GM Survey: The Results Are In

For eight years running, GMs League-wide have filled out a detailed NBA.com survey. Consisting of 60 questions, ranging from team oriented to player oriented questions, the League’s 30 GMs weighed in on how they see things shaking out this upcoming season. As of late yesterday afternoon, this year’s results have been sorted and posted.

Not allowed to vote for the team they work for or the players on their squad, GMs agreed, overwhelmingly so, that the Lakers will win the Finals and that LeBron will repeat as MVP. Having correctly chosen L.A. and Bron last year (as Lang did in his ’08-09 NBA season preview), there’s no reason to think they won’t be right again this season. Of course, they also predicted that Andrew Bynum was the “most likely to have a breakout season” last survey, so don’t buy what they’re selling too blindly.

While the answers mainly adhere to last season’s, there are a few subtle and not so subtle changes that are notable. First off, last season 66.7 percent of GMs said that Kobe Bryant “forces opposing coaches to make the most adjustments.” One year and a ring later, Kobe has fallen behind LeBron, earning just 23.2 percent of tallied votes. Notable as well, Dwight Howard earned 46.4 percent as “best defensive player in the NBA,” labeling him as GMs favorite defender. Last season KG was No. 1 in that category, holding over 44 percent of all votes. Of greatest note, last year the percentage of GMs that picked Derrick Rose to win ROY was less than the total of GMs who chose Mike Beasley, Greg Oden, OJ Mayo, Kevin Love, Anthony Randolph or Russell Westbrook to win the award. Not the best news for this year’s favorite, Blake Griffin.

As a whole, some of these predictions are mad obvious and foregone conclusions; others seem to show GMs thinking outside the box. Either way, read the predictions; question ‘em; decide whether you like or dislike ‘em. In nine months time, we’ll be able to tell just how smart, omniscient and clairvoyant NBA GMs really are.

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Tags: Andrew Bynum, Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard, General Managers, GMs Survey, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

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http://www.shawn-kemps-offspring.blogspot.com Eboy

B……get it right, that was two seasons ago. ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
sab

Jacki – yes, the Lakers are a superior unit. one thing which i rarely see brought up in these Kobe v Lebron debates – if Lebron was on the Lakers, whaddya think, 82-0? ok ok, they might lose 5, maybe….
http://www.manutd.com Z

So a 4 win improvement is completely unreasonable? With 4 guys being better than the guys they replaced? Shaq>Ben, AP>Sasha, Moon>Wally, Powe>Joe Smith. Yeah, Orlando, Boston and LA tooled up. But they’re still gonna beat the ish out of every other team in the league. If yesterday’s game was any indication, the chemistry between LBJ and Shaq will be just fine. Let’s face it, the main guys for PHX didn’t want to switch their style to fit Shaq’s game whereas Cleveland is welcoming him with open arms. They know they need him vs the powerhouses.
http://www.manutd.com Z

And about LeBron’s clutchness… the fact that he ranks as the topoo 4th quarter scorer year after year, the fact that he gets countless of game-winning buckets in the last seconds (but not necessarily a fade away jumper as time expires, aka the jordan way), the fact that he hit tjat 3-point shot vs Orlando in the playoffs will not change people’s opinions anytime soon. Was Kobe really more clutch than Bron last year? Yes, if that’s what you want to believe. Kobe’s title as the game’s best closer is something that will not be taken away for him until he retires regardless of any factual evidence. Exactly like Shaq and his most dominant ever thingy, whatever that means. Accept it, keep moving.
http://www.manutd.com Z

Wayno et al. Yes, absolutely. Write me down for that prediction.
http://myspace.com/brandnew Bryan

Even if a team gets better it doesn’t always mean their record will be better , they may coast through some games or take awhile to gel etc there’s plenty of things. 65 wins is a big deal and 70 is a lot harder than “just five more wins”
http://slamonline.com Allenp

Z
70 wins is a lot.
I mean, only one team has every done that, and that team featured the two best swingmen in the game at the time. And they were totally familar with each other for the most part. Cleveland improved, but they made some big changes.
I am interested to see what Mo Williams does this year with fewer shots, but more high quality shots.
http://www.manutd.com Z

Now, don’t get me wrong: 70 wins is a lot of wins! I just don’t see it as something completely unattainable for Cleveland as most of you guys were suggesting. They’re really, really good. Yes, they played like crap vs Orlando in the playoffs but that’s still a very good team that got better. / Allen, Mo was already getting plenty of quality shots. He should be around 45% from 3 again. / The only question mark is Delonte right now. They just have to know if he’s going to be available or not. I don’t trust Boobie as a back up point and I’m not sure Danny Green is ready for real minutes on a contender.
http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

Im sorry, I saw the number 70 and started laughing so hard I choked on my lunch.
http://www.manutd.com Z

Myles, you have no credibility in discussing anything that is remotely related to LeBron James. I think that’s a very well known fact. If someone would have predicted 66 wins around the same time last year, you would choked on your proverbial lunch as well.
sab

and, if i may, isn’t Z’s point “the Cavs are being slept on”, not “the Cavs will win 70 games”? people get too caught up in fking semantics on this website – grow up
http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

Thats right, I have no credibility. Forgot about that. And its been established as FACT. By you, of course. Even though you begrudingly acknowledged that I just might know what Im talking about when it comes to the NBA. How about this, if I have no credibility regarding LeBron James then neither do you, being the unabashed fanboy that you are. Im sorry I find it even remotely ridiculous that you think theyre “prolly looking at 70 wins” something that-as its already been noted-has only been accomplished by ONE other team in the history of the sport. The Lakers won the title and they got better, but you wont ever hear me talking about 70 wins. Hell, people werent even considering the Bulls for 70 wins after they already had done so. Its a remarkable achievement that requires sustained focus, absolute chemistry, a favorable schedule and not one injury to a key player. For you to consider it not only a possibility, but a probability, is proof positive that you have no credibility when it comes to discussing LeBron James. And that has now been established as fact. By who? Me. Cause apparently thats the way facts work around here.
http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

I dont think anyone in the league will win 70 games this year. Does that mean I have no credibility when discussing the entire NBA or just your favorite team?
http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

I dont think anyone in the league will win 70 games this year. Does that mean I have no credibility in discussing NBA basketball or just your favorite team?
Teddy-the-Bear

It amuses me just how much Orlando gets slept on. Its incredible. They manhandle the Cleveland LeBrons–I mean Cavs, beat the Celtics IN BOSTON in a Game 7… But wait, the Cavaliers are some how miraculously going to win it in the East. GM’s are major hype machines for star
http://fashionsensei.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/jackie-moon.jpg Jackie Moon

Eboy
Didn’t you say the Lakers were going to lose last year? Where’s my apology?
Simmy Sosa

Its important to note that these are GMs and NOT coaches.
http://realcavsfans.com Anton

The Cavs will win 80 games.
http://myspace.com/2grownup2beshownup Jack

Co-sign Teddy. But they did lose Hedo and the kid from Kentucky. I’d like to know which GM says that Melo is better than Bron. Wonder if it was the same one who wanted him taking the game-winner?
http://www.manutd.com Z

Okay, let’s establish those facts for a sec: 1- I never questioned your hoops knowledge. 3- You have a very strong bias against LeBron James. We went through that already and I dug your irrational full of vitriol posts, especially in the playoffs, that made absolutely no sense. 3- The reason why I generally disregard your comments on Bron is that you will deny to your grave that you have a bias against him whereas it’s pretty obvious to anyone that has been on this side for a minute that he’s my fave player. Just do like Ryan or Eboy do when they talk about Kobe and put your bias on the proverbial table. You refuse to do that and try to pass off your comments as objective. Hence the loss of credibility. 4- They might win 66 again, they might win 68, they might win 70. This is the team that lost ONE game at home all season if you disregard the last game of the season when they were resting everybody and lost in OT. They ARE in that ballpark based on what they did last year and the acquisitions that they made. You consider a leap from 66 wins to 70 to not be feasible. I would respectfully disagree.
http://www.slamonline.com James the balla

So they lost 2 games Z? If you disregard one game? lol
http://www.manutd.com Z

James, I know I can always count on you to shoot down my main argument, i.e., they’re a pretty good home team. Yes, I am disregarding the last game of the season where the starting 5 was: Delonte, Sasha, Wally, Darnell Jackson and Andy V. A game where Boobie and Lorenzen Wright played 35+ minutes. I’ll go out on a limb and say that they would have prolly beat the Sixers if LeBron, Mo and Z had played. That’s neither here or there, though.
http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

First of all, if you count like that its pretty easy to get to 70. My bias is not against Bron himself but towards the ‘fact’ that hes a flawless player hindered by a weak supporting cast and once thats addressed his uninterrupted reign is inevitable. I dont know him, have only spoken with him once, and he was actually quite a nice guy. I have no personal vendetta against him. (Theyre a great team when theyre winning, but when they lose, everyone sucks but Bron…) Regardless, here are some actual facts. Every year this decade-I didnt go back any further because this should be enough to constitute a trend-the team with the leagues best record regressed the following year.(01-02 The Spurs remained at 58 wins, but were not the leagues best team since the Kings won 61 the following year). Whether this was through trades, suspensions, injuries or complacency, it reinforces the idea that it is very difficult to improve on such a feat when in addition to all of these circumstances everyone else is gunning for you. Yet in spite of this actual fact, you seem to believe that Cleveland will not only defy this trend, but do so in a manner that only one other team in league history has accomplished. Pardon me if I-and anyone else for that matter-finds this to be improbable at best and laughable at its worst. The Cavs were a combined 3-6 against the Celtics, Magic and Lakers last season, three teams who theyll probably have to go through in order to win a chip and whove also added significant pieces themselves. If Clevelands struggles continue with that same record this year, that means they can only lose 6 other games the entire season, which while possible is not probable. And according to your logic, if the teams that were better than Cleveland last year also got better, then that record shouldnt improve either. Of course an actual logical person would acknowledge that they could improve on that record against the leagues elite, but a significant portion of that scenario rest on the shoulders, back and knees of Shaq, who is aging as we speak and is no longer the beneficiary of the Suns medical staff. And of course there is the issue of ‘Coach of the Year’ (HA.) Mike Brown posting 66 and 70 wins in back to back seasons….
http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

Just went through the 90s and the trend still holds up. The 96-97 Bulls won 69 games, a league best, but it was still a regression from their 72 wins in the previous year. The 98-99 Jazz won a league high 37 games, but that was a lockout shortened year, so theres no way to determine whether they wouldve improved on the previous seasons 62 wins. Should I keep going? Or can you acknowledge that ‘The Cavs won 66 last year and they got better so theyll prolly win 70 this year’ is a statement that flies in the face of actual facts and isnt ‘probable’ at all?
http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

Ooh! I found one! The 1981 Boston Celtics won 62 games, a ONE game improvement on their record of 61-21 the previous year. And they improved by another game in 1981-82 to 63-19. Then they did it again by going from 62-20 in 84 to 63-19 in 85 to 67-15 in 86. So they only team that has accomplished this in the last 20 years of basketball is one that is widely regarded as one of the best teams of all time. Do you think the Cleveland Cavaliers have a squad of that caliber? Are these actual facts or my bias showing? Cause this seems to lend credence to the idea that youre just as prone to biased exaggeration as you think I am. That and you dont know what facts are as opposed to subjective presumptions.
http://www.manutd.com Z

1- If you’ve watched the Orlando series, how can you NOT agree that everyone DID suck but Bron? 2- Who called him flawless? Do you have to be flawless to be considered the best player in the L or just be the most productive player? 3- You’re implying that I said that they wouldn’t improve their record against the top 3 teams. I just said that they got better as well. That’s a shortcut. 4- No more than 6 losses against the other team would be impressive but certainly not impossible or even improbable. 5- They have nothing to be complacent about and au contraire, they seem to be highly motivated by their early exit and Shaq wants to prove the naysayers wrong. 6- Your ”trend” is completely irrelevant for predicting future outcomes because you can’t isolate the factors of these ”regressions”. Why did the Bulls win 69 games after winning 72? Do you really believe it has to do with complacency? If some other team had won 74 games the year they won 72, would they have been in a better position to win more than 72 the year after since they wouldn’t have add the league’s best record? 7- If they win 68 games this year, will you defiantly proclaim that you told me so or just acknowledge that they were in that ballpark? 8- It’s kinda cute that you will still deny any bias against Bron. Just go back to your first post in the game 3 or 4. I think that your head was exploding as you were sh!tting in your pants when you commented. That’s it for me, good night fellas.
http://www.slamonline.com James the balla

Z … I am disregarding the game where TROY MURPHY from the PACERS won agianst the Lakers. So the Cavs and Lakers had the same record lol.
Thanks for counting on me. Hopefully you are here for the Bron and Kobe debates throughout the season. And Teddy. I keep telling all my boys that Orlando is going to be CRAZY his year. Top of the East if you ask me.
http://www.slamonline.com James the balla

this year**
Teddy-the-Bear

I don’t think Turkoglu is any worse than Carter and he creates match-up problems, but the Magic got so much more than just Vince. They also got Brandon Bass who’s going to breakout this year, along with Matt Barnes. Pretty good if you ask me. Rashard gets to play his natural position (although the pick-n-pop won’t work as well against athletic small-forwards). Courtney Lee to New Jersey hurts the Magic in the long run, but for now Vince obviously compensates for that. Magic are scary this year. I see them as third in the East and going to the ECF at least.
http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

Because despite his unbelievable averages, he had moments where he sucked too (i.e. multiple turnovers and missed FT). If youre going to look at the numbers look at all of them. But apparently even addressing that constitutes a loss of credibility. I never attributed one reason to any teams regression in that trend, I said a myriad of factors could be the root problem but the FACT (theres that pesky word again…) still remains that you have to go back more than 20 years to find a team who improved on their league best record. And yes, I did consider second place improving in this trend but when were talking about a 66 win team improving to 70 then were not talking about a second place team, are we? No one is sleeping on them and theyre not going to sneak up on anyone. Such an established history of the leagues best failing to remain so is hardly a coincidence. Its very, very, difficult to sustain such play, but you treat it as though its a mere formality. And I dont get any validation out of telling strangers I told you so. If anything the point of this exercise was to highlight how youre just as biased as you think I am, therefore youre in no position to confirm or deny anyones credibility when it comes to Bron and the Cavs. Thanks for playing.
http://idunkonthem.blogspot.com/ albie1kenobi

i would like to point out that during the 2006-07 season, Mavs won 67 games. granted they crap their pants and had fizzled out since, it means having one very successful regular season is no indication of next season plays out.
and the reason that no other team other then the 95-96 bulls had 70 wins is because – to quote Myles – “Its a remarkable achievement that requires sustained focus, absolute chemistry, a favorable schedule and not one injury to a key player.” I have a hard time seeing the cavs team running on all cylinders right off the bat, nor doing it consistently for half a year straight, nor shaq breaking down somewhere along the season. this is not to say they won’t be a great team, but 70 wins means a winning percentage of 85%. that’s A LOT to ask for.
http://idunkonthem.blogspot.com/ albie1kenobi

70 wins requires everything to go right for a team, with sustained focus for 6 months straight. a winning percentage of 85% is pretty damn difficult for that long stretch of time.
http://myspace.com/brandnew Bryan

Co sign myles 100%. But myles don’t you know everytime your arguement proves z wrong its a cop out or a shortcut. Get with it he only works in “facts”.
http://hibachi20.blogspot.com Blinguo

No Anton, 86 games, 70 + 16 playoff games = Rappin’ Shaq part 5.
http://nationofmillions.ca ciolkstar

Man, how does this not get old for yall. Myles is a hater. But I think its just contrarianism or misguided Kobe slurping.
Bron does get a little too much love though. He’s not perfect, but he IS the best player in the L and has been for a minute.
http:///realcavsfans.com Anton

Aw hell yeah, Bling.
peter

Think what people fail to realize is that injury’s hit the East teams hard last year. Washington, Pistons(no chauncey), etc. Obviously the other teams would improve dramatically. Welcome to the shaq effect- ie. going from elite to barely pushing playoffs.
http://www.manutd.com Z

”as biased as you think I am”… oh man, give it a rest, Myles. Your argument is hollow, at least MY bias has been acknowledged from the get go. And I will not give you any credibility on this topic until you acknowledged yours (which you won’t do, of course, because it doesn’t exist, right?). Therefore: we don’t believe you, you need more people. Keep moving.
http://fdsjklf.com Jukai

Z, I love you, and you’re right, Myles has a huge anti-Lebron bias…
but he’s got you beat here so bad, it’s painful…
Let this one go, there will be other battles!
Teddy-the-Bear

Exactly what is Z beat at here? What did he say that was so wrong? 66 and 70 is not that huge of a gap; they are both incredibly high numbers of wins in a season. It was surprising enough for LeBron James to carry his team to that many wins last season, so what’s the big deal here? Last year Myles would have been saying the same exact arguments if Z were to predict the Cavs amassing over 65 wins.
Granted, do I think the Cavs are going to do that well? No I don’t. But Z isn’t exactly “beat” here from what he said; its rational.
http://bluezebrapurse.info Blue Zebra Purse

Great! Your site is finally back up. I was beginning to wonder…
Eddie LOmax

I’ve said it before kids. Once LBJ irons out the flaws in his jump shot (Euro shooting coach??) and hits 80% – 85% from the line, IT’S OVER!! I predict him doing an MJ later in his career (or even earlier)and just straight backing sucka’s down for the easy fall away etc. FYI, Kobe’s a BEAST on defence, he D’s up in F-N ALLSTAR games people.
P.S Any word on Patty Mills injury?
Eddie LOmax

NBA players should NEVER be intimidated by other players on the court, W.T.F. Do they think Ron Ron will be waiting outside by the bus after the game on some Tonya Harding shit?? Ron, Kobe, D Wade and other elite defenders in the L are great because of their strength, lateral quickness, determination and intensity.
sab

i love how Myles changed “they’re probably looking at 70 wins” to “they’ll probably win 70 games”… kinda proves my point from earlier… people are too interested in arguing nonsense… whereas Z’s point was “Cleveland will win enough games for LeBron to be voted MVP”
http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

How does acknowledging a bias make a point more relevant? If someone openly admitted their biases against blacks or gays, would that make their arguments against civil rights more relevant? What kind of backwards sh*t is that? More importantly why would I have a personal bias against LeBron? Out some misguided allegiance to Kobe? Hardly. There already have been and will be better and more talented players than him in NBA history so its not like Im protecting his sole proprietorship to any title. Ive openly acknowledged a million times that Bron is easily the greatest physical specimen ever to grace the league and he has every tool needed to become its greatest ever. My beef is not with LeBron, its with the Church of LeBron. The shameless sycophants who dont care to acknowledge the work he needs to put in and the goals he needs to achieve to fulfill that promise. In that sense I am biased against discussions involving Bron just as some are when folks treat Kobe the same way and say hes equal to Jordan. I guess thats the point, I feel like some people confuse promise as in ‘potential to be the greatest’ and promise as in ‘I PROMISE you, he WILL be the greatest’. But whatever. Call me a hater. Improving from 66 to 70 wins has NEVER been done before in NBA history and to treat it as a probability just cause they added Shaq is silly.
http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

And sab, you wanna talk about semantics, what exactly is the difference between those two statements? Z never denied it, in fact he tried to prove why it was a reasonable assertion. I provided facts to support my belief that it wouldnt and as usual he relied on my Bron bias to ignore those facts.
http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

Its late and this is probably petty but Im awake and I like to learn. So here are the teams since 1990 that have won 60+ games: 91 Blazers 63-19, 91 Bulls 61-21, 92 Bulls 67-15, 93 Knicks 60-22, 93 Suns 62-20, 94 Sonics 63-19, 95 Spurs 62-20, 95 Jazz 60-22, 96 Magic 60-22, 96 Bulls 72-10, 96 Sonics 64-18, 97 Heat 61-21, 97 Bulls 69-13, 97 Jazz 64-18, 98 Bulls 62-20, 98 Jazz 62-20, 98 Lakers 61-21, 98 Sonics 61-21, 00 Lakers 67-15, 02 Kings 61-21, 03 Spurs 60-22, 03 Mavs 60-22, 04 Pacers 61-21, 05 Suns 62-20, 06 Pistons 64-18, 06 Spurs 63-19, 06 Mavs 60-22, 07 Suns 61-21, 07 Mavs 67-15, 08 Celtics 66-16, 09 Celtics 62-20, 09 Lakers 65-17 and the 09 Cavs 66-16.

Thats 32 teams.

How many of those teams managed to win 60+ the following year?

5 teams.

92 Bulls, 97 Bulls, 98 Jazz, 07 Mavs, 09 Celtics

How many of those 32 teams actually improved on their previous years record?

2 teams.

92 Bulls, 07 Mavs

15% of teams since 1990 who win 60 games manage to do so the following year. 6% of teams since 1990 who win 60 games actually manage to improve on their record.

Therefore, it is highly IMPROBABLE that a 66 win team would manage to win 60 games the following year, much less IMPROVE on that record to 70 wins.

Those are the FACTS. And bias has nothing to do with it.
http://www.slamonline.com Myles Brown

Forgive me, I miscounted. Its actually 33 teams. Or 34 if you count the 89-90 Lakers who went 63-19 and 58-24 the following year. Which brings those percentages down to 14% and 5%.
sab

Myles, it’s called English, it’s a language we like to use to communicate. the first statement, the one that Z actually made, reads to me like it is (or should be) their target, and he justified that perfectly well – they won 66 last year, and they’re better this year.
it seems to be that it’s been misinterpreted since then as “i think the Cavs will win 70 games next year”. i don’t think that’s what he said.
i agree, it’s unlikely that it will happen – they’ll probably fine-tune a lot ready for the playoffs, and besides, apparently there’s a huge historical precedent against it….
but i don’t think the original statement, “they’re probably looking at 70 wins”, was unreasonable, especially in the context of a counter-argument to “LeBron won’t win MVP next year cos he won it last year”. i can’t see who else could win MVP, and LeBron’s squad will still probably get enough wins to justify him winning the award. the only other candidates are CP3 and Wade, and i can’t see the Hornets or the Heat having good enough seasons to justify that. of course Kobe too, but he’ll probably defer to teammates even more during the regular season to save himself for the playoffs. i can’t see him overtaking Bron again now that Bron has overtaken him
http://fdsjklf.com Jukai

Sab: if you’re so great at understanding the subtle nuances of our written language, than you surely understand that Myles was simply trying to prove what a absurd, aberrant and completely unreasonable statement it is to make that Lebron’s team has a chance to reach 70 games.
I mean, you’re such an expert on English, so I hope you know your math too, so here’s an equation: 1 divided by the (total number of years the NBA has played a 70+ game season times the total amount of teams that have played every single year). Give me the answer to that number, and that’s statistically the chances of the Cavaliers reaching 70.
Really. Honestly.

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