Monday, January 10th, 2011 at 3:38 pm  |  14 responses

Fantasy Basketball, Week 12

Preparing for a Denver-New Jersey evacuation.

by Charles Peach / @Charles_Peach

While the Nets try to pry Carmelo Anthony from the Nuggets this morning, we’ll consider the fantasy implications of the proposed deal. This will probably be tweaked, if it even happens, but as of now; Melo, Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Anthony Carter, and Shelden Williams to the Nets. Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, Anthony Morrow, Ben Uzoh, Stephen Graham, and Quinton Ross to the Nuggets. Troy Murphy and Johan Petro to the Pistons. I’ll go with this current structure in order to have a firm rumor to speculate upon. Enjoy!

Hornets Nuggets BasketballChris Broussard reported Monday morning that the current holdup is Denver wanting New Jersey to take the pricey Al Harrington off their hands. It has also been rumored that Harris could be traded to the Mavs after he’s traded to the Nuggets. The Mavs, seeking replacement for Caron Butler, seem like they could use Harrington, especially if it also means landing Harris.

Hate to jump the gun, but if this rumored blockbuster occurs it would be nice to pre-snag the players everyone scurries for when the trade is official. Right? If this particular trade falls through, please disregard. Some of these players are likely owned in your league, others are free agents worth picking up in the midst of all the trade talk:

Troy Murphy – The deal has him linked to Detroit, where he could start. Charlie Villanueva is starting at the moment, but he’s been coming off the bench during most of his short tenure in Detroit. Murphy averaged 14.4 points, 11 rebounds, and two three-pointers through the previous two seasons. I suggest adding him if he’s been cut loose in your league and see if he’s given a chance in Detroit.

Ty Lawson – Dealing Billups is exactly what this kid needs. However, this deal includes Harris heading to Denver. But, if it’s true that Denver then plans to trade Harris to Dallas (or elsewhere), Lawson could very well start the rest of the season for the Nuggets. He’s been tremendous starting in place of Billups this season. In five starts, he averaged 17 points, six assists, three rebounds, 1.6 threes, and one steal, while shooting 53.3 percent from the floor.

Kris Humphries – His two competitors at power forward would be gone if this deal goes through. He’s undoubtedly owned in most fantasy leagues but his stock could be a little lower right now since being replaced by Favors in the starting lineup. Humphries would likely start along with Brook Lopez, Anthony, Hamilton, and Billups. Since Lopez recently became allergic to rebounds, Humphries’ glass-cleaning skills will be much needed for this would-be Eastern Conference playoff contender.

Ben Gordon – Hamilton would be out and no other guards would be joining the Pistons. Gordon, who replaced Rip in the starting lineup, should see a steady amount of minutes going forward. Gordon’s numbers are way down since coming to Detroit, and some of that has to be attributed to Rip’s presence and the overall cluster-eff they’ve been hosting in their backcourt the last two seasons. This trade would definitely help BG.

Derrick Favors – I’d think the Nuggets would want to get some time under his belt once the trade is made. Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen will still be around but both are battling injuries and I don’t see them playing over Favors for a rebuilding team. Even if he starts, I’d expect him to be wildly inconsistent and would probably only help fantasy teams that are in desperate need of rebounding.

I think it’s time for a game of Buy Low/Sell High, don’t you think? Staying active on the wire will keep you competitive in your league, but a trade has the ability to boost you into contention. I’m going to include more of these as the fantasy trade deadline nears:

BUY LOW

Carmelo Anthony – He’s had a lot of distractions off the court which, undoubtedly, have affected his game. I see him having a huge second half, once the trade is finally made. Among the numbers he will likely improve upon, his 43.3 shooting percentage and 23.7 scoring average.

Brook Lopez – Quite possibly Melo’s newest teammate. I imagine that you’d be able to land Lopez dirt-cheap right now. And, I really don’t think it can get much worse. Maybe this potential blockbuster could be a wake-up call to him and having a superstar in town would take some pressure off. Give it a think.

SELL HIGH

Blake Griffin – Okay, this might sound like crazy talk but hear me out. Basketball Monster has him ranked 96th overall right now. That’s one spot ahead of James Harden and one spot behind Antawn Jamison. Why? His 60 percent free throw average. If you’re punting free throw percentage, forget about this. If not, you should consider seeing what kind of offers you can get for The Poster Child. If you can land a top-tier fantasy player, go for it, because as good as he looks on the highlights, it doesn’t equate to fantasy stardom.

ELSEWHERE ON THE WIRE

DeAndre Jordan – He’s no secret anymore. He and Griffin make quite the high-flying frontcourt tandem. The Clippers have now won seven of their last 10 games. In the last four, Jordan accumulated 43 points, 50 rebounds, and 22 blocks while making 16 of 21 shot attempts. The Clippers have an opportunity to win a playoff berth in the West. It’s not out of the question. If Chris Kaman ever returns, I don’t think they should let it disrupt what they have going on right now. Jordan looks like a guy you can plan on sticking with for the remainder of the season.

Jared Dudley – He’s one of my favorite players. He hustles, he’s efficient, and he appears to be a great teammate. The downside is, he hasn’t been getting enough playing time. In the last three games, however, he’s averaging 36 minutes, along with 17.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, three three-pointers, and one steal while shooting 54.3 percent. I would definitely give Dudley a long look. Not only is he an excellent source of threes, but he’ll provide across the board.

JJ HicksonAnderson Varejao is out for the season and the Cavs have nobody to replace him with other than Ryan Hollins. The Cavs will have little choice but to frequently go with a small lineup, which would be a boost in the development of Hickson. He started at center against the Suns on Sunday and finished with 23 points and 17 rebounds, despite shooting 8 for 23 from the field.

Tyler Hansbrough – Started the last two for the Pacers and is playing well. In his first start he finished with 23 points, 12 rebounds, and two blocks. He has to beat out Josh McRoberts to stay in the starting lineup, which has to be one of the most obtainable goals he’s ever encountered in his life.

Chris Douglas-Roberts – Big minutes in consecutive games for CDR. On Friday, in an overtime loss to the Heat, he finished with 30 points, five rebounds, four blocks, two steals, and two three-pointers. He followed that up with 24 points, four assists, and three steals in New Jersey on Saturday.

Manny Harris – Played major minutes in the Cavaliers’ last two games. He averaged 21.5 points, nine rebounds, three assists, two steals, and 2.5 threes. It should be noted; those numbers were accumulated against the stat-padding Warriors and Suns. I don’t see Harris being valuable for the rest of the season, but he’s a decent short-term option while Daniel Gibson and Anthony Parker get healthy.

Corey Brewer – It’s his turn to start at shooting guard for the T’Wolves. Apparently, he earned the gig with the effort he’s been exhibiting on defense lately. That has to be true because it couldn’t be due to his offense, as he’s shooting 35.9 percent this season. I’d only consider adding if you’re in a very deep league and/or in need of a boost in steals.

Corey Maggette – While we’re discussing Coreys, I might as well mention this one. Scott Skiles’ allotments of playing time have been terribly confusing, enough to land Maggette on the waiver wires of many fantasy leagues. Take a look at his last three games: January 5 – 25 minutes, 21 points, seven rebounds, 6-8 free throws; January 7 – six munutes, two points; January 8 – 28 minutes, 20 points, six rebounds, 10-11 free throws. You have one game where he barely played sandwiched between two very Maggette-ish performances. He can score the ball and get to the line. Lots of teams need players who can do just that. The Bucks have a plethora of SG/SF types and they ought to ship one or two of them out, not only for fantasy purposes but also for… well, yeah… mostly for fantasy purposes.

Let’s tweet about it. @Charles_Peach

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  • http://www.slamonline.com/ niQ

    I love how Brook Lopez has been a Buy Low all season. His value is dirt cheap right now. Yet, (because of all the buy low suggestions from media) the owners are continuously holding for dear life on Lopez. I’ve sent some pretty good offers for Lopez over the course of the first half season. I’m glad they all got rejected. lol

  • http://www.stonesthrow.com Michael NZ

    So many great speculative adds out there IF the trade goes through… I mean, Murphy, Lawson and Gordon are all on the wire – hell, that could turn a season around if the trade(s) opened major minutes for and you picked up one or two of them.

    I doubt whether I could even get DeAndre Jordan for Brook Lopez right now. What a disaster.

    @Charles: reckon Hickson will continue to start or was it simply because they played the Suns? Could have serious value if he does.

  • http://www.stonesthrow.com Michael NZ

    @niQ: I wish someone would offer me damn near ANYONE for Lopez. I’ve been trying to unload him for a month now. No luck.

  • http://www.twitter.com/JoshElam JE

    If the trade goes through, would Aaron Afflalo then lose all value?

  • http://www.slamonline.com/ niQ

    @Michael, I picked up Hickson in one of my leagues. I know he’ll be good for Points and some boards but his blocks is suspect. I’m trying to sell high while I can. No luck yet though, but even if I can’t get anything in return, it’s still not a bad investment since I dropped my worse big man for him (Hawes).

  • http://www.slamonline.com Emry DowningHall

    Hey Mr.Fantasy. Thanks for the advice as always. I’m pretty loaded at points/assists/dimes/steals this season but have missed the boat in the big man department both in the draft and off waivers. I’d like to make a move to sure up some big man friendly categories and own guys like Kevin Martin, Andre Miller, Aaron Brooks, John Salmons – Any ideas who I should target? Is it worth trying to make an offer for Lopez? What about Kaman? Thanks in advance bawse.

  • http://www.twitter.com/JoshElam JE

    @Emry: Are you further behind in blocks or steals? I would suggest determining which category you have the longest shot at winning, and sacrifice it even more. For example, if you’re losing blocks by a close margin, but rebounds are way behind, try making a trade with someone else in your league that also lacks in the rebounds department and try exclusively to gain blocks per game. Or, you know, vice versa. Unfortunately, this might be difficult (but not impossible) considering rebounds and blocks often go hand in hand. I’ve got the same problem with assists and steals right now.

  • http://www.stonesthrow.com Michael NZ

    Mike Conley. What the hell am I to do with Mike Conley?

  • http://slamonline.com niQ

    Emry. Try to sell high on Kevin Martin while you still can. His points and FT% are attractive to most owners. Try to find a manager who’s losing in FT% and tell them that the amount of FT’s that KMart takes will help him win FT% cats. Based on some recent buy lows, you could target people like Hibbert. You could also try to add Salmons to a deal to see what else you can get. Brooks when healthy is definitely a keeper. Don’t bother with Kaman by the way… Actually, try to package Kevin Martin and Salmons(or Miller) for Gerald Wallace straight up. With his injury he’s definitely a buy low right now.

  • http://slamonline.com niQ

    ^you could probably get G.Wall and someone else for a 2 for 2. Other big men you should try for would be Nene, Bosh, Milsap, Noah (if you can wait), Scola, or David Lee.

  • http://staticseth.blogspot.com Seth

    I’m taking a chance on Troy Murphy. Avery Johnson must hate the guy or something to not get any minutes in Jersey. I’m hoping he flourishes in Detroit for my sake.

    _

    I’m also going to take a chance on buying low on Carmelo, although I’m sure his owner is going to be thinking, “No way, Melo’s gonna light it up in New Jersey.”

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @Michael NZ: I like Lawson the most of that bunch and you should consider adding him. Who are the worst guys on your roster?
    Hickson should get some major burn the rest of the way. He’s not a great rebounder but they can’t find much better on that roster.
    Mike Conley is aight. Don’t expect too much. 13 & 7 is pretty solid, plus his fg% is decent.
    -
    @JE: Afflalo is playing at a high level, I don’t expect him to lose value. In fact, he could benefit from the departure of Melo.
    -
    @Emry: Stay away from Kaman. I would definitely see what you would have to give up to get B. Lopez. I agree with niQ about guys to target; Noah & David Lee could be nice bargains right now. Of your players you mentione, I might try to move Brooks if I could get a nice big man in return. Brooks for Lee?
    -
    @Seth: I think that’s a good call on Murphy. There isn’t much out there on the wire. Troy appears to be healthy so I think the risk is worth the possible reward.

  • http://staticseth.blogspot.com Seth

    What’s the deal with Mo Williams’ awful percentages/production? I mean I expected his numbers to rise but with lower percentages, but wow. Do I wait on him to bounce back, or are the Cavs that awful that I need to trade him for 50 cents on the dollar?

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @Seth: I’d try to ship Mo. If he has a few hot games try to sell high. Maybe somebody in your league who’s desperate for assists will be willing to take him.

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