For those fixing for some last-minute fantasy hoops advice!
by Charles Peach / @Charles_Peach
We’re a week away from the Heat and Celtics kicking off the ‘10-11 season at The Garden. Many leagues will be conducting drafts in the next few days, so here is a last-minute preparation guide with my Top-24 rankings, targets and players to avoid. But first, just a few tips to consider as you prepare to build your squad:
• It’s invaluable to have a player who shoots a lot of free-throws and hits them extremely often. Kevin Durant is the best example, as he sunk 90 percent of his 10.2 attempts per game in the ‘09-10 season. The list of elite free-throw shooters who actually get to the line often is very short. The other charity stripe
stars are Dirk Nowitzki (91.5%, 7.2 FTA), Chauncey Billups (91%, 7 FTA) and Kevin Martin (87.7%, 7.4 FTA). The next tier includes Carmelo Anthony (83%, 8.9 FTA), Paul Pierce (85.2%, 6.1 FTA), Danny Granger (84.8%, 6.9 FTA) and Corey Maggette (83.5%, 7.9 FTA). Brook Lopez (81.7%, 6.2 FTA) and Chris Bosh (79.7%, 8.4 FTA) also deserve a mention here since bigs generally don’t shoot well at the line.
• As much as we love to watch Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo and Russell Westbrook, I advise you to stay away in fantasy. Because they are popular and exciting players, they will likely be drafted higher than their fantasy value. ASSUMING YOUR LEAGUE FOLLOWS THE STANDARD NINE CATEGORIES (FT%, FG%, PTS, REB, AST, 3PT, STL, BLK, TO), these guys end up hurting more than they help. Generally speaking, point guards are helpful with points, assists, threes, steals and free-throw percentage. They are usually hurtful in rebounds, field goal shooting, blocks and turnovers. That’s five positive categories and four negative. Therefore, I NEED MY POINT GUARDS TO HIT THREES! (Sorry to go all Dan Gilbert on you with the caps lock.) You don’t want any player to underperform in more categories than they excel. Rondo is dreadful in four categories (FT%, BLK, TO, 3PT) and slightly below average in two (REB, PTS). His elite assists and steals totals separate him from the other two guys. Rose is counterproductive in threes, rebounds, steals, blocks and turnovers. Westbrook will kill you with his field goal shooting, turnovers and lack of threes. He doesn’t do much blocking and rebounding either. They’re young and improving players. They’re great playmakers. They’ll get you a nice combination of points and assists, and sometimes rebound well for guards. But, since I know there will be at least one person in my league to value them much higher, I’ll be passing on them in my drafts.
• This is a continuation of the previous note, but I think this a strong motto to follow: I need my point guards to hit threes, and my big men to block shots. Don’t take this too close to heart. Use it to help you decipher between two relatively similar players. For instance, if you come to a point when it’s time to take either David Lee or Brook Lopez – go with Lopez. You may be sacrificing a few points and rebounds, but it’ll be worth it for Brook’s blocks.
• Before drafting a player, think about the next best player at that position. How much difference is there? For instance, Kobe is usually being taken somewhere between picks 4-10. Joe Johnson scores slightly less, but also turns it over less than Kobe. Otherwise their stats are quite similar, but Johnson will go about 15-20 picks later in many drafts.
• Many leagues require you start two centers and only one point guard. If you’re in a league like this, you better stack up on bigs early. Plus, the point guard pool is fairly deep this season.
• There is a discernible gap between the third and fourth picks. The top 3 are clear, picks 4-12 promise to be stressors. Don’t worry; the rankings will guide you through it. Just breathe.
• You can’t plan for injuries, but you can limit your risks. Try to avoid drafting multiple injury prone players. If you already drafted Kevin Martin, don’t follow that up with Blake Griffin. Get it?
TOP 24 (Based on standard nine-categories)
1. Kevin Durant – Undisputed. Don’t think twice.
2. LeBron James – What if DWade has the hot hand? I guess he’ll get more assists.
3. Chris Paul – The best player in fantasy two seasons ago.
4. Stephen Curry – Showed amazing confidence as a rookie. Ready to breakout.
5. Dirk Nowitzki – Not the sexiest pick but as reliable as they come.
6. Dwyane Wade – Though he’s always an injury risk. You can’t let him slip by here.
7. Danny Granger – Expect a bounce back season. Darren Collison will help.
8. Pau Gasol – 11.3 rpg last season, by far his career-high.
9. Kobe Bryant – Health a bit of an issue. But will likely post another 25/5/5 season.
10. Amar’e Stoudemire – Should do big things in NY.
11. Deron Williams – Welcoming Al Jefferson to Utah with lots of dimes.
12. Brook Lopez – Like the blocked shots. Could be a 20/10 guy this season.
13. Chris Bosh – Might be the third option, but only option in the post.
14. David Lee – No more Nellie-ball, but should still flirt with 20/10.
15. Dwight Howard – Be ready to punt free-throws, and probably turnovers too.
16. Jason Kidd – Call him old, but he’s still filling the box score up.
17. Carmelo Anthony – He’ll be sure to attract potential suitors for a trade.
18. Gerald Wallace – Phenomenal year last season. This is a good spot for him.
19. Al Horford – Solid fantasy big man. Doesn’t hurt you in many areas.
20. Al Jefferson – The return of 20/10 for Al-J? Jerry Sloan and DWill will help.
21. Steve Nash – Very good in five categories: points, assists, threes and percentages.
22. Joe Johnson – Always a solid fantasy player. Hovers around 20/5/5.
23. Josh Smith – Love how he quit shooting 3s cold turkey last season. Smart move.
24. Joakim Noah – Elite rebounder, great shot blocker. Gets it done.
TARGETS
These players, for whatever reason, will probably be undervalued. They’re listed in the order you should target them. The estimated round they’ll be drafted is in parentheses.
Kevin Love (4) – Stock is very high, might not be around after the 3rd round.
Darren Collison (4) – Will fill up the stat sheet like he did in CP3’s absence last season.
Zach Randolph (4) – Not being treated like a 20/10 guy in drafts. Good value.
Andrew Bogut (5) – Another player not getting much love in drafts.
John Wall (5) – Don’t usually like rookies, but I like him in this round.
DeMarcus Cousins (6) – Don’t usually like rookies, but…
Chris Kaman (7) – Dude is going way too late. I guess people are worried about his health but he played 76 games last season.
Luis Scola (6) – Usually a nice value in the middle rounds.
Jrue Holiday (6) – I think a breakout season is likely.
Jameer Nelson (7) – Always try to grab him as my back up pg late in the draft.
Mike Miller (9) – I like him this late. He’s going to get A LOT of open threes.
JaVale McGee (9) – The JaValevator is a great source of boards and blocks this late.
DJ Augustin (9) – If I don’t get Jameer, I’ll try and grab DJ.
Terrence Williams (10) – This could be a breakout year. Snag him late.
Spencer Hawes (12) – Multidimensional big man who should start in Philly.
OVERVALUED
In addition to Rose, Rondo and Westbrook, these players will also be drafted higher than they should.
Andre Iguodala (3) – I think his offensive role will be dramatically reduced.
Blake Griffin (3) – The way he plays, I can’t trust him to stay healthy.
Brandon Jennings (6)– Field goal percentage will haunt your team.
Anthony Randolph (6) – Let somebody else roll those dice.
Gilbert Arenas (7) – Not a bad value this late, but he’s too unpredictable.
Stay tuned for the draft results of the First Official SLAMonline Family Fantasy League. Follow me on Twitter @Charles_Peach where I’ll be happy to respond to specific draft day decisions. Good luck!
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@niQ: How did the auction go? What was your budget?
@Myles: Who don’t you have? Nice squad, I especially like the Kaman pick. Nice job.
@Emry: Thanks. What?!? J.Kidd’s got another season in him. 37 is young these days.
@Enigmatic: Yeah, it’s debatable. I think Curry will struggle a bit getting used to Smart’s style but he’ll figure it out quick because he’s got a great b-ball iq.
@Aaron: Why punt categories when you can win them? I’m not saying you can’t win when you punt, but it’s not my style. I like to be strong across the board.
I “tout” John Wall in the 5th round. I would not “tout” him any earlier than that. I would take Rose, Westbrook, and Rondo too in the right round.
I have another draft tonight with the standard draft. Although this is the format I’m used to, you can really get screwed over if you’re last or near last pick…
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@Jukai: Curry is a big time fantasy player. I’ve seen him go as high as 3. Who would you take at #4?
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@enigmatichater: Well, Gil did go in Round 8 of one of my drafts. If he plays the entire season that would be really good value.
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@JE: Actually no, the 7th is just where I was seeing him go in some drafts and mocks. I would consider him as high as the 4th, maybe the 5th, definitely the 6th.
Nice write up though. I think Randolph could drop pretty far in my league, what round do you think is acceptable?
%’s don’t count. But made 3′s do.
Thanks Charles.
Appreciate you getting back to guys in the comment section too!
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@MichaelNZ: That’s a nice offer, but if you’re happy with KD and the rest of your squad don’t feel like you need to pull the trigger.
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@RoyistheBoy: In the latest Melo Trade Talks, Randolph is mentioned as a possibility to go to Denver which means he could be in line for some major minutes. I’d consider him in the 7th round, perhaps. Though he’ll probably be going earlier than that. If that trade somehow goes through I think his value would certainly elevate to possibly the 4th round, but if not I wouldn’t take him earlier than round 7.
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@Jukai, RoyistheBoy, Michael NZ: I gotta be honest with you guys. The Curry decision is probably the most difficult to make this year. I’ve definitely second guessed myself a number of times on where he should be drafted. I do think 4 is a bit high, 6 seems a bit better. I’m wary of the Golden State situation this season, but I’ve tried to stay optimistic on Curry because he could be such a dangerous fantasy player once he adjusts. It’s a personal choice, if you don’t feel comfortable taking him that high, I don’t blame you. It’s a risky pick because he couldn’t be any more hyped than he already is and it will be almost impossible for him to meet or surpass these expectations.
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@Hursty: I don’t really get into separating Roto and H2H. I try to write with material that is, hopefully, helpful to fantasy players in general. Some people play roto some play h2h. Some count %’s. Some don’t. Some count turnovers, some don’t. Some leagues are 8 teams, some are 16. You get the point. I base everything I write on H2H, 12-team, standard-nine category leagues. It’s not perfectly tailored to everyone, but in my years of playing fantasy b-ball, those seem to be the most common style of leagues. If there is anything specific decision in your league you’d like my opinion on, I’d be happy to throw in my two cents!
I guess I wasn’t completely clear, so I apologize, but I don’t mean that I wouldn’t draft Rondo, Rose, and Westbrook. My point is that they’ll likely be overvalued (be drafted too early) in most cases because of their popularity. But that’s not what wins in fantasy. I anticipate Rondo going in the 2nd or 3rd round of most leagues. Personally, I just don’t like him that high. If you think I’m wrong or I’m crazy, that’s fine you’re entitled to your opinion. I just tried to defend why I’m not as high on certain players as others are.
Little things like free throw percentage are just as important in fantasy as points and rebounds. Would you ever consider punting those categories?
I don’t like to build my team to win just 5 out of the 9 categories, because what happens if the S hits the fan? Say Dwight goes down and all of your picks were based around his strengths and weaknesses. Also, I avoid Dwight because I like to have as much freedom as possible when I make my picks later in the draft. I don’t want to have to make up for Dwight’s inefficiencies or tailor the rest of my picks to coincide with his strengths. Again, it’s not the only way to do it.
Thanks for replying btw. Appreciate it.
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I picked Curry at 6 in a league (Dirk went 5th, Wade went 7) and I was happy with that. Although his preseason struggles have me worried.
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@Charles: co-sign Hursty… the replies are appreciated.
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@Michael NZ: Curry is the riskiest pick in the first round. If you’re at 6 and Wade is still there, Wade is a tempting pick. He might be safer than Curry. But, I’m optimistic with Curry. I think he’s a great player and an even better fantasy player. He’ll be a joy to own. He might mess around and get a few triple-doubles. And he strokes the threes!
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@niQ: I’d rather have Wall because Jennings will sabotage your field goal percentage.
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@goattree: Kind of tricky to predict who’s around in the 3rd round of a keeper league. How many teams in the league? Can you give me an idea of who will be available?
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@KH: Thanks, ‘preciate the feedback! Who would you take #4? And where would you draft Curry? I love Iggy. He does a little of everything. He’s going in the late-2nd/early-3rd in most drafts, I’d prefer to pass on him that early.
Chris Paul
OJ Mayo
Carmelo Anthony
Luis Scola
Aaron Brooks
Al Horford
Rudy Gay
Joakim Noah
John Wall
Anthony Morrow
Nicolas Batum
Michael Beasley
DeMarcus Cousins
Stephen Curry
Joe Johnson
Paul Pierce
Trevor Ariza
Josh Smith
Kevin Garnett
Andrew Bogut
Shaquille O’Neal
Jameer Nelson
Tyrus Thomas
JR Smith
Ben Gordon
Eddie House
I have Terrence Williams as my last man. There’s Reggie Williams (GS) on the FA list. Should I go for him? The only reason I’d consider Reggie is cause of his 3′s. But what do you think?
I have Terrence Williams as my last man. There’s Reggie Williams (GS) on the FA list. Should I go for him? The only reason I’d consider Reggie is cause of his 3′s. But what do you think?
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@niQ: Keep Terrence Williams. Definitely trade Tim D. for Dirk.
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