Wednesday, January 12th, 2011 at 3:09 pm  |  32 responses

Superhuman?

Blake Griffin struggles to sustain dominance throughout games.

In addition, no center plays more than Blake Griffin and only four power forwards log more minutes than the 6-10 Clipper. Of those four power forwards who are slightly ahead of Griffin in minutes played, only Amar’e Stoudemire comes close to playing such a physically taxing game. The others, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jeff Green and Pau Gasol are more finesse players, so they can afford to log more minutes (Gasol being the most physical, but still a lot less than Griffin and Stoudemire).

Finally, all minutes are not created equal. Because of Griffin’s aggressive play, he attempts 8.4 free-throws per game, ranking seventh in the League in trips to the charity stripe. Oftentimes, opponents foul violently in order to avoid appearing on the latest Blake Griffin poster or worse…the most recent viral video. A Blake jam is more than just two points against one’s team; it is commonly taken as a blow to one’s pride, though it need not be. Getting dunked on by Griffin has become exceedingly difficult to avoid. But anyway, such hard fouls incurred at great regularity, really take a toll on Griffin and can partially explain why his offensive numbers decline over the course of a game.

Thankfully for Blake Griffin and the Clippers, there’s another star player on the team: Eric Gordon, who turned 22 this past Christmas, carries a sizable portion of the Clips’ scoring load at a clip of 23.5 per game. The undersized two-guard out of Indiana was good last season, but he really came of age during the 2010 FIBA World Championships. Gordon (a.k.a. EJ), a notoriously slow starter, happens to perform the best when the rest of his team struggles most. Seemingly the antithesis of Griffin, Gordon’s shooting percentage actually skyrockets in the fourth quarter compared to earlier in the game.

Blake Griffin Fig. 5.1

The difference between the Clippers’ two stars can be further illustrated by examining their point per minute output by quarter, side by side. Below we see that their respective scoring paths take nearly opposite trajectories. Unlike Griffin, who performs best early on, Gordon’s output increases steadily as the game progresses.

Blake Griffin Fig. 6

Griffin and Gordon score a combined 46.4 percent of their team’s points, yet they have only lived on this planet for a combined 43 years. And we saw above that in the quarters where one struggles (relatively speaking, of course), the other more than picks up the slack. In this sense, the two are a perfect tandem, complementing each other like few other teammates in this league. But, as we all know, basketball is not only played with two players.

Blake Griffin Fig. 7.1

Though Eric Gordon performs spectacularly at the end of games, it doesn’t make up for the fact that every single one of the Clippers’ top six scorers after Griffin and Gordon sees his shooting percentage take a precipitous dive in the fourth quarter compared to the rest of the game. When this is taken into consideration, it is no wonder why the Clippers have already blown five third quarter leads in this young season. On top of that, they have already failed to hold on to three halftime leads to the comeback happy Utah Jazz, let slip a six-point advantage going into the fourth quarter against the in-house rival Lakers, and managed to turn an 11-point halftime lead into a nine-point loss to the high-flying Hawks.

To conclude, we are in no way, shape, or form, blaming Blake Griffin for the Clippers’ early struggles. First of all, the Clippers are still owned by inept Donald Sterling. Secondly (and related to the first reason), the team possesses a history and culture of losing. With time, they can turn it around, but for so many years the “other Staples Center inhabitants” as they’ve come to be known, have seemingly accepted losing as natural. Well, Blake Griffin has started to change this mindset. This guy wants to win badly. Every single fourth quarter meltdown eats away at Griffin, who was visibly upset after their one-point loss to the Lakers, for example.

While our statistics show that Griffin’s offensive output sharply declines after the first quarter, this team would be nowhere without him. Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon are essentially the gas that fuels this team. Rookies Eric Bledsoe and Al-Farouq Aminu have shown flashes of potential, but they are especially prone to mistakes due to inexperience. Baron Davis is a shell of his former self despite the fact that he can still connect on the alley-oop (though it’s not too hard when high-flyers Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are the recipients). Chris Kaman is always injured, and Rasual Butler and Ryan Gomes are extremely inconsistent.

What we are saying is that there is an extraordinary amount of pressure placed on these two players (Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon), who are 21 and 22 years old, respectively. While it is true that Blake Griffin needs to find a way to parlay his strong offense into the second half, he is merely a rookie and it’s not completely fair to set expectations that are through the roof…even if he seems to touch the Staples Center roof multiple times every home game.

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  • Drew

    He’s a young rookie. He’ll eventually learn how to manage his energy throughout the whole game.

  • reald1

    he has other teamates,so he is able to chill ,eric gordan leads the league in second half scoring.

  • nicko

    stupid article. the only stat line that matters is the one at the end of the game. idiots.

  • nicko

    trade for shaq.

  • Tupack Shackur

    Wouldn’t you expect to see a spike in the third quarter then, after having a break? Why is the third quarter his lowest-scoring quarter? I’m a fan of this kind of analysis, but the conclusion that fatigue is really the issue, and not, say, defensive adjustments or an offensive shift, is kinda BS.

  • Isaac

    you should take in to account that after griffin murders a team in the first half, they usually send the double team at him in the second..

  • kwam

    hes a rookie

  • riggs

    great article just for the use of charts, we need more statistical analyzing in slamdome. Also i agree with some other views, its due to eric gordon and others taking over in the second half. That’s when blake begins to screen and pass the ball.

  • onlyclipsfanonslam

    1. it was a preseason dunk
    2. Eric Gordon’s scoring goes up in the second half of games. Coincidence? I think not

  • Aaron

    Nicko, fourth quarter stats are definitely not the only stat line that matters. Without Blake Griffin’s contributions, the Clippers would be nowhere, as mentioned in the 2nd page. Still, the Clippers have blown so many late leads, as noted in page 2. Blake’s supporting cast doesn’t finish. We’re not blaming Blake.

    OnlyClipsFan, that is correct. Sorry for the error. To address your second point, we never claimed it was a coincidence. Again, I’m in complete agreement with you. Thanks for reading.

  • logues

    way too much time on ur hands

  • http://slamonline.com Allenp

    good stats. what about his rebounds?
    I would wonder if teams figure out better how to defend him as the game goes on, particularly if his rebounds are consistent all game.
    But, if his boards and points drop off, then I think this is a very strong point.

  • Aaron

    Good question. The rebounding is actually very stable throughout, but Blake does become less aggressive offensively. He dunks less often later in games and loses his mid-range effectiveness.

  • Aaron

    riggs…only Gordon takes over in the 2nd half. That’s the problem (see the graph on pg. 2).

  • cris

    If you’ve ever watched a Clippers game… blake is doubled in the second half and teams do whatever they can to keep the ball out of his hands in the 4th.

    4th quarter is Eric Gordon time. Wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon leads the league in 4th quarter scoring.

    Has nothing to do with energy or fatigue. Defenses lock up in the 4th, especially in tight games which is what the Clips play in every night.

  • JJ

    Cool article! Love the combination of informative statistical analysis and exciting figurative metaphorical language (i.e. “carries the team on his broad muscular shoulders” and the last sentence about him touching the ceiling at Staples multiple time during games). Agree with most of the points and would like to see more articles like this on Slam

  • http://slamonline.com Allenp

    If the rebounds are still the same, then it’s probably not a fatigue issue. It’s more likely a technique issue and teams adjusting to how athletic he is and taking away his sweet spots. That’s what I would guess.

  • Al

    Look, yes teams do send the double team to Griffin during the 2nd half (same thing they do to Kaman), yes eric gordon takes over during the 2nd half. Those we can agree on but if you guys watch closely, Blake Griffin do get tired, most of the time during the 2nd half you can see him jogging back down the court, this is all because of Vinny Del Negro’s horrible time management of Griffin’s minutes. There were instances where Blake would the whole 3rd Q and a few minutes in to the 4th then Rest him around the 8 minute mark only to bring him back late in 4-5 minute mark.

  • doyouwantmore

    ‘Godlike’ figure? His ‘broad muscular shoulders’? LOL

  • Aaron

    @cris (Loren and I have been to a number of games. Just because we see things differently than you does not mean we don’t watch.) And teams don’t double him in the first quarter?

  • Aaron

    @Allen This is a good discussion to have, but I disagree. Rebounding is about so much more than lift. Blake has great positioning and boxing out skills even when tires. He just has a nose for the basketball. Plus, a tired Blake is still a higher jumper than most normal players.

    One can have tired legs (which adversely affect jumpshooting) and not get as much lift on slam dunks, but not see a drop-off in their rebounding. Like everything though, one reason never answers a complete phenomenon. Of course, teams pay special attention to Blake in the 4th. We’re not precluding that, but what we are saying is that fatigue is another very important factor. It’s crucial.

  • Harut Topchyan

    Everyone read the whole article!
    It’s two pages and it will answer all your questions
    Very interesting
    Well written!

  • m

    why don’t they just rest him for longer in the 3rd?

  • ross z

    Excellent article! Unfortunately for the clippers exhausting griffin is the only way to put butts in the seats, and still the continue to struggle with attendance. Griffin has brought a new life to the clippers team, along with drew gordon, but one man cannot change a franchise, as proven by this article.

    Aaron and Loren! Great job and great use of stats! It was clearly explained and interesting.

  • Karl

    Wait… why do they need to adjust in the second half? Shouldn’t they have gathered enough pre-game data to prevent him from his points early in the game? How much does Blake actually touch the ball in the second half?

  • Morgan

    Good article but not evenly weighted, you have lacked measurements of defensive shifts and rebounds (mentioned above). Otherwise a great read – I’m stuck looking at graphs of crap all day (stupid work) and its nice to see a Graph I actually have an interest in. Keep it up!

  • Mike from Spain

    Based on this I’d rest him a little more at the beginning of the 2nd quarter, then rest him again a little at the end of the 3rd…

    I’d like to see Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon, Baron Davis and Chris Kaman playing together, Deandre Jordan and Bledsoe off the bench…great team. Who would be the 5th man?

  • http://shoothoops.com Clint Peterson

    Love this! Nice work, fellas. It so happens that I’ve been doing similar research on Griffin (yes, with charts too) and came to many of the same conclusions. I’ll be able to expound a bit on this nice piece now, fill in some of the holes. Coming soon. Hope to see more of this type of outstanding collaboration from Loren and Aaron in the future.

  • Sizzle

    Great player, enormous potential. Right now though he is getting by mostly off athletic ability. He needs to learn more moves in the post besides the back down spin move/dribble into back down then he already has.

  • joeclipper fan

    As a 25 year LA Clippers’ season ticket holder, I read this well researched and excellently written article with both hope and fear. I fully agree with all the points in the article and disagree with the comments from those that did not fully read it. Blake is a superb athlete and the most spirited leader to a young unproven team, since Larry Bird. He is the center and hope of the future for the Clippers. He must be on the court as much as possible, but proper substitutions and rest are vital. We all hope that a proper balance can be achieved, so that this “shining light” does not dim before the Clippers reach the NBA elite.

  • Brian

    Wow joeclipper, a 25year season ticket holder? You must be the most patient man in the world.

  • http://www.flatfeetaxservice.com dave rosa

    “the griffin”, half lion, half eagle, will be posterizing an arena near you….blake griffin is the superstar that we in clipper nation have been waiting for…these young clips, led by the “G-men”, griffin and gordon, will be playing for championships.

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