Wednesday, January 12th, 2011 at 3:09 pm  |  32 responses

Superhuman?

Blake Griffin struggles to sustain dominance throughout games.

by Loren Lee Chen / @The_Real_LLC and Aaron Fischman / @Aaronhartf

Did he just do what I think he did?

Blake Griffin has performed unbelievable feats in his inaugural season in the NBA. The 21-year-old power forward’s game exudes a style unparalleled by anyone in the Association. The aforementioned statement is quite evident even though the young man has merely played 36 games into his NBA career.Blake Griffin

He truly is one of a kind.

Still, where the high-flyer showcases style and flare, he backs it up with substance. Griffin currently finds himself third in the League in rebounding and top 15 in scoring. Even more impressive, Griffin has recorded 23 consecutive double-doubles. By his standards, Griffin has only had seven “off games,” where he did not achieve a double-double. Along with 22-year-old Eric Gordon, he is carrying a young, depleted Clippers’ team, on his broad, muscular shoulders.

Griffin plays a specific brand of basketball that leaves coaches drooling. Pardon the cliché, but he always gives 100 percent. Unfortunately, that quality has occasionally gotten Griffin into serious trouble. For instance, he was forced to miss the entire ‘09-10 NBA season when he injured his kneecap on a ferocious dunk during the preseason. Whether it’s exhibition or the real thing, this guy will go all out.

Not surprisingly, this mindset has made him the dominant player he is today. Griffin’s enthusiastic play has produced dozens of viral videos to the point that he is recognized by casual NBA fans, as well. More importantly, his extraordinary will to win and “never-take-a-play off” approach is contagious. Although the Clippers find themselves near the bottom of the Western Conference, the squad has won seven of its last 10. Plus, Griffin scores nearly 24 points per game on 60 percent shooting in Clipper victories. In wins, he grabs over 13 boards per contest. In a sense, it appears as though Blake Griffin has the ability to will his team to win.

Unfortunately, there is a costly drawback to the 6-10 forward’s style of play.

He tires himself out.

The former Oklahoma Sooner dominates the first quarter on a regular basis, only to see his performance decline the remainder of the game. Of course, we realize that Blake Griffin’s not as impressive second through fourth quarters are better than most guys’ usual efforts. Still, Griffin’s post-first quarter decline is still a very tangible problem.

The impressive rookie scores 37 percent of his points in the first quarter. After that first period, his offensive output decreases drastically. Take a look:

Blake Griffin, Fig. 1

One might argue that Griffin scores so many points in the first quarter because he plays a great deal of minutes early in games. Here, we control for that by calculating the points Griffin scores per minute played (in each quarter). In other words, we are measuring scoring rate, irrespective of the big man’s playing time per quarter. Again, his first quarter performance dominates relative to the other three quarters. Griffin is the weakest, according to this measure, in the third quarter of games. We graph his quarterly performance below:

Blake Griffin, Fig. 2

Below, we see once again that Griffin performs the best in the first quarter when his legs are most fresh. Although Griffin’s shooting percentage increases from the third to fourth quarter, it never comes anywhere close to its first quarter level. Observe:

Blake Griffin, Fig. 3.1

The way Blake Griffin soars through the air, one could easily assume that he possesses an infinite supply of energy; that the laws of gravity and fatigue do not apply to this godlike figure. Such thinking is clearly misguided. He is human like the rest of us, as evidenced by the aforementioned data.

One obvious reason for Griffin’s offensive decline through the progression of games is his energetic style of play. He puts a great deal of energy into his acrobatic slam dunks, and many people forget that he also brings the ball up the floor from time to time. In addition, Griffin plays a whole lot of minutes. He logs the most minutes of any rookie at a clip of 37.1 minutes per game (John Wall is second with 36.3). In fact, only three rookies including Griffin even play over 30 minutes per night (Landry Fields of the Knicks is the third).

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  • Drew Posted: Jan.12 at 3:16 pm
    He’s a young rookie. He’ll eventually learn how to manage his energy throughout the whole game.

  • reald1 Posted: Jan.12 at 3:16 pm
    he has other teamates,so he is able to chill ,eric gordan leads the league in second half scoring.

  • nicko Posted: Jan.12 at 3:23 pm
    stupid article. the only stat line that matters is the one at the end of the game. idiots.

  • nicko Posted: Jan.12 at 3:24 pm
    trade for shaq.

  • Tupack Shackur Posted: Jan.12 at 3:27 pm
    Wouldn’t you expect to see a spike in the third quarter then, after having a break? Why is the third quarter his lowest-scoring quarter? I’m a fan of this kind of analysis, but the conclusion that fatigue is really the issue, and not, say, defensive adjustments or an offensive shift, is kinda BS.

  • Isaac Posted: Jan.12 at 3:27 pm
    you should take in to account that after griffin murders a team in the first half, they usually send the double team at him in the second..

  • kwam Posted: Jan.12 at 3:45 pm
    hes a rookie

  • riggs Posted: Jan.12 at 3:52 pm
    great article just for the use of charts, we need more statistical analyzing in slamdome. Also i agree with some other views, its due to eric gordon and others taking over in the second half. That’s when blake begins to screen and pass the ball.

  • onlyclipsfanonslam Posted: Jan.12 at 3:59 pm
    1. it was a preseason dunk
    2. Eric Gordon’s scoring goes up in the second half of games. Coincidence? I think not

  • Aaron Posted: Jan.12 at 5:17 pm
    Nicko, fourth quarter stats are definitely not the only stat line that matters. Without Blake Griffin’s contributions, the Clippers would be nowhere, as mentioned in the 2nd page. Still, the Clippers have blown so many late leads, as noted in page 2. Blake’s supporting cast doesn’t finish. We’re not blaming Blake. OnlyClipsFan, that is correct. Sorry for the error. To address your second point, we never claimed it was a coincidence. Again, I’m in complete agreement with you. Thanks for reading.

  • logues Posted: Jan.12 at 5:25 pm
    way too much time on ur hands

  • Allenp Posted: Jan.12 at 5:28 pm
    good stats. what about his rebounds?
    I would wonder if teams figure out better how to defend him as the game goes on, particularly if his rebounds are consistent all game.
    But, if his boards and points drop off, then I think this is a very strong point.

  • Aaron Posted: Jan.12 at 5:36 pm
    Good question. The rebounding is actually very stable throughout, but Blake does become less aggressive offensively. He dunks less often later in games and loses his mid-range effectiveness.

  • Aaron Posted: Jan.12 at 5:37 pm
    riggs…only Gordon takes over in the 2nd half. That’s the problem (see the graph on pg. 2).

  • cris Posted: Jan.12 at 5:47 pm
    If you’ve ever watched a Clippers game… blake is doubled in the second half and teams do whatever they can to keep the ball out of his hands in the 4th. 4th quarter is Eric Gordon time. Wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon leads the league in 4th quarter scoring. Has nothing to do with energy or fatigue. Defenses lock up in the 4th, especially in tight games which is what the Clips play in every night.

  • JJ Posted: Jan.12 at 5:52 pm
    Cool article! Love the combination of informative statistical analysis and exciting figurative metaphorical language (i.e. “carries the team on his broad muscular shoulders” and the last sentence about him touching the ceiling at Staples multiple time during games). Agree with most of the points and would like to see more articles like this on Slam

  • Allenp Posted: Jan.12 at 5:55 pm
    If the rebounds are still the same, then it’s probably not a fatigue issue. It’s more likely a technique issue and teams adjusting to how athletic he is and taking away his sweet spots. That’s what I would guess.

  • Al Posted: Jan.12 at 6:12 pm
    Look, yes teams do send the double team to Griffin during the 2nd half (same thing they do to Kaman), yes eric gordon takes over during the 2nd half. Those we can agree on but if you guys watch closely, Blake Griffin do get tired, most of the time during the 2nd half you can see him jogging back down the court, this is all because of Vinny Del Negro’s horrible time management of Griffin’s minutes. There were instances where Blake would the whole 3rd Q and a few minutes in to the 4th then Rest him around the 8 minute mark only to bring him back late in 4-5 minute mark.

  • doyouwantmore Posted: Jan.12 at 6:31 pm
    ‘Godlike’ figure? His ‘broad muscular shoulders’? LOL

  • Aaron Posted: Jan.12 at 6:31 pm
    @cris (Loren and I have been to a number of games. Just because we see things differently than you does not mean we don’t watch.) And teams don’t double him in the first quarter?

  • Aaron Posted: Jan.12 at 6:35 pm
    @Allen This is a good discussion to have, but I disagree. Rebounding is about so much more than lift. Blake has great positioning and boxing out skills even when tires. He just has a nose for the basketball. Plus, a tired Blake is still a higher jumper than most normal players. One can have tired legs (which adversely affect jumpshooting) and not get as much lift on slam dunks, but not see a drop-off in their rebounding. Like everything though, one reason never answers a complete phenomenon. Of course, teams pay special attention to Blake in the 4th. We’re not precluding that, but what we are saying is that fatigue is another very important factor. It’s crucial.

  • Harut Topchyan Posted: Jan.12 at 6:47 pm
    Everyone read the whole article!
    It’s two pages and it will answer all your questions
    Very interesting
    Well written!

  • m Posted: Jan.12 at 9:18 pm
    why don’t they just rest him for longer in the 3rd?

  • ross z Posted: Jan.12 at 11:30 pm
    Excellent article! Unfortunately for the clippers exhausting griffin is the only way to put butts in the seats, and still the continue to struggle with attendance. Griffin has brought a new life to the clippers team, along with drew gordon, but one man cannot change a franchise, as proven by this article. Aaron and Loren! Great job and great use of stats! It was clearly explained and interesting.

  • Karl Posted: Jan.13 at 6:08 am
    Wait… why do they need to adjust in the second half? Shouldn’t they have gathered enough pre-game data to prevent him from his points early in the game? How much does Blake actually touch the ball in the second half?

  • Morgan Posted: Jan.13 at 7:31 am
    Good article but not evenly weighted, you have lacked measurements of defensive shifts and rebounds (mentioned above). Otherwise a great read – I’m stuck looking at graphs of crap all day (stupid work) and its nice to see a Graph I actually have an interest in. Keep it up!

  • Mike from Spain Posted: Jan.13 at 8:25 am
    Based on this I’d rest him a little more at the beginning of the 2nd quarter, then rest him again a little at the end of the 3rd… I’d like to see Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon, Baron Davis and Chris Kaman playing together, Deandre Jordan and Bledsoe off the bench…great team. Who would be the 5th man?

  • Clint Peterson Posted: Jan.13 at 10:42 am
    Love this! Nice work, fellas. It so happens that I’ve been doing similar research on Griffin (yes, with charts too) and came to many of the same conclusions. I’ll be able to expound a bit on this nice piece now, fill in some of the holes. Coming soon. Hope to see more of this type of outstanding collaboration from Loren and Aaron in the future.

  • Sizzle Posted: Jan.13 at 11:04 am
    Great player, enormous potential. Right now though he is getting by mostly off athletic ability. He needs to learn more moves in the post besides the back down spin move/dribble into back down then he already has.

  • joeclipper fan Posted: Jan.13 at 1:10 pm
    As a 25 year LA Clippers’ season ticket holder, I read this well researched and excellently written article with both hope and fear. I fully agree with all the points in the article and disagree with the comments from those that did not fully read it. Blake is a superb athlete and the most spirited leader to a young unproven team, since Larry Bird. He is the center and hope of the future for the Clippers. He must be on the court as much as possible, but proper substitutions and rest are vital. We all hope that a proper balance can be achieved, so that this “shining light” does not dim before the Clippers reach the NBA elite.

  • Brian Posted: Jan.19 at 1:43 am
    Wow joeclipper, a 25year season ticket holder? You must be the most patient man in the world.

  • dave rosa Posted: Feb.1 at 10:49 pm
    “the griffin”, half lion, half eagle, will be posterizing an arena near you….blake griffin is the superstar that we in clipper nation have been waiting for…these young clips, led by the “G-men”, griffin and gordon, will be playing for championships.

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