Monday, December 14th, 2009 at 12:42 pm  |  45 responses

Fantasy Basketball, Week 8

‘Tis the season for trades!

by Charles Peach

There isn’t much left to discover. We know the make-up of most teams. Not many more players will emerge from the waiver wire. If your fantasy team is stuck there is only one possible solution at this point: TRADE!

Use your best judgment when making trades because if you make a crappy one it will send your season into a downward spiral (I’m speaking from experience). When dealing, focus on what the players you are trading for are going to do, not what they’ve done. Sounds like a simple concept, I know, but you can’t base your projections for a player solely upon what he’s done in the first 20-some games of the season.

First, I just want to toss out some random players who I really covet this season. I’m not saying that I’d give an arm and a leg to trade for them but they are providing supreme value for owners right now and most of them were late-round picks:

Andre Iguodala – He wasn’t a late-rounder but I would love to acquire him. I love the way Iggy fills up the stat sheet. Points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and threes. He can do it all. The thing I love most: He’s played all 82 in four of his five seasons.

Raymond Felton – Another guy you can count on to be on the floor. He’s in a contract year and I really like the way he is playing under Larry Brown; not jacking a lot of bad threeBrendan Haywoods, not turning the ball over excessively, and sitting with the league leaders in steals.

Brendan Haywood – Having a great season so far, averaging a double-double (10 points and 10.6 rebounds). He’s also second in the League in blocks per game (2.2).

Marc Gasol – Somehow that Pau Gasol trade doesn’t look so horrible anymore. The other Gasol is averaging 14.4 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, shooting over 60 percent from the field, and filling the stat sheet nicely with 1.6 blocks and 1.1 steals per game.

Channing Frye – He gets great three-point looks in Phoenix and he’s knocking them down 44 percent of them. He’s pulling down nearly six boards each game and averages one block and nearly one steal as well.

Danilo Gallinari – He’s knocking down threes like crazy for the Knicks; about three of them per game. He does just enough in the other facets of the game to make him a very valuable fantasy player this season. Even if Al Harrington is the starter, expect Gallinari to maintain his solid production in the runnin’ and gunnin’ D’Antoni system.

Here are a few ideas for players you could either buy low or sell high on:

BUY LOW

Al Jefferson – Hard to say that he’s a ‘buy-low’ candidate when you look at his last six games (six double-doubles) but overall his numbers are a bit disappointing. Over the previous two seasons Big Al averaged 21.8 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks. All of those numbers are down this season so far (16.5 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 1 block).

Derrick Rose – Most people expected him to take a leap this season and it hasn’t happened yet. One could argue he’s even declined from his rookie campaign. But I’d stay bullish on Rose and if you can steal him at a low rate, I think it would be a smart move.

Mehmet Okur – His scoring and rebounding is down to start the season but you can expect him to make up for that throughGerald Wallaceout the rest of the year.

SELL HIGH

Gerald Wallace – Stock is sky-high right now. His 12.2 rpg ties Dwight Howard for the league lead. That astounding number is 6.5 rebounds higher than his career average. That also means that he’s ‘Crashing’ even more so the chance for injury is greater.

Erick Dampier – Had a couple of monster games recently and his averages in points, rebounds, and blocks are significantly above those from the last few seasons.

Gilbert Arenas – Hibachi had a triple-double in his last outing and I see that as a perfect selling point. He annihilates your field goal percentage and turnover categories, pretty much giving you zero chance to win them each week. Don’t remind your trading partner of this.

Brandon Jennings – Love having Young Money on my squad. Not when I look at my team’s field goal percentage though. Shoot some offers around to owners in need of threes and/or assists. You could get something very nice in return for your late-round investment.

One other thing that commonly happens around this time of the year is FOP or Fantasy Owner Panic. That’s right; you might see a bottom-dweller in your league irrationally drop a good player out of frustration. So be on the lookout for FOP – it could make you a lucky SOB. Now, to the waiver wire which is thinning out as we speak:

Pickups

(Amongst the players discussed in this section last week, Mike Conley and Chris Duhon should be given a hard look.)

Jarrett Jack – Jose Calderon missed all of last week with a sore hip and is expected to miss some more time, how much is yet to be determined. If you have room to add Jack this week, I highly suggest it, considering he nearly triple-doubled in two of his four starts last week.

Yi Jianlian – Nearing a return for New Jersey. He’s risky becauseJJ Barea of frequent injuries but I think he’ll play an important role for the Nets and should be stashed on your fantasy team. The 7-footer is able to hit the deep ball, block shots, and nearly average a double-double.

JJ Barea – He returned to the starting lineup for the first time since the playoff series against Denver last season. In his three starts last week he averaged an admirable 12 points and 7 assists per game. He was also efficient with steals and threes.

Omri Casspi – Nocioni has been playing well and thus keeping Casspi off his back. But the first Israeli in the NBA seems poised to get more minutes in Sac-Town. He put together a couple of nice games in his last two: averaging 17 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2 threes.

On The Radar

Mike Miller – He’s coming back from a calf injury that sidelined him for about a month. When he’s played this year he has shot the ball effectively, hitting over half of his three-pointers.

Andray Blatche – While we’re on the Wizards, I just want to mention his name here to keep him on your mind. I feel like the Wiz would be a team likely to make a deal this season and if they do, it could really create an opportunity for Blatche, either in DC or elsewhere.

Martell Webster – I just don’t understand the inconsistency. I used to think it was because Outlaw and Rudy F. were there to mess with his minutes but now both of them are out for long periods of time and Martell hasn’t responded like we hoped. It might click for him soon so watch intently.

Maurice Evans – All of the Hawks last three games were blowouts so that has helped Evans get some extra tick but he really got his stroke going, hitting 11 of 15 threes and averaging 18.3 points in that span.

Tyler Hansbrough – Nice week for Psycho-T. He averaged 17.7 points in three games. With Danny Granger out of the lineup for the next month or longer, there are some extra minutes to go around.

Brandon Rush – The time is now for Rush to show what he’s got. Like Hansbrough there are a number of Pacers who’d like to make up for those chunk of minutes that Granger left behind. Mike Dunleavy is working his way back into the starting lineup so Rush will have to battle with Dahntay Jones.

Jason Maxiell – Since he has replaced Charlie Villanueva in the starting lineup the Pistons are 6-1. His stats aren’t impressive but if he were to get more minutes he could become a factor. Charlie V is still getting his numbers but for whatever reason they prefer to bring him off the bench.

Louis Amundson – Just keep him on your watch-list. He had a nice line against Denver on Saturday; 12 points, 11 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 2 steals. When Stoudemire and Frye are in foul trouble he gets the opportunity to do things like that but he can only become valuable if one of those guys gets injured or Coach Gentry gives up completely on Frye.

Other Fantasy Note

- Rip Hamilton is back. After a 21-game hiatus due to injury, he posted 18 points and 3 steals. Will Bynum and Ben Gordon were sitting out with injuries so it is yet to be seen how the rotation will shake out, especially when Tayshaun returns.

Fantasy Line of the Week
LeBron James: (@OKC) 44 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 threes, 4 steals

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  • http://slamonline.com/ Ryne Nelson

    Thanks for this, Charles. A word about trades… you usually have to offer deals in order to improve your team. Great trades don’t often show up out fo thin air. As a matter of fact, in one League, I’ve only been offered one trade thus far. Improvement, at this point, is on you!

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    Hey Charles, I wrote this on last weeks. But I guess since it was so late I’ll just repost it here..
    niQ Posted: Dec.14 at 11:37 am
    Yea, I kept Curry over the weekend. Someone picked up Duhon yesterday so ah wells. Lou Williams was dropped. Which begs the question, should I drop Curry for Lou? He’s still like.. at LEAST 1.5 months away from returning though… Kinda far..
    It’s hard to predict Lou’s value once he returns since AI is there. AI’s contract is til Jan. 10 or something, but I doubt they’ll let him go just cause Lou is back. Eddie Jordan has said he wants to start AI and Lou together. And based on that I kind of doubt Lou will be able to maintain the 17 ppg. I’ve loved Curry enough to keep him this long (I know I always ask if I should trade him.. but that’s just cause his assists number are a bit down.) But yea, there’s always that potential in Lou Williams. Tough decision. I’m probably keeping Curry for now, but Lou looks like a great addition.

  • jdn41

    i have lebron james and radmanvic for billups and aldrige (i think i can get brooke lopez in for aldrige tho) should i pull the trigger?

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    Never trade away Lebron. That’s my 2cents.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @niQ: Tough question. If u can afford to stash Lou without slipping too far in the standings I would go for it. AI’s presence certainly won’t help Lou but I dont think it will kill him. He was playing great ball before the injury. Hopefully AI is willing to become more of a mentor to him. I think that would be the best scenario for the Sixers moving forward.
    @jdn41: I agree with niQ. Rarely is it a good idea to trade LeBron. It’s never a good idea to give up the best player in a deal. I’d have to hear Chris Paul’s name if I was trading Bron.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @Ryne: That’s right. You have to be proactive and it’s really the funnest, most challenging aspect of fantasy sports. If you are able to pull off a deal which propels your team into the playoffs or further it is very rewarding. Either way you learn a lot from the experience.

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    Fantasy-wise, in most cases Lebron would be worth another team’s first and 2nd pick together. Probably.

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    And Charles, I’ve made up my mind, IF Lou is still available 2 weeks before he returns, I’ll swap him with Curry. If he’s gone by then, ah wells, at least Curry is getting crazy minutes in GS. (ON the other hand, I COULD overload on guards if i swap Randolph for Lou, since.. Randolph is sometimes barely there anyways. LOL. But I was thinking swapping him either for Tyrus, Yi, or Speights. Which of those 3 would you recommend the most?)

  • Dallas J

    Birdman, Eric Gordon, Lil’ Dun should be good this week

  • http://slamonline.com tina

    Is Tmac going to play this season at all?

  • http://www.need4sheed.com Tarzan Cooper

    im currently trying to deal lamar odom for a sg, eric gordon, manu, etc. lamar has really been pissing me off this year. weak numbers, i have gil and jennings on the same team, but im in first! i have two first place teams and one eighth. that one is racked with injuries. one of my first place teams is waiting on lou williams and blake. when is blake going to play?

  • http://www.need4sheed.com Tarzan Cooper

    and FINALLY al jeff is playing like al jeff. the pau trade? still incredibly bs. jerry west via chris wallace engineered that trade so the lakers would be contenders again. and stern allowed that for obvious reasons. i wish the spurs could have got pau for oberto and bowens corpse.

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    Blake should be playing early 2010.

  • Balltastics2000

    I was trying to trade away Okafor and Richard Jefferson all year but getting no bites. I finally dropped Jefferson for Illyasova which has worked out great, and then an owner offered me Stuckey for Okafor! This was a couple of weeks ago so I was able to ship Okafor and then pick Kevin Love up off the wire, and watch him and Stuckey lift my team to first position. Nice.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @niQ: I would go with Tyrus out of those 3. Try with all your might to trade Randolph though. Somebody in your league probably overvalues him. After his next big game put him on the market. Seems like a pretty good plan with LW. Jrue Holiday had a nice game last night, but it was against GS so take it for what it is.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @tina: It’s definitely a possibility but not something you can count on. Maybe he’ll start in the All-Star game though!

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @Tarzan Cooper: Lamar will play better, but I’d be very pissed off too. You can’t trust him. He’s shooting like 40% and turning it over a lot. Those #s will improve but if you can move him that would be ideal.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @Tarzan Cooper: Oh, and Blake will be back in about a month. I would expect him it’ll take him even longer to really get adjusted and comfortable playing on that knee once he’s back.
    @Ballatastics2000: Nice work. Kevin Love is a beast on the boards, so that makes up for Okafor (besides the blocks) and Stuckey is in full breakout mode right now.

  • http://double-technical.blogspot.com Zee!

    Hey Charles, I currently am attempting to trade Noah for Raymond Felton. I have Brook Lopez, Scola, Frye, Dalembert and Dampier as my C options. I have Tyreke, Michael Redd as my SG’s. Should I go through with it?

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    lol Charles, I doubt anyone will take Randolph since I picked him off the free agent list myself. I’m trying to combo Randolph and Brand in a deal for 1 big right now. So far no takers =(

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    @Charles, lol I doubt anyone will take Randolph since I picked up off the Free Agent list as well. I’m trying to package him and Brand in a 2 for 1 deal for a Big. So far no takers tho = (

  • http://www.alllooksame.com Tarzan Cooper

    zee, yes do that trade if you can. but i doubt they will be willing to part with felton, good luck

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @Zee!: I think you can do a little better than Felton. I love what Ray is doing this year and I’m all about acquiring him but I think giving up Noah is a bit too much. 20 boards and 6 blocks tonight – his stock is soaring.

  • Waters

    What is happening with dahntay? Worth dropping him, or would you recommend holding onto him for a little bit longer to see if he can get it going again?

    Also, when is Glen davis coming back? I picked him up and stashed him a few days ago on the hopes he could bring about 10-12 points and 6 to 8 boards a game, maybe a block or steal here and there.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    Hey Mr. Fantasy… Someone dropped Mike Bibby in a 10 cat 12 team league. Is he worth adding? His minutes have been down with Jamal and Joe in the backcourt so much. What say you?

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    Noah has so much more value that Felton. You can get a LOT more than felton.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @Waters: Well, Dunleavy is back in the starting lineup and he took Jones’ spot, not Rush’s. I think the Pacers are really trying to get Rush going but he has yet to show any sign of breaking out. His season-high is 16 points. Hang on to Jones a bit longer.
    Glen Davis is at least two weeks from returning, I think. Even when he returns, I wouldn’t expect him to average 10 & 7 – I think that’s too high. With Sheed in town and KG healthy (healthy enough to play, that is) I don’t see a lot of opportunity for Davis to get numbers.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @Emry: It might not be the right move for you, but it probably is for somebody in your league. You’re right his numbers are down, and I don’t see them changing much since Atlanta is winning. He’s basically in ‘D-Fish mode’ and has little fantasy value.

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    Damn yo, my boy Stephen Curry is killing those steals! It’s going to be hard decision if I decide to pick up Lou Williams now. Damn.. I hope soemone else picks him up so I won’t have to make that decision. hahha

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    My boy Stephen Curry is killing those steals!

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    Hey Charles, Lou has started practise http://www.philly.com/inquirer/breaking/sports_breaking/20091217_Iverson_out_for_Boston_game_Friday.html . Stephen Curry has is a monster on the steals now. If I need to make up my mind now. Should I take Lou Williams? Or ride with Cury for the rest of the way?

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    Come one Peach!!! I need you on this one! In that league, I have Arenas and Baron Davis as the point guards, and Stephen Curry and Jamal Crawford as my PG,SG’s. Another person I’d be willing to drop is Salmons, since he’s been pretty bad as of late. But he’s good for my SF spot, which I only have Rudy Gay and Beasley for. But yea, who should I drop for Lou Williams? Curry, Salmons, or Crawford?

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    I guess its dropping either Curry or Crawford now. Curry gets more stats but Crawford gets more points….. hmmmm

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    Wow. I’m actually leaning towards dropping Crawford and keeping Curry. His steals alone are enough. I compared both players “Last month” stats and Curry is pretty much killing Crawford…Does that sound crazy though? Dropping a veteran over a rookie? for Lou Williams?

  • http://slamonline.com/ niQ

    nvm. someone just picked him up. fcuk.

  • Waters

    Is Anthony Morrow in a funk, or do you think his fantasy value is pretty much going to be nil the rest of the season? JJ barea is available and he is killing it right now. Think it is worthwhile to make that move?

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @niQ: sorry it took so long. I think ur in good shape. had u dropped curry someone wouldve picked him up. He had a career-high last night. I don’t see Lou NOT being negatively affected by Ai’s presence. that and it appears that Jrue H. is earning his share of minutes.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @Waters: I wish I knew. Its impossible to tell with the Warriors. I would guess that he does get out of this funk soon and starts contributing more but there is no consistency in Nellieville. Barea is definitely the better option at the moment, and with him in the starting lineup the Mavs have been very successful.

  • Waters

    if I am adding Lou Williams, best to drop Joel Pryzbilla or Jermaine O Neal?

  • Waters

    I need blocks, steals and boards more than anything else. i am not worried at all about points.

  • Waters

    I need blocks, steals and boards more than anything. I am fine on points.

  • http://www.need4sheed.com Tarzan Cooper

    waters, id say drop jo, his production will fluctuate a lil. ghostface will be very steady, 10 boards, 2-3 blocks. and the occasional monster game. for myself, nobody wants to trade with the first place team, so i got no takers for odom, a couple days ago, i just dropped him for lou williams, thinking im in first and can wait a few weeks for him. THEN LOU PLAYS TONIGHT! awesome, i have him in all 3 leagues. in my 8th place team, i dropped ridnour and redd for duhon and casspi, that team is getting it together and producing better, thanks pau. still waiting on blake, hope hes worth it. why isnt bosh rebounding well now? 2 boards?! one game, then 6, then 8, yuck! my two first place teams are very consistently winning, 3rd team is on the upswing. mr. peach. how are your teams doing?

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @Waters: Personally, I can never count on JO to stay healthy. I just know the second I get him on my team he’s going to break his leg. Przybilla has been very consistent, like Tarzan mentioned, on the boards & blocks so maybe it would be better to drop JO. JO had some monster numbers to start the year but they’re curtailing.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @Tarzan Cooper: Don’t worry, Bosh will get it together. He’s been killin it this year. My teams are doing OK. I’m tied for 1st in one league and in 3rd place in the other league. Danny Granger was my #1 pick in the one I’m 3rd in so I’m trying to hold things together til he returns.

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