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    @Charles: I am going to say I would take KD over Amare and Kobe. I’m not sure I would advise that for everyone but I would do it just because Kobe will be looking to rest whenever possible this year for the title run, and Amare is an injury risk. That being said, Amare SHOULD do what he did at the end of the 07-08 season that made him a popular #3 pick in drafts last year and he would be hard to pass up. You guys raise good points about Lebron sitting vs. CP3 playing more minutes. Anthony Parker can play SF as well and he’s being slept on but will really help the Cavs and hurt LBJ owners.

  • http://www.hibachi20.blogspot.com Hursty

    Who’re the top 8 guys (right now) for a ROTO league?
    It doesn’t count FG%, but it does include all “solid” numbers, e.g. 3pts made (not attempted though), steals, rebounds, assists etc.
    I’m set for H2H, but don’t know about the 5-8 spots for ROTO.
    Thanks fellas.

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