Monday, January 17th, 2011 at 1:08 pm  |  17 responses

Fantasy Basketball, Week 13

MLK Day: A full day to find the next best pickup.

by Charles Peach / @Charles_Peach

Happy MLK Day! I hope that you’re able to enjoy as much NBA as you can handle today. I’ll be scouring the games throughout the day and searching for injury updates as they happen. If you have any questions, comments, or want an opinion on a trade, I’m happy to lend a helping tweet.

In this week’s waiver wire section, I excluded two players who were recently picked up (by me) in my leagues. To my surprise, Richard Hamilton was let go over the weekend in one league, and Tayshaun Prince was dropped in another. Even harder to believe, both cleared waivers without a peep. So, this morning I swapped Linas Kleiza for Rip and Kenyon Martin for Tay, and I couldn’t be happier about it.

Grizzlies Pistons Basketball

In Rip’s case, I can understand. He’s benched, unhappy, and needs a trade to become useful again. But, I’m willing to take that chance. A lot of teams could use the services of a champion like Rip. The situation in Detroit is miserable, and more specifically, the lineup shuffling has been similar to the Red Wings. I’m the first to agree that you shouldn’t count on a trade, but with trades needing to take place within the next month I feel like Rip is worth stashing.

As for Prince, I think the owner would agree he made a blunder. He got sucked in by T-Mac and cut Prince in the process. What happens next? T-Mac leaves 10 minutes into his next game and doesn’t return. Now, I’ll agree, McGrady’s been tantalizing lately. I own him in two leagues, but only because I had some spare parts that I could do without. Prince is reliable and efficient, the exact opposite of T-Mac.

Last week, I advised you to buy low on Brook Lopez and Carmelo Anthony. Although Lopez’s rebounding is still non-existent, he showed life on the offensive end last week. In his last two games he finished with a combined 67 points, shooting 25-38 from the field and 17-19 from the stripe. After those performances his stock is much higher than last week. Anthony’s stock, on the other hand, is still lower than usual. He turned in back-to-back, 12-point games last week and he’s shooting 43.3 percent on the season. I expect him to have a much better 2nd half to the season, whether it’s with the Nuggets or not. Here’s this week’s Buy Low/Sell High:

BUY LOW

Gerald Wallace – Most of his numbers are down from last season, some more than others. His rebounding has fallen from 10 per game to 7.9, and his shooting is down from 48.4 to 42.4 percent. He’s battled a few injuries this season, most recently a severely sprained ankle. After sitting nine of the previous 11 games, he’s played the last three for the Bobcats and played over 40 minutes in each. Expect a stronger 2nd half to the season for Wallace, and consider making his owner an offer.

SELL HIGH

Lamar Odom – Though it’s been a month since Andrew Bynum made his season debut, Odom has maintained solid averages despite the reduction in minutes. However, now that Bynum is starting to find his groove I think you will begin to see Odom’s numbers take a hit. LO is enjoying, arguably, the best season of his career. He’s shooting a career-high, 56.6 percent from the field, and averaging 15.4 points per game, which is his best rate since the 06-07 season.

ON THE WIRE

Greg Monroe – In the last six games, he’s averaging 12.8 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.3 steals while shooting 58.8 percent. Unfortunately, it’s doubtful that this will continue because Ben Wallace is expected to return soon from the ankle injury that gave Monroe the opportunity in the first place. Keep an eye on Monroe’s minutes once Big Ben returns, though it’s likely that he won’t be given enough playing time to continue his fantasy relevance.

Ramon Sessions – The Cavs have lost their last three games by an average of 35 points so there’s been plenty of opportunity for Sessions lately. Also, Mo Williams left the last game with a hip flexor injury and mentioned that he might need to “shut it down” for a while. His fantasy owners would argue that he shut it down a long time ago. Regardless, Sessions has been seeing more playing time and producing solid numbers for nearly three weeks. If Williams misses an extended amount of time, then this pickup could really pay off.

Mike Miller – He’s logged significant minutes for the first time this season, due mostly to the absence of LeBron James. Miller hit his first three-pointers of the year against Chicago on Saturday. If he stays healthy and can give the Heat 20-25 minutes per game he could become a solid fantasy asset. The Big Three should create a lot of wide-open threes for Miller and he can knock them down consistently. He sunk 48 percent from behind the arch last season.

Lou Williams – Lou gets buckets. Doug Collins will often rely on him in the 4th quarter to do just that. He’s in the midst of his best streak of the season, averaging 19.4 points in the last five games. He’s off to a rough start this season, shooting only 38.6 percent. However, he shot 47 percent last season, so I expect him to pick it up the rest of the way. He gets to the line a lot and makes 81.2 percent of his free throws (as long as they aren’t against the Pistons to ensure victory).

Drewsan Goodyasova – ESPN’s Bill Simmons introduced the idea of drafting two teammates who play the same position in fantasy football but having it count as only one player (think LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene). That’s the power forward situation in Milwaukee right now. Each could be a significant fantasy asset if it weren’t for the other one holding them back. One day it looks like Ersan Ilyasova is the better of the two to own, the next day it’s Drew Gooden. Meanwhile, we scratch our heads and pass around the players on the waiver wire all season when all we really want is Drewsan Goodyasova.

Ryan Anderson – Averaging 11.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 2.2 threes over the last 12 games. Brandon Bass is the starting power forward but Anderson has been getting nearly the same amount of burn lately. Of course, I’d prefer to own Ryndon Bassderson, but since I can’t I’d take Anderson over Bass because of the threes.

Kwame Brown – This one’s for all y’all in deep leagues, strugglin’, searching for something out there on that waiver wire! Maybe Kwame can provide you with some relief. In his last seven games, he’s averaging 8.6 points and 8.1 rebounds.

Anthony Randolph – ESPN’s Chris Broussard reports that Randolph could be traded within the next two weeks. He’s in the free agent pools of many leagues at the moment. Will this guy ever fulfill his potential? Well, if he doesn’t play then we’ll never know, and he isn’t playing for the Knicks. In deep leagues, he’s definitely worth a stash. Otherwise, I’d probably wait until the trade is actually made to make my mad dash to the computer.

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  • http://staticseth.blogspot.com Seth

    I tried to move Mo Williams and one of the responses I got was “Mo is pathetic.” I then grabbed Ramon Sessions while he was still available and I think he’ll be great while Mo is hurt (physically AND emotionally), but Sessions needs to shoot the three!

  • http://staticseth.blogspot.com Seth

    Also, with all the Carmelo hoopla going on, what do you think of this trade that was proposed to me? I get: Carmelo, Antawn Jamison, Amir Johnson. Other guy gets: Rudy Gay, Glen Davis, Troy Murphy. I stashed Murphy and the other guy’s got the same idea that he might break out with another team this season.

  • http://www.slamonline.com/ niQ

    Seth, I actually like that trade. But you might want to get some more insight from other commenters before you pull the trigger.

  • http://www.stonesthrow.com Michael NZ

    I can’t for the life of me figure out this obsession with Mike Miller. Dudes drafted him – injured – and held on ALL THIS TIME by saying when he comes back it’ll be worth it. Uh, no. Why forgo having a player give you stats all these weeks for a slim chance at (minimal) payoff. And about that payoff… there won’t be any! There’s no chance whatsoever at more than 20 minutes per game. More likely to be 15. And for what? Best case: 8 points, 1 three, 3 boards, 1 assist, 50 fg% on low attempts. There’s 20 guys more productive on the wires. Ok rant over, but yeah.

    I tried moving Odom last week, other owners too savvy to take the bait, but he’s actually been solid off the bench – so far.

    Prince is a great waiver wire pick up Charles.

    Also, I just couldn’t stand Mike Conley anymore. Cut him. Has not been picked up since. Has been horrible for weeks now. Good riddance.

    @Seth: do it.

  • http://thephotoriot.com davidR

    who do you guys think will hold more value as the season wears on? james harden, or louis williams? both tend to be streaky shooters, can hit the 3, and have good ft%, but williams racks up more assists while harden grabs a lot more steals

  • http://www.slamonline.com/ niQ

    davidR. You basically summed it up yourself. Lou=more assists. and Harden more steals. Although I give a SLIGHT advantage for Lou for the high volume of FT’s he takes. Which helps you if you’re bad at FT%.

  • http://nicekicks.com Meloman2.0

    i am constantly getting offered Roy Hibbert for aaron brooks… what do u guys think

  • http://slamonline.com niQ

    Meloman. Do you need Hibbert? Brooks should be good for somewhere around 19 and 5 and 2 threes when his minutes are more stable. Hibbert seems to be on some horrible slump right now. This could possibly be the worse time to try and sell Hibbert. He’s definitely a buy low. No, don’t take it. You can get him for MUCH less, especially right now.

  • http://nicekicks.com Meloman2.0

    no i dont need him… but brooks has been a headache all season so i was wondering if i shud gve up on him. Thanks though

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles_Peach

    @Seth: I wouldn’t count on Sessions to hit threes. He’s only hit 10 in 217 career games.
    I think you win that trade, though Gay is having a great season.
    -
    @Michael NZ: Yes, Mike Miller’s been disappointing thus far. However, he has the ability to put up very solid, efficient fantasy numbers with the Heat. Keep your eye on him.
    -
    @davidR: Lou W.
    -
    @niQ: I’d keep Brooks. I know he’s been frustrating since returning from injury, but he’s a better bet than Hibbert right now.

  • Hursty

    Offered Salmons and Duncan for Baron and McGee today. ROTO League. Thoughts?

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles_Peach

    @Hursty: Pretty fair deal, though I slightly prefer the Salmons/Duncan side.

  • http://www.slamonline.com/ niQ

    BTW Charles: In regards to Anthony Randolph. Man, if he wasn’t able to flourish in GS or NY, I find it hard to believe he’ll break out anywhere else..But that’s just me.

  • http://www.stonesthrow.com Michael NZ

    Agree with you niQ. Also the fact that Nelson and D’Antoni allow a bit of leeway with their guys… what happens if the coach was more of a taskmaster type in a slower system, like say, Portland?

    @Hursty: yeah thats fairly even. Winner of that trade will be decided by which of those players simply plays better in the second half of the season. Baron has really picked things up and McGee figures to keep his PT too.

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    I agree with you guys, he’s a wild card. However, he’s also 21 years old, so he still has time to “get it”. It’s a longshot that he figures it out this season, but worth keeping an eye on because he’s so talented.

  • Waters

    Right now, I have Francisco Garcia, Troy Murphy, Marcus Camby & Rip Hamilton on my team. I am in 3rd place and the next few weeks I am against people who are right around my position – 4th, 5th, 8th, he is a tough matchup and 10th in a 10 team league. How long would you keep those players? I figure I am keeping Camby since he will be back in 4 or so weeks, and probably Garcia since he only has another 2 to 3 weeks. But how long would you hold onto Murphy and Hamilton? I know what they can do, but I also know what they are giving me right now. Thoughts?

  • http://www.slamonline.com Charles Peach

    @Waters: I wouldn’t hang on to Garcia unless I was in a 14/16 team league. Definitely wait on Camby. I’d take the risk on Murphy & Hamilton. It’s something that could pay off at the end of the season. Use the Garcia spot to pick up somebody hot off the wire.

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