Be Careful What You Wish For

Which draft slot pumps out the best players?

6. TENTH OVERALL PICKS

2012: Austin Rivers (N/A)
2011: Jimmer Fredette (N/A)
2010: Paul George (N/A)
2009: Brandon Jennings (B)
2008: Brook Lopez (B)
2007: Spencer Hawes (C)
2006: Mouhamed Sene (F)
2005: Andrew Bynum (A)
2004: Luke Jackson (F)
2003: Jarvis Hayes (F)
2002: Caron Butler (B)
2001: Joe Johnson (B)
2000: Keyon Dooling (D)
Composite GPA: 1.9

Tenth overall has been surprisingly consistent over the years. Only Bynum is an A-level player (though Lopez, Jennings and/or George may join him one day), but a lot of talent has come out of the spot.

Johnson and Butler have had legitimate all-star careers and are still producing at a high level about a decade after being drafted. Hawes is hardly the center of attention in a given game, but he’s a solid big man with a real ability to stretch the floor. Dooling has had a very nice career as a Ninth Man.

Of course, Hayes, Jackson and Sene have to ruin the party for everyone, though. In fairness, Hayes was good for a few buckets off the bench for five or six years, making him pretty good for an F player. On the flip side, it’s hard to be less productive than Jackson and Sene were.

5. SEVENTH OVERALL PICKS

2012: Harrison Barnes (N/A)
2011: Bismack Biyombo (N/A)
2010: Greg Monroe (N/A)
2009: Stephen Curry (B)
2008: Eric Gordon (B)
2007: Corey Brewer (D)
2006: Randy Foye (D)
2005: Charlie Villanueva (D)
2004: Luol Deng (B)
2003: Kirk Hinrich (C)
2002: Nene (B)
2001: Eddie Griffin (D)
2000: Chris Mihm (D)
Composite GPA: 1.9

There aren’t any sure-fire Hall of Fame players (yet) on this list, but it’s a nice collection of talent. Curry and Gordon have had similar careers thus far. Both are on the brink of entering elite scorer territory, but need to stay healthy to do so. Injuries have plagued both careers to this point.

Speaking of good players needing to stay on the court, enter Nene and Deng. Both of these guys are battling injury problems right now, too. Nene has missed some time with a heel injury while Deng has a bad wrist. Both injuries very well may leak into the upcoming season.

What’s nice about this group is that even the bottom guys aren’t that bad. Foye, Brewer and Villanueva are good enough to chip in with fifteen minutes a night. Hinrich is slated to take over the starting point guard gig in Chicago until Derrick Rose returns. Mihm was a typical good-enough center for a number of years for some pretty good teams. Griffin never quite reached his potential but could fill up the stat sheet on a given night.

On top of all of that, Monroe looks like he’s got perennial All-Star written all over him, while Barnes has the chance to be a very good scorer. Nice work, sevens.

4. FOURTH OVERALL PICKS

2012: Dion Waiters (N/A)
2011: Tristan Thompson (N/A)
2010: Wes Johnson (N/A)
2009: Tyreke Evans (B)
2008: Russell Westbrook (A+)
2007: Mike Conley (C)
2006: Tyrus Thomas (D)
2005: Chris Paul (A+)
2004: Shaun Livingston (D)
2003: Chris Bosh (B)
2002: Drew Gooden (C)
2001: Eddy “Integral To Miami’s Championship Run” Curry (D)
2000: Marcus Fizer (D)
Composite GPA: 2.4

This bunch has got it all. First, the good.

Westbrook and Paul are among the League’s three-or-four best point guards. Evans and Bosh are perfect number two guys on a good team. Conley and Gooden have both had productive careers by just doing their thing—not more, not less.

But there’s a lot of bad here, too. Tyrus Thomas stayed out of F territory because his numbers aren’t that bad, but he’s just been an incredibly frustrating pro. He averaged 11 and 6.5 to go along with two blocks and a steal in the ’08-09 season—the only season he’s played more than 25 minutes per game. But after averaging 5.5 and 3.5 last season for Charlotte, it’s starting to look like his window may be closed.

Livingston can play a little bit, and, to his credit, is still floating around the League. He’s good for about 7 points per night off the bench, but his career has been a total letdown.

Curry produced for about five years, but then abruptly stopped. He averaged 13 and 5 on 54.5 percent shooting in ’07-08, but has been a bench warmer ever since.

Unfortunately it seems like more rough times are ahead, as Wesley Johnson was shipped away by Minnesota this summer after two very unproductive seasons. Thompson had an up-and-down rookie season, so it’s too early to project what his career will be like. Waiters may be a great fit alongside Kyrie Irving in Cleveland, but was largely seen as a reach at No. 4.

3. FIFTH OVERALL PICKS

2012: Thomas Robinson (N/A)
2011: Jonas Valanciunas (N/A)
2010: DeMarcus Cousins (N/A)
2009: Ricky Rubio (A)
2008: Kevin Love (A+)
2007: Jeff Green (C)
2006: Shelden Williams (D)
2005: Raymond Felton (C)
2004: Devin Harris (C)
2003: Dwyane Wade (A+)
2002: Nikoloz Tskitishvili (F)
2001: Jason Richardson (B)
2000: Mike Miller (C)
Composite GPA: 2.6

Good-looking bunch of ballers here, save for Tskitishvili, who I won’t even get into.

Wade and Love are established beasts already, and Rubio looks well on his way to getting there. JRich was one of the League’s most electrifying dunkers for a long time, and was an underrated scorer as well. Career averages of roughly 17.5 points, 5 boards, 3 dimes and 2 threes earn him a B.

Harris and Felton are about as equal as two point guards could be. Miller has been consistently draining threes for over a decade. Jeff Green hasn’t really shown that he was worth a top-five selection yet, but has been a steady contributor in OKC and Boston. If he can stay healthy, he definitely has an opportunity to be B-type of a player. Even Shelden Williams is a productive rebounds guy, though he obviously wasn’t worth the pick used on him by Atlanta.

Additionally, it seems like boat loads of talent will soon be joining those guys. Cousins is the NBA’s third-best center already. Valanciunas and Robinson may both be in the running for SBROY (Second-Best Rookie Of The Year—blame Anthony Davis) in the upcoming season.

2. THIRD OVERALL PICKS

2012: Bradley Beal (N/A)
2011: Enes Kanter (N/A)
2010: Derrick Favors (N/A)
2009: James Harden (B)
2008: OJ Mayo (C)
2007: Al Horford (B)
2006: Adam Morrison (F)
2005: Deron Willams (A+)
2004: Ben Gordon (C)
2003: Carmelo Anthony (A+)
2002: Mike Dunleavy (C)
2001: Pau Gasol (A)
2000: Darius Miles (D)
Composite GPA: 2.7

The third overall picks were hard to grade, but anyway you slice it, it’s a group flush with talent.

Williams and Anthony are, depending on who you ask, top-five, 10 or 15 players. Gasol is starting to slow down a little, but he’s probably the best passing big man the League has to offer, and is an excellent scorer and rebounder as well.

Harden nearly deserves an A, but isn’t yet a truly elite player. There’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll get there soon, though. Mayo and Horford may jump a grade before long as well, but, like Harden, aren’t there yet.

Dunleavy and Gordon are—or, at least, were—both rock-solid players. Miles had four solid seasons followed by three better seasons followed by a total breakdown. Morrison was pretty good in his rookie year, but a disaster after that.

The future is looking very bright for third overall picks, too. Kanter and Beal have lots to prove, but Favors appears to be on the track to stardom. In five starts at center last season, he averaged 15.8 points on 51.7 percent shooting as well as 11.2 boards per game. A small sample size, yes, but impressive nonetheless.

1. FIRST OVERALL PICKS

2012: Anthony Davis (N/A)
2011: Kyrie Irving (N/A)
2010: John Wall (N/A)
2009: Blake Griffin (A+)
2008: Derrick Rose (A+)
2007: Greg Oden (F)
2006: Andrea Bargnani (C)
2005: Andrew Bogut (B)
2004: Dwight Howard (A+)
2003: LeBron James (A+)
2002: Yao (A)
2001: Kwame Brown (F)
2000: Kenyon Martin (C)
Composite GPA: 3.1

Finally, we reach the No. 1 spot, which belongs to the No. 1 picks. Five out of 10 receive As. Three more receive a C or better. That means that the top pick has been churning out stars at a 50 percent clip, good players at an 80 percent clip, and busts at just 20 percent.

A quick rundown of the top talents here. LeBron and Dwight you know all about. Rose and Griffin are A+ guys as long as Rose comes back from his injury healthy and Griffin’s good health continues. Yao was nearly an A+, but foot problems shortened his career greatly. Unfortunately that leaves him with an A.

What’s even more impressive than the players picked in the past are the three players not factored in. Wall seems like he’ll be a B player, with turnovers and a poor mid-range game holding him back from elite status. Kyrie is a near-lock for an A. The same can be said about Davis, though I’d like to see him suit up at least once before handing out that honor.

Sure there have been some letdowns. Kwame’s failures have been very well documented. Oden’s career has been derailed by injuries to a wild extent. Bogut has struggled to stay on the floor as well, and his offensive game never really took off. Bargnani simply can’t play defense.

Still, though, first overall picks are historically very safe bets to at least contribute. And it’s no surprise. There’s always at least one truly elite talent in college, and so the best of the best gets selected first. If the rest of the League is lucky, there’s spillover past the top spot.