Thursday, April 29th, 2010 at 9:35 am  |  18 responses

Early Entrant Russian Roulette

NCAA underclassmen – should they stay or should they go?

by Jeff Fox

‘Tis the season for NCAA underclassmen with NBA aspirations to play Russian Roulette with their futures. Do they declare early for the NBA Draft and hire an agent, thereby forfeiting the rest of their college eligibility. Or should they just test the draft process and if they don’t like what they are hearing head back to school?

Should they stay or should they go? That question, asked by The Clash decades ago (yes, we’re aging ourselves now), is what a large group of players are asking themselves right about now. And, as if the case every year, far too many players make the wrong choice and keep their name in the draft. Now, before we are accused of being “haters”, let’s clarify what we mean by “wrong choice”. We are only interested in what is the best move for a player to make to maximize his potential at a long, successful NBA career. We aren’t considered outside influences that might make a guy decide to enter the draft, whether it be financial concerns or a dislike of school or whatever. So, using those parameters, here are some of the “big name” players who have made the wrong choice declaring for the draft this year.

Lance Stephenson – Cincinnati

It’s ironic that the player dubbed “Born Ready” isn’t deemed ready for the NBA. It’s no surprise that Lance Stephenson is only spending one season in college, but he is being projected as a second round pick at best (which means no guaranteed contract). While he can score and has a strong build, he has a non-existent outside jumper, average NBA athleticism at bTommy Mason-Griffinest (although he looks real athletic here) and has had more than his share of off court issues.

Tiny Gallon and Tommy Mason-Griffin – Oklahoma

It was a disastrous season for the Oklahoma Sooners, and it appears their two prized freshman are making a disastrous decision to enter this year’s draft. With rumors circulating about illegal payments given to Tiny Gallon, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he is leaving school. His game is not NBA-ready, however, neither are his weight nor conditioning. He might sneak into the late second round of this draft. Meanwhile, teammate Tommy Mason-Griffin isn’t projected by anyone as being drafted this year yet he has hired an agent already. His size (5-11) and inconsistency will land him in the D-League or overseas.

Derrick Caracter – UTEP

Derrick Caracter resurrected his basketball career this past season, his first with UTEP. After weight and (ahem) character issues drove him out of Louisville, Caracter righted his ship and was a significant contributor for the Miners. That being said, he’s projected as a very late second round pick at best this year and could have benefited from another year to grow his game — and prove he has matured mentally — in college. Too late for that — he’s hired an agent.

Manny Harris – Michigan

Manny Harris had another solid all-around season in Ann Arbor this year, but he is still not deemed as NBA-ready. He needs to add muscle to his frame and his outside shot needs drastic improvement. Considering he isn’t even a lock to get picked in the late second round, his best bet is to return to Michigan for his senior season.

Read more of Jeff Fox at The Hoops Manifesto and The MMA Manifesto.

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  • JoeMaMa

    Hey Jeff, you missed the other 300 misguided ballers who put their names in when they should be going back to Northeast Podunk Tech State for 3 more years. That said, I think Lance will make it.

  • The Philosopher

    Not too impressed with Stephenson’s game, either. But there are worse players who spent their careers as 10 – 12th men on NBA benches. And he would make good money overseas, too.

  • http://www.hoopsmanifesto.com Jeff Fox

    If time and space permitted, I would include the other 300 players for you!

  • Hussman25

    Who is advising these kids??? This draft class/talent is sooooooo suspect

  • JoeMaMa

    Jeff: The Oklahoma kids have no shot. They should be happy to go D League. Seriously.

  • http://www.hoopsmanifesto.com Jeff Fox

    Agree on the Oklahoma kids.

  • http://SLAM Yanni C

    I think Stephenson, Caracter, Harris & Gallon are talented enough to stick in the NBA. ( all will be second round picks).This draft might go down as the deepest ever.

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  • http://www.hoopsmanifesto.com Jeff Fox

    It is shaping up to be a very good draft year – lots of talented dudes.

  • http://www.bulls.com Enigmatic

    This draft will be deep enough that my Bulls should get a quality player with the 17th pick, but I don’t think it’s that deep. And what the hell is Tommy Mason-Griffin smoking?! The only Oklahoma dude who should of entered the draft is Gallon, just cause he’d probably be ineligible next year! I think even Willie Warren should stick around! What is with kids these days man? It’s bad enough (relatively) so-so players don’t value a quality education that’ll take them far after basketball is over, but they’re gonna let people hype them up enough to believe they’re good enough for the L? Please.

  • http://www.slamonline.com/ niQ

    Too bad Born Ready wasn’t born with an outside shot.

  • http://www.edthesportsfan.com Ed The Sports Fan

    As a person born and raised in Oklahoma, it is truly perplexing to see what is going on with Capel now in Oklahoma. He went from having the most talented player in the nation in Blake to having his program go to sh*t in less than a year. Weird. I think Caracter’s got the best shot of the 4, unless Stephenson finds a way to improve his all-around game. Nice work Jeff!

    -Ed.

  • http://www.stuffwhitepeoplelike.com Tarzan Cooper

    Are they ready? No. Are they grown individuals who will live with their decisions? Yes. You can say theyre not ready and probly be right, but anything beyond that is just hating

  • http://www.hoopsmanifesto.com Jeff Fox

    I’m just saying they aren’t ready for the NBA. No doubt all these guys, if the NBA doesn’t pan out, can carve out nice, long, financially lucrative careers overseas if they keep the right mental approach to it. Making 6 figures, with basically all your expenses paid, overseas isn’t a bad life at all – probably a better one than they could even hope for if they stayed in school and used their degree to get a “real job”.

  • http://slamonline.com Rodger Bohn

    Oklahoma kids are both in. Mason-Griffin has already signed with an agent and Gallon is on his way to do so, based on the fact that he has zero chance of being eligible next season.

    Stephenson claims he’s signing with agent too, although hasn’t done so yet. As we’ve seen with him in the past, unpredictable is his middle name so I guess there’s a slim chance he could return (although I don’t foresee that happening).

    I personally think Manny Fresh should go back to Ann Arbor. This year’s draft is farrr too deep with guys fighting to crack the first round.

  • http://www.yougotdunkedon.com LilKDub503

    They all should stay except MAYBE Lance, and that is really pushing it. I mean, none of them impressed this year, and some agent must be blowing them up too much and now they can’t even get a degree. At least have something to show for your work besides an associate’s degree! Come on!

  • AG

    I think its obvious that Manny Harris left because him and Deshawn Sims were tight and now that Sims has graduated there’s nothing left for him in AA. He apparently liked what he heard about him after his sophomore year so he probably thinks its time to move on.

  • JoeMaMa

    Overseas life isn’t for everyone. I know several guys who’ve gone overseas and been screwed around, didn’t get paid, faced bad politics, couldn’t get burn over worse players, battled xenophobic coaches….etc. These guys shouldn’t be expecting a sweet deal over in Europe; it’ll probably be harder, what with a new language, system, coach, style of play, emphasis on winning and not stats…sigh. D League. These guys, if they want the league, first need the farm system.

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