Wednesday, October 7th, 2009 at 11:30 am  |  113 responses

GM Survey: The Results Are In

by Tzvi Twersky

For eight years running, GMs League-wide have filled out a detailed NBA.com survey. Consisting of 60 questions, ranging from team oriented  to player oriented questions, the League’s 30 GMs weighed in on how they see things shaking out this upcoming season. As of late yesterday afternoon, this year’s results have been sorted and posted.

Not allowed to vote for the team they work for or the players on their squad, GMs agreed, overwhelmingly so, that the Lakers will win the Finals and that LeBron will repeat as MVP. Having correctly chosen L.A. and Bron last year (as Lang did in his ’08-09 NBA season preview), there’s no reason to think they won’t be right again this season. Of course, they also predicted that Andrew Bynum was the “most likely to have a breakout season” last survey, so don’t buy what they’re selling too blindly.

While the answers mainly adhere to last season’s, there are a few subtle and not so subtle changes that are notable. First off, last season 66.7 percent of GMs said that Kobe Bryant “forces opposing coaches to make the most adjustments.” One year and a ring later, Kobe has fallen behind LeBron, earning just 23.2 percent of tallied votes. Notable as well, Dwight Howard earned 46.4 percent as “best defensive player in the NBA,” labeling him as GMs favorite defender. Last season KG was No. 1 in that category, holding over 44 percent of all votes. Of greatest note, last year the percentage of GMs that picked Derrick Rose to win ROY was less than the total of GMs who chose Mike Beasley, Greg Oden, OJ Mayo, Kevin Love, Anthony Randolph or Russell Westbrook to win the award. Not the best news for this year’s favorite, Blake Griffin.

As a whole, some of these predictions are mad obvious and foregone conclusions; others seem to show GMs thinking outside the box. Either way, read the predictions; question ‘em; decide whether you like or dislike ‘em. In nine months time, we’ll be able to tell just how smart, omniscient and clairvoyant NBA GMs really are.

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  • sab

    that isn’t, statiscally, the chances of the Cavs reaching 70 wins. but thanks.
    the real point is that the discussion has veered well away from where it was, because people are more interested in petty point-scoring.
    as i say (again), the question was “will lebron repeat as MVP”…

  • Teddy-the-Bear

    Jukai, I don’t think that’s the statistical probability of the Cavs winning 70 games… That’s more like the percentage of teams who have already won 70 games. Although, that isn’t exactly a huge number.

  • NUPE

    It’s clearly possible for the Cavs to win 70 games this year. I would not say probable, but possible yes. They are much better and hungrier than last year, but it will be injuries (and possibly Delonte) that will really determine what happens. All the upgrades they made were to correct weaknesses, it seems like a lot of other teams didn’t necessarily fix a weakness but moreso swapped players. Boston though, got more depth. Lakers and Orlando I think got better, but not in areas of weakness (e.g. Artest is better than Ariza, but I would not say Ariza was weak). Cleveland got longer, more athletic and more interior pressence that can at least be of consequence. 70 games possible, not probable.

  • http://www.manutd.com Z

    In between all of your numbers, Myles, you’ve kinda missed my point that the fact that it hasn’t been done a lot is not a reason to say that it is improbable for this particular Cleveland team to win 70 games. If I would have said that they are looking at another 65+ wins would you have agreed? You’re petty. The fact that those teams didn’t get multiple 60+ wins had nothing to do with history but circumstances changing. Trades, people retiring, people getting old. Those are reasons why teams don’t stay that good for a long time. You haven’t adressed any of those issues for Cleveland. They ARE better than that 66-win team. History has no bearings on how much games you win, it’s about context and circumstances. Don’t tell me that Cleveland won’t win 70 because the 95 Spurs didn’t do it. Tell me about their coach, their depth, etc. / Jukai, your math is very flawed.

  • http://www.manutd.com Z

    Stop taking shortcuts, Myles. Your trend is irrelevant, not your opinion. Your opinion lacks credibily, that’s not the same thing. People putting their bias on the table helps you understand where they’re coming from. If someone criticizes Obama on everything and happens to hate blacks at the same time, I’d like to know so I can put his comments in a context. / Stop wasting your time fighting against the Church of LeBron, it’s empty. How many analysts or fans do you know that won’t acknowledge that he needs to work on his jumper and post moves? Yes, it would be surprising (but not impossible) if he went his whole career without a title considering that he’s 1a or 1b in the league and he has at least 10 more years to play, if not more. That’s an outrageous claim to you? How many players that were considered at a point the best player in the L never won a ‘ship? Malone, Barkley, Iverson.. they were never considered the best player in the NBA at any point in their career. That’s actually kinda logical to think that he has a good chance of winning one title at some point in his career like Shaq, Kobe and TD. That’s his tier, guys that were/are on top of the NBA. / So yeah, if you want to believe that you’re just trying to balance the debate between sycophants that don’t really exist and rational ppl such as yourself. Carry on. In the meantime, I’m just going to take anything you say about Bron with a shaker of salt.

  • http://www.manutd.com Z

    And to get back to my original point, which you haven’t really touched upon: LeBron has a really good chance of repeating because Kobe will have to share the wealth a lot more this year in LA and Miami won’t get enough wins for D-Wade to make a run. Those are really his only 2 competitors. So yeah, call it a shoe in or whatever. It’s his to lose because of the circumstances in which Kobe and Wade will operate.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

    “The fact that those teams didn’t get multiple 60+ wins had nothing to do with history but circumstances changing. Trades, people retiring, people getting old. Those are reasons why teams don’t stay that good for a long time. You haven’t adressed any of those issues for Cleveland.”

    People getting old? Like Shaq? Trades? That affect chemistry? Like all of the ones that the Cavs made this summer? Or people taking unexcused absences like Delonte?

    “Don’t tell me that Cleveland won’t win 70 because the 95 Spurs didn’t do it. Tell me about their coach, their depth, etc”

    Okay. Mike Brown has been exposed as an awful coach who is supposed to be a defensive guru but cant devise a proper strategy to stop his team from being decimated by the pick and roll. He still hasnt devised any semblance of an offensive strategy that doesnt involve Bron going one on four surrounded by shooters who cant create their own shot/be relied upon consistently.

    “Your trend is irrelevant, not your opinion. Your opinion lacks credibily, that’s not the same thing.”

    The trend isnt irrelevant. Its a fact that supports my opinion that its highly improbable that the Cavs will improve from 66 wins to 70 wins, because it would be completely unprecedented. I provide facts to support my opinions so that you cant just claim Im hating out of bias, yet you disregard the facts Ive provided and supply none of your own to refute my assertions. Only your own openly biased opinion. The only reasons youve provided to support the Cavs winning 70 is that they won 66 last year and theyve gotten better. Well its yet to be seen if theyve gotten better and more importnatly adding players doesnt necessarily mean youre adding wins.

    “Stop wasting your time fighting against the Church of LeBron, it’s empty. How many analysts or fans do you know that won’t acknowledge that he needs to work on his jumper and post moves?”

    Besides you? I said his post game sucks and that if he had a more reliable one he wouldnt have to depend on that streaky jumper and you claimed that his posst game is adequate. I continue to believe that for a player of his size and skill, his post game is hardly sufficient.

    “And to get back to my original point, which you haven’t really touched upon: LeBron has a really good chance of repeating because Kobe will have to share the wealth a lot more this year in LA and Miami won’t get enough wins for D-Wade to make a run.”

    I-and no one else for that matter-addressed your initial point because it got lost in your presumption that the Cavs will win 70 games. But not before you said “And I know that cats are down on Cleveland because of the way they ended the season” because you know that even if the Cavs are atop the East again this season there will be skepticism about them-and by extension,Bron-until they truly produce in the postseason. Because you know that will be on the minds of the MVP voters, regular season award or not. Because just as it was for several other players before him, who are readily available to anyone who cares to do the research, were denied successive MVPs because of their disappointing postseasons. (Except Nash, as another commenter already noted…) And like it or not, when a 66 win team is ravaged the way the Cavs were last year and fail to reach the Finals, then eventually an onus will be put on said MVP candidate to ‘prove himself’ before he receives another one. This is not any bias speaking, this is documented history and precedent. And you know it. But if the Cavs do manage to defy the odds and achieve what no other team in league history has in improving from 66 wins to 70 while Bron puts up another 30-8-8 then yes, he will deservedly receive another MVP. Pardon me if I dont think thats going to happen. Does that mean hes not even a viable candidate? Of course not, it just means that last year will be on peoples minds until they redeem themselves. As it should be.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

    So again, Ive provided nothing but facts and sound rationale, yet all you can do is point towards a bias and deny credibility. Men lie, women lie, numbers dont. The numbers dont lie. The shortcut is in the half assed rationale that they won 66 and got better, so now theyll win 70.

  • http://www.manutd.com Z

    Your tirade was as long as unconvincing. You’ve provided a lot of numbers to support your opinion but the correlation is still lacking because its based on a premiss that has actually no effect on next year’s win totals for the Cavs. Only in your last post did you address the actual freaking team. It’s obvious to me that they got better but I can accept you thinking otherwise. However, I couldn’t care less that the Bulls didn’t win more than 70 games when MJ retired. Or any other team for that matter. Proving himself will happen in the playoffs, the MVP is a regular season award. He is the leading candidate, and that opinion in shared by the vast majority of the analysts. My point has been commented upon in this very thread but you were too busy coming up with stats. 30-8-8 is very reasonable for him and you’Re assuming that he will need to improve on 66 wins to win the MVP. If they’re first in the East, that should be good enough. You say his post game sucks and I believe its adequate. Where did I say that it’s not something that he can improve? Nowhere. Moot point. Your Church of Lebron is still empty. Numbers don’t lie, meaningless correlations do. If you tell me that they won’t get close to 70 because they DIDN’T get better, fine. I would disagree because they actually needed a post presence and length on the perimeter and they addressed that. If the 1st game was any indication, Shaq won’t ”clog the lane” for them and there seems to be a chemistry developing between him and Bron. Not that ”clogging the lane” actually exists expect in rethoric since D-Wade, Penny and Kobe had no problems getting to the hoop with the big fella on their team. PHX’s problems wasn’t that Shaq clogged the lane but that he didn’t get out on the break. That’s not a problem in CLE because they don’t get out on the break anyways. If you tell me they won’t get 70 because well they just freaking can’t because that’s not what teams do… That’s plain stupid. This is my last post on this thread no matter how tempting it’ll be to respond to your next comment if there is one. Do they have stats about the 60s and 70s as well on basketball-ref, you might want to look at those.

  • http://fdsjklf.com Jukai

    Is Z just arguing for the sake of arguing…?

  • http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

    Yes. And hes not very good at it.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

    And it wont matter if I strip him of his title and make myself the Sheriff of Credibility deeming him unfit for Bron discussion, being the biased hater I am. So would you like to do it? I know youll remember this as much as I will.

  • http://slamonline.com/ Tzvi Twersky

    Active board I see. Myles, feels like you could write some sort of post about this. Know I’d read it.

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