Monday, January 30th, 2012 at 11:15 am  |  14 responses

Fantasy Basketball: The Unsung MVP Candidates

These players can probably be found on the 1st place team in your league.

by Charles Peach | @Charles_Peach

With one-third of this crazy, truncated season in the books, let me take a minute to give props to a few players whose fantasy output thus far has been a pleasant surprise:

Brandon Jennings – I have to admit that I’d sworn him off before this season. What good was assembling a team that shoots the ball efficiently if you’re going to add a guy that shoots 5 for 16 every night? He’d bring down your whole squad. Well, Jennings hasn’t been that guy this season. Through 19 games, he’s shooting 44.1 percent from the field, up from 39 percent last season. One would guess that’s a result of him shooting less threes, as he jacked up 4.8 per game last season. That’s not the case—he’s shooting even more this season, 6.1 per game! His scoring average is up to 20 points per game to go along with 5.5 assists, 2.2 threes, and 1.6 steals. Then you add in the modest turnover rate (2.3 per game) and you have yourself a Top 15 fantasy player. Good to see Young Money shed the sub-40 field goal clip and play like an All-Star. He deserves to be there this year. While we’re here, make sure Drew Gooden is not a free agent in your league.

Paul Millsap – When will he stop being overlooked? I’m just as guilty as the next guy, but, seriously… come on. Millsap is one of the most efficient and reliable players in the league. He’s also playing like an All-Star but will most likely get no love. His numbers do all the talking, look at them and try not to smile: 17 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 53 FG percent, 77 FT percent, and 1.3 turnovers. Does your league count turnovers? I hope it does, and even if it doesn’t, I think you can appreciate that beautifully low turnover rate. Take a moment to compare it to some other forwards; LeBron – 4, Durant – 3.9, Carmelo – 3.2, Blake – 3, Amar’e – 3. Those guys draw all the attention, but it’s guys like Millsap who win fantasy leagues. He puts up solid production across the board without killing you in any category. If you were smart enough to steal him in the middle rounds of your draft, pat yourself on the back.

Danilo Gallinari – Whoops. Another guy I didn’t believe in. Sorry, Danilo. I’m a believer now. My bad. Won’t happen again. He’s been marvelous, averaging 17.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 1.4 threes, 46.1 FG percent, 88.4 FT percent (6.1 attempts) and only 1.6 turnovers. The steals will likely come down a bit, as well as the field goal percentage, but assuming he doesn’t fall into a wicked slump Gallinari is looking like he could finish the season with second round value.

Marc Gasol – At the moment, he is the better Gasol brother. Didn’t see that coming. He and Pau have extremely similar numbers thus far, until you look at the steals and blocks columns where Marc is crushing his big bro. Marc is averaging 2.3 blocks and 1.1 steals, numbers that are often overshadowed by points and rebounds. The loss of Zach Randolph was a boost to Marc, as he’s been getting the ball in the post significantly more and having to play extra minutes.

If you’re thinking like a true fantasy nutcase, you’re probably wondering: “So should I try to sell high on these guys?” Perhaps. For all four of these guys, their value can only decrease. However, the crazy thing is, you might still be able to acquire them at a bargain because their numbers on the surface aren’t very eye-popping. Low turnover rates are usually the last thing most people look at, right? And in Gallinari’s case, his elite free throw shooting is sure to be overlooked. So, trading a superstar like Blake Griffin for one of these guys might appear to be fair, assuming your trade partner is infatuated with points and rebounds and Top 10 Plays.

PICKUPS

Roddy Beaubois – Jason Kidd is expected to miss at least a week because of a calf strain, so Beaubois should be a lock to get minutes in the next few games. In the last two games (his only two starts of the season), he averaged 18 points, 7 assists and 3.5 blocks (!). No, the last stat is not a mistake. Little Roddy is a shot-blocker. We’ll see if he continues to get minutes once Kidd returns, but he must be added regardless.

Chris Kaman – So often we see a player with potential wasting away on a team’s bench. We say, “If only they’d trade him to _________, he’d be a starter and kill it in fantasy.” Well, that might actually happen here. There are legitimate trade talks going down that could make Kaman a starter and push him back into fantasy relevance. He’s been cut in one of my leagues. If he’s available, pick him up and stash him at least for a week or two until we find out where he ends up. Of course, he’s always been injury-riddled but, when healthy, can put up some nice numbers. Please, Golden State, pick up your phone.

Jared Dudley – Been one of the biggest disappointments of the year, but has a chance to redeem himself after being reinserted into the starting lineup. In his first game back on Saturday, he dropped 20 points, added 6 boards, 4 assists, 3 steals, 2 threes and not a single turnover. Plus, the Suns got a rare win against a solid Memphis squad. If you gave up on Dudley, I suggest giving him another chance.

Brandon Bass – He won’t blow you away, but he’s averaging 11.9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game in a Celtics frontcourt that is currently relying heavily on the suffering knees of Kevin Garnett and Jermaine O’Neal. Bass should be a reliable player to own for the rest of the season.

Mo Williams – Even though Chris Paul’s return hurts his opportunity to produce, he’s been using his scarce minutes to put up some efficient scoring. In his last six games, he averaged 20.5 points, 2.5 threes and 1.5 steals, while shooting 57.3 percent from the field.

Vince Carter – Beaubois is definitely the Maverick you want, but if he’s gone, Vince could help you out for a little bit. Once Kidd returns, Vince will likely lose all value but he could give you a boost this week. He had a nice game on Sunday: 21 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 threes and 1 block.

Chris Duhon – Jameer Nelson’s been horrendously inconsistent this year and probably been passed around a couple times in your league. You’d think a point guard who can shoot threes on Dwight Howard’s team would be able to make a killing in fantasy, right? Apparently not. Nelson is expected to miss the Magic’s next game with concussion-like symptoms. Duhon played well enough on Sunday to warrant your attention in deep leagues, finishing with 14 points, 5 assists, 2 threes and 2 steals.

Brendan Haywood – I wouldn’t be very excited about adding him at all, but if you’re in a deep league and quite desperate, give Brenda a call. She’s, I mean, he’s averaging 9.2 rebounds and 2 blocks in the last 5 games. If you’re desperate… just sayin’.

Nate Robinson – Hasn’t been playing many minutes in the last four games, but keep him on your watch list. Does anyone out there trust Stephen Curry’s ankles? Anyone? Didn’t think so. Lil’ Nate undeniably injects life into the offense when he comes in the game, I doubt Mark Jackson will be able to resist playing him more in the future.

Baron Davis – Baron is probably owned, and it’s highly questionable whether or not he’ll produce anything of quality once he finally starts playing (debut keeps getting pushed back – not a good sign). File this under the desperation tab; if you’re looking for something, anything – why not give Baron a whirl?

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  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeLRym4Q-pg nbk

    Hey Charles, have you noticed the year Samuel Dalembert is having? I picked him up in FA week 1, he’s been one of the top 5 players on my squad all season.

  • http://redoftoothandclaw.ca/ niQ

    Someone is considering trading his Dwight for my Marc Gasol in an H2H league. Might be other pieces but those are the mains. What are your thoughts on that? (I know you’ve long hated Dwight but just wanted get your opinion still.) Marc Gasol has clearly been my best Center but in this league the compiled injuries have my team near last place. Should I consider it and just tank FT%? Or should I just wait for all the injuries to heal and see how my team does? (Injured are Maggette, Kidd, Wade every now and then, Baron Davis should be returning soon, Ryan Anderson just came back, Ridnour just came back..)

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeLRym4Q-pg nbk

    what kind of league is it niQ?

  • http://redoftoothandclaw.ca/ niQ

    16 Team H2H. Standard 9 cats.

  • T Bone

    I have Jennings… so glad i kept drafting him (had him every year he has played). The other pg that i am loving just now is Rubio. got him in the late rounds and other than turnovers and fg% he has been amazing. got Jrue in the draft and Calderon as a FA and have just been killing it on pg stats. also picked up Dalembert, who has been great and got Camby now after Bogut went down.
    top in my league so its working for me.
    Only question i have is if i should hold onto Bargs? He has been one of my top scorers and there isnt an obvious player out there to replace him with.
    thoughts?

  • http://redoftoothandclaw.ca/ niQ

    @T Bone. In that case I’d hold onto Bargs. He’s having a career year and the fact that you’re 1st in your league allows you the luxury of holding onto injured players. I don’t know how long he’ll be out though…

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeLRym4Q-pg nbk

    I’d prolly pull the trigger and then substitute winning FT % for Blocks. Pick up Tyrus Thomas if I needed more of a boost.

  • http://slamonline.com/ Charles Peach

    @nbk: Yessir. Great pick up! Dalembert is averaging 10 & 10 w/ 2.4 blocks as a starter. Wish I had him!
    @niQ: If you think you’d still be able to win with a team that punts FTs, then it might be worth a shot. I’d consider it because Wade is an average free throw shooter anyway, so it’s not like you’d be wasting an elite FT talent like Durant. Also, if you decide to do it, you might want to also think about picking up other awful FT shooters: BG, DeAndre, Rondo…
    @T Bone: Calderon as a free agent, wow… nice! Like niQ said, I’d hold on to Bargs. Even though the outlook isn’t great right now, he’s been playing so well this year when healthy that I wouldn’t be able to cut him loose just yet.

  • http://redoftoothandclaw.ca/ niQ

    Thanks guys. I’ll see what the final trade request looks like before accepting.
    @nbk, I’m thinking more on 3′s. My teams is 2nd in the league in blocks due to Gasol, Ibaka, Chandler, and Wade. For 3′s, I’ve got Ryan Anderson, Jason Terry, Kidd, and I guess I’ll look for more 3 point specialists to kill that category.
    @Charles, I’d actually love Rondo, but PG’s are probably the hardest to obtain these days. People hoard them like gold unless they have some good quality ones already like T-Bone over there. lol

  • Holiday

    The other thing about Millsap people over look is how he stifles opponents, by the numbers he really contained P. Gasol, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, and Dirk… there numbers were considerably lower than average against him!

  • http://slamonline.com/ Charles Peach

    @Holiday: Good point! There are still a lot of areas of the game that aren’t accounted for in fantasy. Holding any of those guys to 15 points or less should be worth something in fantasy!

  • T Bone

    Thanks for the comments… i want to wait it out for Bargs too… hope it aint too long.

  • Mariano

    @T Bone: I’d hold onto Bargs.. I’m first in my league too and I also have Bargs, and he’s been the key to my team along with Rudy Gay. He provides with points, boards, and, every now and then, blocks, which is great!

    I also picked up Andre Miller recently, and he’s been amazing!

  • Waters1981

    Think that Kaman is going to get some playing time in, r was last nights 179 and 3 just because of injuries. Thinking about dropping Boris Diaw for Kaman.

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